Coffee_Johnny

The whole last time they finished above us crack hit me; 2015-16 when we were relegated and they finished in the glorious position of 17th. Not sure I would be celebrating that too much (beyond avoiding the drop, temporarily, I guess). Their real focus should be on overtaking Middlesbrough whose average league finishing position, since 1992-93, is 22nd. Sunderland are breathing down their necks with an average of 25th best team in the English leagues (just slightly worse than West Brom). We are at the mediocre, but relatively dizzying, heights of 11th since the Premier League era. Though that does include finishing no lower than 23rd and 14 top ten finishes. Boro have only had two top ten finishes but Sunderland are at least in second place on that metric with 3.

Apologies in advance for early morning number crunching. Just had a look and 16-17 points from next 10 games (until end of year/half way point) was what we’d expect from a 6th place finish. So 18-19 points (from next 30 possible points) and we’re back on track for that. Probably need 21 from 30 to be on track for fourth. Still only 2.1 points per game (ppg) which is doable, but getting into the realms of really unlikely. Last CL season (2023-24) we picked up 1.58 ppg. Last year it was 1.74. Best recent season was 1.87 (2022-23). Think it would be progress if we managed something like last year again. At present we’re on 1.33 ppg (grim given our average is 1.40 for all seasons in Prem) to turn this into 1.74 ppg by the end of the season, oddly, in the next 29 games we need to achieve what we averaged for 2022-23, that is 1.87 ppg. I reckon that is about the best we could realistically hope for: so about 31 points at end of December and about 66 points by end of season. Obvs there are equally, if not more, probable worse scenarios though I’ll be surprised if we dip much below 60 points.

Those last two sentences do not belong together 😂

Was going to ask ho many As are there in the PL? But realised that was your starting point! I wonder whether your bar is just too high (may need to ring Ofsted...) If you changed it to Tiers, so say Tier 1 was the top 20 footballers in the world for a position (striker, CM, Wings, FBs, CB, GK), top 50 for a Tier 2, top 100 for tier 3 etc. How many Tier 1 players are in the PL? I'd guess the majority.

Not that much of a shield really, when you've a 37% win rate, 1.34 points per game, and averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded, over 155 league games. Well, I guess we'll always have the cup form to fondly remember him by ... .

Me too. Tin hat time, but I think on actual form, at present he is probably our 4th choice centre back.

Good spot. With a few exceptions, is it not just a list of who happened to be the centre back pairing in the best PL teams though?

Yep, a loss in the final and a QF defeat on pens (to Chelsea, after a very late equaliser from them if I recall correctly).

Premier League (Premiership) only, for manager's who've had at least a full season's worth of games. Both spells combined for KK. Saw a recent YouTube clip of EH picking a five aside team of ex-NUFC players and neglecting to pick a defender. Presenter made some snide Keegan style defending comment. Worth noting that KK managed 12 more league games for us than EH has thus far, and his NUFC conceded 11 fewer goals. In terms of scoring goals, KK's team averaged 1.69 goals per league game; EH's scored 1.75 per game. Facts don't always fit the media narrative.

Not too shabby Eddie.

Here's a chart which tracks where we should pick up points based on difficulty of opposition and whether home or away. The formula used (which ranks teams into 4 tiers based mainly upon where they finished last year) has been pretty accurate last three seasons. In short, even though we're sitting 11th we're basically not far away from being on track for 6th (2 points below). Which I think most of us would take given extra CL burden. Speaking of which, we're about three points below where we should be for a fifth place finish (not shown on chart).

End of October update re how their season compares to previous PL seasons. No surprise, really. Phenomenal start continues. Three points ahead of their best ever season (7th on 58 points 1999-00). Incredibly unlikely to be relegated at first time of asking. Not sure how ahead of the predicted points total they are (taking into account strength of opposition and whether home or away etc) but suffice to say they're doing much better than most expected. They still need 12 points between now and end of December (10 games) to keep on track for best ever finish.

A clearly nervous Michael Carrick saying pelanty about four times on MotD. The new Chris Waddle 👏

I do. I’m hooked. Even when watching the game on Sky/TNT. It sometimes involves a bit of tinkering with the timing, pausing one or the other until they synch. Gets even more complicated if I forget I am slightly behind and follow the game in here as well. Must be a few of goal celebrations from me, on the match thread, embarrassingly behind the action!

Reckon he has a decent chance of starting. Nick could do with a rest, no doubt. Might end up being quite a ‘new’ line up in attack at least. Which isn’t the best for a striker. Hope they can find a way.

Unless I am missing some background, it reads as though you and @Ronson333 are massively jumping to conclusions that @Nucasol and, apols if not the case, @Fak are making racist comments or at least hold such views. Calling people a flag shagger (presume that means a right wing type), some sort of Farage tarnishing, and inferring their family conversations represent some kind of Alf Garnett-esque hotbed of 1970’s bigotry. Think about it lads, that is much more grim than thinking ACON is a shit tournament and goes way beyond the actual specific ‘evidence’. Which is kind of the way prejudice works, paradoxically. Anyhow, was great to see young Will tearing it up yesterday.

It’s a fair point. I mean think about how much we bemoaned having to sell Anderson? But if we hadn’t would he ever have displaced Tonali or Bruno? Maybe he would have had a chance of edging Joelinton out or keeping him on the bench. Possibly. But Anderson always looked like he could be a phenomenal player, he has clearly grown and shown signs of that potential with Forest and England. Miley also shows such promise. He isn’t going to keep others out of the team at the moment. Not because he won’t get minutes. He has and he will. Not because Howe doesn’t rate him. I think he does. Not even because he is simply up against full internationals in their prime. It worst than that (for him…) he is up against one of the best Italian players and one of the best Brazilian players who both must be close to the top ten midfielders in the world. And they are both in their prime. If he can hold his own in training in such company it must do his confidence the world of good. There maybe comes a point though, where to truly develop you have to become centre stage. Relied upon as one of the main men. If he’s impatient, or as super confident as some young stars from the past have been, then that opportunity might still have to come somewhere else.

I do miss the banter and listening to the leg-ends on Metro back in the day. Last lived in Newcastle 19 years ago.

It’s not necessarily Makem-masochism that makes some like derbies. Or a ‘one North East’ kind of begrudging support. Some just like the feeling of getting their blood-up for a good scrap (historically sometimes quite literally) and playing them is one of the games that does that.

Don't fancy playing them anytime now with our current league performance. Are you two for real?

Was going to type have you forgotten about Gordon? Then checked and he was player of the tournament in the 2023 U21s Euros (not top scorer—a three way tie on 3 goals) and already a Newcastle player (signed in January). My bad.

Just watched a thirty minute programme about him on TNT. Really touching.

Christ! 😂 that is so telling.

Probably right. But personally to really hammer home the grass isn’t always greener argument and deflate any sense of his own specialness and diminishing just what the team (coaches, tactics and team mates) did for him I think the perfect revenge is they win nothing, we do, and ideally finish above the feckers. I’ll keep clinging to that whilst it is possible. Oh! And a victory at Anfield wouldn’t come a miss as well.

Selectively to support my argument. I use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamp post, for support not illumination 😉