Marc Guehi

[Unbelievable]

2 minutes ago, et tu brute said:

Again I trust them before someone on the internet who hasn't a clue what the plans are and what is actually happening. I'll wait until the picture is clearer probably at the start of next month

 

Your trust is deserved mate. I trust them too. The owners and management team have given us no reason whatsoever to think they have anything but the club's best interest at heart.

 

At the start of next month we will now who has come and who has gone and what that means (or have a decent idea about what it means) for our squad, player trading position, amortisation and wages. Then we will have the January transfer window and the early next summer transfer window, and I am trying to say is that from what we currently know or can reasonably assume we cannot afford to spend the fees and wages for Guehi and a similar profile right winger (plus Osula) without a MAJOR increase in revenue from somewhere, be it an unexpected spike in commercial revenue, the sale of a half dozen of our fringe players for decent fees or the sale of a star player.

 

What they actually plan to do to ensure PSR compliancy will probably be known much later than the end of next month. I trust them to make the correct decisions either way even if that means losing a player I'd love for us to be able to keep.

[LFEE]

I don’t pretend to understand PSR but these posts are a reality check of the situation as it stands. The Guehi deal makes no sense to me. We are buying him at his highest stock price if the reported figures are close. Let’s find the next Guehi and keep hold of all our purples next summer. If he’s available for £45m then you might have a dilemma if its the player you REALLY want but it sounds like its going to be closer to £65m I really don’t get it.

 

Lets see how it plays out over the next two weeks as you’d think they like a purple for Southampton if not the Sela Cup.

 

 

 

[TheBrownBottle]

41 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

In any case, he may be off by the odd million, but the gist of what he said is unfortunately true. People who think we can spend big simply because the 2021/22 70m loss has fallen off our 3 year period and we've we've got some money in for Minteh and Andersen are sadly mistaken due to the rise of our cost levels. The guy says we will "only" need a 17m profit from player trading this year. Let that sink in people.

Not quite - we don’t need to make a profit in transfers; we need any new amortised spending to be offset by sales to the tune of more than £17m.  We could spend vastly more than we bring in, though of course we’d need to keep that income level up in future years

[Max Cherry]

I like to think the club won't blow all of our PSR allowance on one position when they know we need a RW. Either the PSR stuff is pure guesswork from journos, or there's new revenue coming in soon. 

[PRL]

8 minutes ago, LFEE said:

I don’t pretend to understand PSR but these posts are a reality check of the situation as it stands. The Guehi deal makes no sense to me. We are buying him at his highest stock price if the reported figures are close. Let’s find the next Guehi and keep hold of all our purples next summer. If he’s available for £45m then you might have a dilemma if its the player you REALLY want but it sounds like its going to be closer to £65m I really don’t get it.

 

Lets see how it plays out over the next two weeks as you’d think they like a purple for Southampton if not the Sela Cup.

 

 

 

I would assume the majority of our purples have agreed to stay for another season and see where we are, so the club view may be to sign 1-2 made for first 11 players to get us to best position possible in the hope of keeping at least all bar one, rather than having to be fending off interest in all of them if we finish outside Euro places again. 

 

 

Edited August 5 by PRL

[r0cafella]

9 minutes ago, Elliottman said:

Why dont people just enjoy the ride and trust those in charge? Seems like a lot time spent worrying about something which is completely out of your hands  

I’m enjoying the ride personally, I’m also enjoying witnessing how we navigate FFP it certain adds another element to things. 
 

We flew close to the wind on this earlier summer, thankfully the cost was extremely low imo. I also wouldn’t class discussion and worry but hey ho. 

[LFEE]

4 minutes ago, Elliottman said:

Why dont people just enjoy the ride and trust those in charge? Seems like a lot time spent worrying about something which is completely out of your hands  

You can discuss things and still enjoy the ride. I know I do. Find it quite educating the discussions. Think a lot of fans would benefit from it also when they expect us to spend £200m this window. I’ll admit I was under the impression originally we could buy similar to our Trippier/Targett/Burn/Bruno window which would be around £70m in total fees approximately.

[Turnbull2000]

19 minutes ago, et tu brute said:

I don't know what is going to happen and neither do you and that's my point. I'll wait until announcements on commercial/sponsorship deals are made (probably delayed due to the City case) and the transfer window is over, to be able to see a clearer picture of what is happening.

 

 

Been waiting over a year for some announcements to be made. Likewise with the ground. Don't have any reason to believe there are some sponsorships pending approval. We could have had some easy hits by now regardless of the breakaway six and PL trying to stand in the way.

 

 

Edited August 5 by Turnbull2000

[Dr Venkman]

21 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

You don't think what we can spend this year is relevant in a thread where we're discussing potentially smashing our transfer record on a centre back is relevant..?

Relevant, sure. Exceptionally dull, in every fucking thread.

[mattypnufc]

2 minutes ago, Dr Venkman said:

Relevant, sure. Exceptionally dull, in every fucking thread.

This.

[Bimpy474]

8 minutes ago, LFEE said:

I don’t pretend to understand PSR but these posts are a reality check of the situation as it stands. The Guehi deal makes no sense to me. We are buying him at his highest stock price if the reported figures are close. Let’s find the next Guehi and keep hold of all our purples next summer. If he’s available for £45m then you might have a dilemma if its the player you REALLY want but it sounds like its going to be closer to £65m I really don’t get it.

 

Lets see how it plays out over the next two weeks as you’d think they like a purple for Southampton if not the Sela Cup.

 

 

 

 

I suppose the way to look at it is, we're not just buying potential or to fill gaps anymore. We're buying proven players, it means we're no longer in upstarts but established as a force.

 

Prices come in higher now for proven players. I'm not getting to hung up on the price for Guehi. Aged 24, English, proven in Premier League, an international. He was never going to be cheap.

[et tu brute]

3 minutes ago, Turnbull2000 said:

 

Been waiting over a year for some announcements to be made. Likewise with the ground. Don't have any reason to believe there are some sponsorships pending approval. We could have had some easy hits by now regardless of the breakaway six and PL trying to stand in the way.

 

 

 

Probably due to the city case waiting for the decision. I've said it for months that I think everything will be a lot clearer after the transfer windy is closed. 

[Unbelievable]

3 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

Not quite - we don’t need to make a profit in transfers; we need any new amortised spending to be offset by sales to the tune of more than £17m.  We could spend vastly more than we bring in, though of course we’d need to keep that income level up in future years

 

I understand that outgoing fees (and wages) would be amortised and incoming fees would not, thereby dampening the effect of incoming vs outgoing. However, we have already heavily used that principle to get to where we are. Consider these figures:

 

 

Our wages have gone up by 30m from 2023 to 2024. Our amortisation (fees for incoming transfers spread over contract duration) has gone up about 25m in the same period. Other expenses have gone up 10m. That is a cost increase of 65m  per year, every year (until player is sold or contract extended). We're turning a massive operational loss of 70m per year with our current squad. That is before any new incoming transfers. A Guehi for 65m and on 140k/week would add 13m amortisation and 7m in wages, or 20m total every year for the next five years. A RW of the same level, another 20m every year for the next five years. Our yearly operational loss would then quickly rise to over 100m. On average we are allowed a 35m loss per year under PSR. 

 

So could you explain to me how we could continue to "spend vastly more than we bring in"? That is what we have done in the last 3 years to get to where we are today. I don't see how that is sustainable without massively increasing commercial revenue or player trading profit.

 

What am I missing?

 

 

[TheBrownBottle]

6 minutes ago, Max Cherry said:

I like to think the club won't blow all of our PSR allowance on one position when they know we need a RW. Either the PSR stuff is pure guesswork from journos, or there's new revenue coming in soon. 

I know it won’t go down well with a few on here, but football finances aren’t really guesswork nor do they take an accountant to work out roughly what they are. 

 

Football clubs’ incomes are both a matter of public record and based on publicly-announced deals.  So we know how much base revenue a club makes from the TV deal (the biggest revenue source for most clubs); we know what the commercial deals are (the value is usually discussed when announced and confirmed later); we know what the bonus payments are for league placing; we know what the match day revenues are likely to be (given that we have every season’s accounts).

 

In terms of outgoings, we know how much amortisation sits on the books (until last season - and both contract lengths and transfer fees are usually a matter of public record; and while salaries are not, they are often speculated and I’m sure most are broadly in line with the speculation).  We know what the salaries were before last season (see previous point).

 

The unknowns are based upon cup runs (which can boost revenue by a few million - again, it is easy enough to calculate given that we know how much we make on the gate, and the broadcasters are open about payment for televised games) and league placing (which can be worked out easily in terms of how much for finishing in a certain position, but unknown until you do).  And in NUFC’s case, any residual commercial deals (none of which are the ‘big ticket’ ones - kit manufacturer; main sponsor; sleeve sponsor) - there’s money left on the table but it’s hard to imagine it being more than a fraction of what is already in the door.

 

I still feel very confident that the club will spend decent money this summer - but they’ll need to sell, too.  Completely normal for most clubs.  If the club is after Guehi, then I’m happy to trust that everything is in hand - and I can’t imagine Howe or Mitchell being unaware of any financial constraints.  If this is who they want, then I hope we can get him.  I think it would be a hell of a signing. 

[Elliottman]

10 minutes ago, LFEE said:

You can discuss things and still enjoy the ride. I know I do. Find it quite educating the discussions. Think a lot of fans would benefit from it also when they expect us to spend £200m this window. I’ll admit I was under the impression originally we could buy similar to our Trippier/Targett/Burn/Bruno window which would be around £70m in total fees approximately.

 

I think there's discussing it then discussing it to death. Ultimately the only people who know the exact situation are those within the club, every thread being filled with PSR talk just seems a waste of energy to me. Maybe thats just me though. 

[Unbelievable]

10 minutes ago, Dr Venkman said:

Relevant, sure. Exceptionally dull, in every fucking thread.

 

I didn't know only entertaining topics could be discussed in the football section, my apologies.

[The Prophet]

[The College Dropout]

29 minutes ago, et tu brute said:

Again I trust them before someone on the internet who hasn't a clue what the plans are and what is actually happening. I'll wait until the picture is clearer probably at the start of next month

Well not know until next June. 

we literally do have a clue about the clubs finances though.  And football finances in general.  We don’t know everything but we know enough to have semi informed discussions between fans. 

 

But That’s perfectly fine. We can stop discussing. 

 

The question was asked about which targets we prefer.  Some people’s answer is dependent on how much we can spend on a RW as a result and FFP will be the limiting factor on that. So we are talking about FFP.  You can ignore the FFP chat if you like. 
 

I like discussing ideas but we’ve had the same long FFP discussions in numerous threads. The original FFP point about Guehi is relevant to the thread. 

[Magpie]

Just now, The Prophet said:

Welcome Harry Maguire 😫

[SUPERTOON]

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Douglas absolutely loves mentioning us signing a mystery player. It’s the 3rd time he’s said it this summer.

[TheBrownBottle]

7 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

 

I understand that outgoing fees (and wages) would be amortised and incoming fees would not, thereby dampening the effect of incoming vs outgoing. However, we have already heavily used that principle to get to where we are. Consider these figures:

 

 

Our wages have gone up by 30m from 2023 to 2024. Our amortisation (fees for incoming transfers spread over contract duration) has gone up about 25m in the same period. Other expenses have gone up 10m. That is a cost increase of 65m  per year, every year (until player is sold or contract extended). We're turning a massive operational loss of 70m per year with our current squad. That is before any new incoming transfers. A Guehi for 65m and on 140k/week would add 13m amortisation and 7m in wages, or 20m total every year for the next five years. A RW of the same level, another 20m every year for the next five years. Our yearly operational loss would then quickly rise to over 100m. On average we are allowed a 35m loss per year under PSR. 

 

So could you explain to me how we could continue to "spend vastly more than we bring in"? That is what we have done in the last 3 years to get to where we are today. I don't see how that is sustainable without massively increasing commercial revenue or player trading profit.

 

What am I missing?

 

 

That we hadn’t been selling until we were forced to do so.

 

When talking about the £17m profit figure - what that implies is that if we spend £100m, we have to sell £117m.  That’s not the case.  It can be balanced via amortised costs.  So if we sign two players for £50m each on £150k a week and £5m signing on, on five year contracts, then we’d need to sell players with a profit of c.£37m against their amortised values.  So if we sold, say, Almiron for £20m and Murphy for £17m profits on their remaining fees (and I’m aware that there may not be many buyers), then we could spend £100m on two players and meet the profit / loss requirements on transfers (despite a £63m ‘loss’)

 

 

Edited August 5 by TheBrownBottle

[Ikon]

Diomande is my guess 

[McCormick]

I imagine a combined 30m ish from the sales of Almiron and another/others (probably Trippier but I hope not) would allow for another big ticket RW. Either that or we’re resigned to losing Gordon this summer.

[Unbelievable]

Just now, TheBrownBottle said:

That we hadn’t been selling until we were forced to do so.

 

When talking about the £17m profit figure - what that implies is that if we spend £100m, we have to sell £117m.  That’s not the case.  It can be balanced via amortised costs.  So if we sign two players for £50m each on £150k a week and £5m signing on, on five year contracts, then we’d need to sell players with a profit of c.£37m against their amortised values.  So if we sold, say, Almiron for £20m an Murphy for £17m (and I’m aware that there may not be many buyers), then we could spend £100m on two players and meet the profit / loss requirements on transfers (despite a £63m ‘loss’)

Gotcha, thanks for explaining

[TheBrownBottle]

6 minutes ago, Elliottman said:

 

I think there's discussing it then discussing it to death. Ultimately the only people who know the exact situation are those within the club, every thread being filled with PSR talk just seems a waste of energy to me. Maybe thats just me though. 

And tbf the only people who know if we’re signing these players aren’t on these boards either - we have no idea who the club is after and whether or not we’ll be signing them until it’s done.  It’s all speculation.