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8 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

Looking at this there's 2 exceptional sides. And a glut of teams at about the same expected goal difference. With Bournemouth & Forest as outliers.

forest performing as the 13th best side in the league but somehow getting the 3rd most points sounds about right to me based on what I’ve seen of them

 

cannot see them maintaining this level of good fortune for the rest of the season

 

 

Edited by Smal

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7 minutes ago, Smal said:

forest performing as the 13th best side in the league but somehow getting the 3rd most points sounds about right to me based on what I’ve seen of them

 

cannot see them maintaining this level of good fortune for the rest of the season

 

 

 

What about when they beat us on Sunday?

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10 minutes ago, Smal said:

forest performing as the 13th best side in the league but somehow getting the 3rd most points sounds about right to me based on what I’ve seen of them

 

cannot see them maintaining this level of good fortune for the rest of the season

 

 

 

They got a battering which might distort the numbers a bit. Outside the Liverpool and the other game they got battered in, I don't think they give up lots of quality chances. Maybe a lot of low quality chances that add up.

 

I fancy Forest to keep it tight at the back ish.

 

It's Bournemouth's A1 finishing that I think is harder to sustain.

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26 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

They got a battering which might distort the numbers a bit. Outside the Liverpool and the other game they got battered in, I don't think they give up lots of quality chances. Maybe a lot of low quality chances that add up.

 

I fancy Forest to keep it tight at the back ish.

 

It's Bournemouth's A1 finishing that I think is harder to sustain.

Surely them just winning 7-0 distorts it back the other way?

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We need a statement win on the weekend. We are at home, they have Chris Wood as their star player, we have Alexander Isak. On paper we are much better than them, lose and we have given ourselves a pretty big mountain to climb.

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Can’t help but feel like the Brighton and West Ham games at home are going to bite us in arse come the end of the season. We’d be 6pts clear in 3rd at the moment if we won them. 

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12 games left, I'd be amazed if Forest and Bournemouth get more than 18 points. This is the point where no matter how well they done for 20-25 games you see how difficult it is to be consistent for 38 games to get top 4.

 

Question is who will put the run together of 24-30 points and pull a little clear of the pack or puts a bit of pressure on.

 

Second question is then what NUFC turns up for the run in

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Must win is an overused statement but if we had lost today then I don’t think we would have caught Forest, so the result was what mattered.

 

If 5th is going to get Champions League and Man Utd and Spurs have imploded, then there is no better opportunity to qualify, we just need some consistency to be the best of a pretty average bunch.

 

Such a strange season.

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We could be down to 9th by the time we play west ham with us being the Monday night game.

 

People need to not piss their pants and wait and see how it pans out though. We've got a decent little run of fixtures on paper after the cup final

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1 minute ago, jack j said:

We could be down to 9th by the time we play west ham with us being the Monday night game.

 

People need to not piss their pants and wait and see how it pans out though. We've got a decent little run of fixtures on paper after the cup final

Not sure we can ? Most of the teams around us play each other.

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Annoyingly  I am going to assume we might lose that West Ham away. Shouldn't happen but it's the last game before the final and we saw last time how it can effect players mentally. 

 

But all of our remaining home games after that all look winnable. A couple will be harder than earlier in the season, like a revitalised Everton for example. But there are 18 points available from home fixtures alone. 

 

There are a couple of tougher away fixtures in there. But if we do the business at home then everything we get on the road can be a bonus. 

 

I just have doubts about our consistency and squad depth and of course a lot depends on what the other teams around us do with it being so tight.

Villa look a threat now with their injection of fresh faces going into the remainder of the season. 

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Fingers crossed with it, but we've been avoiding draws and that means we can lose a few and get dejected by it, but are still accumulating the three points when we play better. Both Villa and Brighton have fewer losses than us, but are below us for winning fewer games. 

 

fwiw, we drew more games in the season we finished fourth (P38 W19 D15 L5) than we have since (P64 W31 D11 L22). Even just a continuation of that form for our remaining twelve games, W6 D2 L4 would give us 64 points and a strong shout for top five.

 

We've been conceding a lot of goals recently, so that is the major concern.

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