The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[Turnbull2000]

Think we're looking at 7-8th now, assuming FFP hinders us in Jan and we struggle to amass many points prior to then. We're pretty much missing an entire outfield 10, and many quality one's at that. If we can strengthen in the summer, we will hopefully build up a more sustainable momentum.

 

There's a lot riding on increasing commercial income, and our rival's owners are doing whatever it takes to obstruct that. Otherwise regular top 4 could be beyond us.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Turnbull2000

[wormy]

12 minutes ago, Jaqen said:

Really can't see anyone wanting away already. Any drop in position won't be down to a lack of ambition or fault of the team, it's just a brutal schedule with a ridiculous amount of injuries that is hurting us.

 

Our signings bought into the project and the bigger picture when they joined it would be odd if they suddenly wanted to jump ship after dropping a few places in really hard circumstances. We should be able to go pretty big in the summer window and I think we'll be in a really strong position to challenge for top four next season regardless of where we finish this one.

 

Not to head down the never-ending FFP rabbit hole but has there been speculative math done on this? Or is it just an expectation with the amount of commercial deals we've done?

 

Not that I'm knowledgeable in any sense, was just expecting us to still need to 'be resourceful' for a few more windows yet. 

[BullyDogs]

If us and Man United exit the champions league early that could really put paid to 5th place getting another CL spot. Would need the other English teams to go deep 

 

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by BullyDogs

[wormy]

13 minutes ago, BullyDogs said:

If us and Man United exit the champions league early that could really put paid to 5th place getting another CL spot. Would need the other English teams to go deep 

 

 

 

 

Positive runs from clubs in Europa and Conference should still help though, shouldn't it? 

[Kid Icarus]

Honestly, it's mad how season after season people fall into the trap of forgetting that things always change, teams go through peaks and troughs and nothing is anywhere near done until the end of the season.

 

It's always at its best when it includes thinking that either of the North London teams have something sewn up.

[Kilcline]

I think if we're in Europe again next year then this season will have been a decent one.

 

Assuming us or one of the other big boys win both the domestic cups then 7th will be enough for Europe again, and even if we end up in the Conference League finishing 7th it'll be straight into the group stage, no July qualifying round nonsense.

 

Does anyone know what happens with the countries who get the extra CL places, as in does their place for the "other" competition go to the next team in their league, or will it just end up someone gets a bye in the first qualifying round to make up the "spare" extra slot?

[Geordie Ahmed]

8 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Honestly, it's mad how season after season people fall into the trap of forgetting that things always change, teams go through peaks and troughs and nothing is anywhere near done until the end of the season.

 

It's always at its best when it includes thinking that either of the North London teams have something sewn up.

Yeah, I find some of the defeatist posts very strange

 

We're 6 points off 4th and 5 points off 5th, with 78 points still to play for 

 

If at the halfway stage the deficit is double figures then fair enough but all it takes is for us to get a few players back and go on a run

 

Nothing is decided at this early stage

 

[KDT]

People will always shit the bed, I do worry at times how a certain section of our fan base make it through the week.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by KDT

[Gallowgate Toon]

Howe is a streak king. Plenty of football to play yet.

[STM]

28 minutes ago, KDT said:

People will always shit the bed, I do worry at times how a certain section of our fan base make it through the week.

 

 

 

Mind, I will be devastated for the next few days. 

 

I just won't turn on Howe and the players.

[TBG]

8 points behind City.

[Skeletor]

5 minutes ago, TBG said:

15 years behind City.

 

[The College Dropout]

2 hours ago, Kid Icarus said:

Reminder that we're 2 points up on this point last season and 5 points up on a team-by-team basis vs last season. 

 

Having played much harder teams, played more games, and with an injury crisis.

 

If anything this season is much impressive so far than last. Dunno why anyone would draw any conclusions in November, having seen what we can do, with players to return, and 5th potentially being a CL place.

 

For all the talk of other teams improving, people seem to have forgotten those that have regressed or not improved at the same time. It's all about points total.

 

 

 

That is true. But last season we went on some mean runs especially away from home. Brentford, Southampton, Everton, Fulham, *Spurs*, Forest for example. 
 

There’s also games at home we drew that we could better. But in a lot of those away days we were so sharp when it mattered. 
 

 

 

[The Prophet]

Personally I think people are reading into the away form a bit too much.

 

West Ham was the only game we haven't won this season that we won last, that and Wolves came after huge efforts in the Champions League too, while Bournemouth came during a full blown injury crisis.

[Kanji]

Didn’t know the league’s CL spots were decided after 12 matches in the premier league season.  

[The College Dropout]

Our away performances in the CL have been bad so far too. Good opposition mind but we didn’t play well.  

[Myleftboot]

43 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Our away performances in the CL have been bad so far too. Good opposition mind but we didn’t play well.  

We had some good opportunities against dortmund though,if Joelinton had buried that header it could have been a different story.

[Erikse]

2 hours ago, The Prophet said:

Personally I think people are reading into the away form a bit too much.

 

West Ham was the only game we haven't won this season that we won last, that and Wolves came after huge efforts in the Champions League too, while Bournemouth came during a full blown injury crisis.

 

We've taken 2 points less from the same fixtures, and this also includes an easier fixture (win vs Sheffield rather than u vs Leeds). While at home we have taken 7 points more than the fixtures of last season. There's clearly a change so far from last season where the difference between home and away seems a lot more significant.

 

Also I thinks it's even more relevant to look at it in relation to the other teams as each season is different. We're 15th in the away table, last year we finished 3rd. Ofcourse the games were tough, but most of the away games in this league are tough for any team.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Erikse

[The Prophet]

Just now, Erikse said:

 

We've taken 2 points less from the same fixtures, and this also includes an easier fixture (win vs Sheffield rather than u vs Leeds). While at home we have taken 7 points more than the fixtures of last season. There's clearly a change so far from last season where the difference between home and away seems a lot more significant.

 

Also I thinks it's even more relevant to look at it in relation to the other teams as each season is different. We're 15th in the away table for the entire league. Ofcourse the games were tough, but most of the away games in this league are tough for any team.

 

Last season, most of our points away from home came against bottom half teams. We've played three so far, so it's a canny small sample size.

 

Context is important too. One game a week and I have no doubt we see the game out at Wolves and West Ham.

[Erikse]

16 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Last season, most of our points away from home came against bottom half teams. We've played three so far, so it's a canny small sample size.

 

Context is important too. One game a week and I have no doubt we see the game out at Wolves and West Ham.

 

I get that, but I'm not saying it's like a big worry or anything, I'm just saying there's a clear difference so far this season in terms of away vs home. Out of all teams (except bottom 4), no other team has taken 75% or more of their points in the home games like we have. None of the other teams playing in Europe has such a large difference either, only Villa comes close. Yes, we have more games this season, but we have still improved at home from last season by 7 points despite the added games. Seems like improving that away form will be key going forward, because we're doing amazingly well at home.

 

Also, we've played Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal at home, so it's not like the difference can be explained by the level of the opposition.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Erikse

[Stottie]

I've been bullish about Top 4/5 but am starting to get concerned now the injuries have piled up and Tonali has been banned.

Neither of things could have been predicted. How many teams buy a player and then see him banned for the season for something done at his previous club? The injuries have included freak upper body ones like Murphy and Dan Burn.

 

Regarding the home/away split I thought we looked knackered second half at Wolves and that let them back in. We also looked knackered all game at Dortmund and super knackered at Bournemouth at the weekend. West Ham was just a good recovery and great goal by them. Conversely, we did win at Old Trafford, so I think the timing of some of the games has been a factor, rather than just the home/away factor.

 

 

[Ronaldo]

As happy as I was for us to win, that Man U game was an anomaly. Our B team against a side who, almost to a man, didn’t give a fuck. I genuinely don’t think I’ve ever seen a side throw a game at home to that extent against us.

[Cronky]

The fixture list for the second half of the season looks a bit easier, and we should have players coming back around the New Year. We could finish well and momentum is very important.

 

It's a matter of sticking this difficult period out until the injury crisis sorts itself out.

 

Another striker and midfield player in January would help too.

[The College Dropout]

12 hours ago, Myleftboot said:

We had some good opportunities against dortmund though,if Joelinton had buried that header it could have been a different story.

2-0 was a fair enough scoreline. 1.38xg to 0.55xg. We didn't deserve anything and didn't play well.

 

12 hours ago, Erikse said:

 

We've taken 2 points less from the same fixtures, and this also includes an easier fixture (win vs Sheffield rather than u vs Leeds). While at home we have taken 7 points more than the fixtures of last season. There's clearly a change so far from last season where the difference between home and away seems a lot more significant.

 

Also I thinks it's even more relevant to look at it in relation to the other teams as each season is different. We're 15th in the away table, last year we finished 3rd. Ofcourse the games were tough, but most of the away games in this league are tough for any team.

 

 

 

Aye. Winning away comfortably at West Ham, Everton, Fulham, Southampton, and Leicester.. and then big wins against Forest, Brentford, Spurs.  Good draws at Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Man U. That will be difficult to replicate. We were better in our defeat to City last season too.

 

From the games I've seen - we've not looked good away from home at all bar Sheff U and Man U in the cup. The press has largely been off, and we've conceded 2+ a few times. Obviously the extra injuries and games is the most significant factor.

[The College Dropout]

4 hours ago, Ronaldo said:

As happy as I was for us to win, that Man U game was an anomaly. Our B team against a side who, almost to a man, didn’t give a fuck. I genuinely don’t think I’ve ever seen a side throw a game at home to that extent against us.

The LC victories have been great.

 

But would we have been better off losing to City and playing 2 less games? Almiron & Wilson didn't need the Man U game in their legs (Targett too I guess).

 

I'm just thinking out loud. Learnt a lot about Livra and Hall in those games.