The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[GideonShandy]

45% chance of Champions League, apparently

 

www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cr46erzp1e0o

 

 

Edited Monday at 05:52 by GideonShandy
typo

[Stifler]

1 hour ago, GideonShandy said:

45% chance of Champions League, apparently

 

www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cr46erzp1e0o

That could change massively in a week or so.

[astraguy]

Aston Villa
Wolves (a), Ipswich (h), Chelsea (h), Palace (a), Brentford (a)
Nottingham Forest
Brighton (h), Fulham (a), Newcastle (a), Arsenal (h), Manchester City (h)
Newcastle United
Fulham (h), Manchester City (a), Forest (h), Liverpool (a), West Ham (a)
AFC Bournemouth
Liverpool (h), Southampton (a), Wolves (h), Brighton (a), Spurs (a)
Chelsea
West Ham (h), Brighton (a), Aston Villa (a), Southampton (h), Leicester (h)

[Andy]

Is there a more useless analysis tool in football than Opta Probability btw?

 

45% chance of top 5. So basically we might or might not. Aye class insight cheers. 

[Tsunami]

Looking at Bournemouth’s fixtures they should be aiming top 4 or 5. If they can keep their momentum they can get mighty close.

[Elma]

Despite Forest being three points ahead, and four ahead of Bournemouth, I'm more worried about Bournemouth than Forest.

 

Goal difference is a huge indicator and although teams can hang on, winning games narrowly, and manage to finish in a high position (we only had a GD of +5 when we finished fifth in 2011/12), it's unusual.

 

Villa have been a bit scrappy all season and although they have great home form (only loss is Arsenal), that's because they still have to play Liverpool, Forest, us and Chelsea there. Their GD suggests they will struggle.

 

Of course, before the weekend Forest's GD was better than Bournemouth's and Bournemouth are scoring goals they shouldn't be at the moment (nine from just over four xG in the last two games alone).

 

However, Bournemouth did win both comfortably and deserved to. Will be interesting to see how Forest respond to such a battering when they play Brighton at home in the early kick off on Saturday. 

[SUPERTOON]

Still think it’s Chelsea and Man City we will need to finish ahead of for top 5.

[Dr. TC]

3 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Still think it’s Chelsea and Man City we will need to finish ahead of for top 5.

But if we're above Forest and Bournemouth we don't have to be above either. 

 

45% seems very low to me. Think we'll finish above both, plus Chelsea, and be fourth 

[Unbelievable]

18 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

Still think it’s Chelsea and Man City we will need to finish ahead of for top 5.

Surely not both?

[SUPERTOON]

12 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

Surely not both?

Yeah my mistake, they will be the top 4 I meant. 

[Stottie]

That's the BBC quoting out of date Opta analysis. They now see us as more likely to get CL than Forest.

You can get the latest Opta numbers here.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/08/opta-football-predictions

[Froggy]

21 minutes ago, Stottie said:

That's the BBC quoting out of date Opta analysis. They now see us as more likely to get CL than Forest.

You can get the latest Opta numbers here.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/08/opta-football-predictions

 

0.1% chance of relegation. Get in.

[54]

25 minutes ago, Stottie said:

That's the BBC quoting out of date Opta analysis. They now see us as more likely to get CL than Forest.

You can get the latest Opta numbers here.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/08/opta-football-predictions

A 0.1% chance of 13th, worrying.

[Vaj]

15 hours ago, Checko said:

Had a look at points for 5th place in the last 10 years, from most recent to 10 years ago it's:

 

66, 67, 69, 66, 62, 70, 70, 75, 66, 64

 

So I'd say 66-70 points would be pretty typical.

You could also look at the number of points 6th got as opposed to what 5th got, as that's all you would have needed in those seasons to get top 5 and it makes it look even more attainable (added a point for each season in case of GD):

 

64, 63, 59, 66, 60, 67, 64, 70, 64, 63

 

The main caveat there is with top 5 likely being CL the points total could be at the higher end as more teams are pushing hard towards the end of the season that have a chance. But this shows that typically you could get there with the lower end of your range. If it was c.66 points for 5th then we only need 26 points from 15 games, could be done with 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats...feels very doable!

[Jewel]

Could do with Bournemouth cooling down a bit.

[Checko]

15 minutes ago, Vaj said:

You could also look at the number of points 6th got as opposed to what 5th got, as that's all you would have needed in those seasons to get top 5 and it makes it look even more attainable (added a point for each season in case of GD):

 

64, 63, 59, 66, 60, 67, 64, 70, 64, 63

 

The main caveat there is with top 5 likely being CL the points total could be at the higher end as more teams are pushing hard towards the end of the season that have a chance. But this shows that typically you could get there with the lower end of your range. If it was c.66 points for 5th then we only need 26 points from 15 games, could be done with 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats...feels very doable!

Yeah that's probably a better way of looking at it.

[TRon]

4 minutes ago, Jewel said:

Could do with Bournemouth cooling down a bit.

 

You would have thought it would have happened over the last few weeks with all their injuries, but they seem to be going from strength to strength. Hopefully it's just adrenaline of winning and fatigue will settle in over the next month or two.

[astraguy]

21 hours ago, Karjala said:

Do people really think 5th will be as much as 70 points? Surely 60 is closer to the mark.

 

70 would need another 29 points from 15 matches, unlikely.

 

 

 

 

The aim should be 70 and above with the amount of teams going for it, with less game time then say Chelsea we should do it if the performances get better

[healthyaddiction]

6 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

You would have thought it would have happened over the last few weeks with all their injuries, but they seem to be going from strength to strength. Hopefully it's just adrenaline of winning and fatigue will settle in over the next month or two.

Iraola will get manager of the month for January and then the curse will hit.

 

 

Edited Monday at 10:20 by healthyaddiction

[Elma]

70 points will absolutely get Champions League football and should be the target, whether that be top four or five.

 

That's probably something like seven wins from eight at home, coupled with two wins and two draws away. The way we're playing, our away form may take more of the strain out of the home games. 

 

We pretty much need to maintain a 2 points/game average from here on in.

[jack j]

Just been looking  at previous seasons what points the 5th placed team got.. 8 or 9 wins and a few draws from our last 15 games hopefully be enough.

2011/12  65
2012/13 72
2013/14 72
2014/15 64
2015/16 66
2016/17 75
2017/18 70
2018/19 70
2019/20 62
2020/21 66
2021/22 69
2022/23 67
2023/24 66

[TRon]

22 minutes ago, healthyaddiction said:

Iraola will get manager of the month for January and then the curse will hit.

 

 

 

 

 

Bournemouth will definitely have more eyes on them after the last couple of results, hopefully that will mean teams put in a bit extra against them and/or they start to feel added pressure with the expectation.

[The College Dropout]

Not worried about other teams massively. If we get to 68 points we'll qualify for the CL. 5 other teams aren't going to do that, doesn't matter which 5.

 

Those 6 clubs are so close together for a reason after 23 games. There's reasons for and against everyone. Across all factors we probably rank slap in the middle. 4th-6th. 

[Paully]

Top 8 should be enough for a European place and we're definitely finishing at least there!

[TRC]

Expect Forest to drop away with their fixtures coming up.