Rich Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 This has undoubtedly been the season of the optimist. As such, I come to you with a question that would have been laughable if asked way back in August: Will we qualify for the Champions League? Yes or no? Simple. I've voted "yes" and here's a few reasons why: 1) I'm an eternal optimist. 2) I get easily carried away when things are going well. 3) Seriously though, after yesterday's results we sit joint fourth with Tottenham and two points clear of Chelsea in sixth with five league games remaining for all three teams, here's why I think we'll finish above both: It just so happens Tottenham have an FA Cup Semi-Final against Chelsea this Sunday which I hope they win, because if that happens it means that they'll play the FA Cup Final on Saturday 5th May. On top of the formality of causing their league game with Aston Villa to be rescheduled and adding another fixture onto their run-in it's a cup they have great history in, but haven't won since 1991 with a team containing Gascoigne and Lineker. This alone should be enough of a factor to have some kind of adverse affect on their league form as the FA Cup still looms large on the horizon despite the bigger draw of CL qualification, but looking at their fixtures into the bargain they have three away matches and two home matches - including two London derbies/two away games against relegation-haunted teams. It's not the easiest, regardless. Even if Chelsea prevail at Wembley this weekend, Spurs have a run-in of similar difficulty to our own and their form is almost on the complete opposite end of the spectrum to ours as well. It's not the end of the world if they don't have an FA Cup Final date to muddy their chances even further, but it would be a boon for NUFC if this became the case. In short, and in my John Humble, if you have any kind of ambition for NUFC you want Spurs to win this Sunday - preferably after extra time and penalties. Well, what about Chelsea, then? Regardless of their result this coming weekend they have the small matter of a two-legged Champions League Semi-Final with Barcelona to contend with, along with a trip to the Emirates wedged in between. In total they have at least 8 games to play in just 29 days, an average of a game every 3.625 days. If they beat Spurs that becomes 9 in 29 (a game every 3.222 days) and if they do the unthinkable and turn Barcelona over then it's a game every 2.9 days. Insane whichever way it falls, really, especially for this late stage of the season. Without wanting to read too much further into things and make this already-large opening post an absolute monster, something has to give for them and with two horrendous away trips left in the league and another West London derby to come with QPR, I just don't fancy them to get enough points to finish above either ourselves or Spurs. Even if they go out to Barcelona they'll only have four games left to recover things in the league and I firmly believe by that stage they'll be five points behind us and a hell of a lot more fatigued than any of their impending opponents, which will see them dropping points. As for ourselves, we're the form team in the division outside of Manchester United and we've got the form striker in the division. We've undoubtedly got what looks to be a tricky run-in on paper, but consider the fact that we could be playing the final three fixtures "at a good time" against all of the respective teams there. One of them could be simply cream-crackered after too many games in too short a space of time, one of them could have nothing to play for after bottling the league and one of them could be off the back of an FA Cup Final and an extra midweek game. In terms of the latter, win or lose that takes a hell of a lot out of you both mentally and physically. In short (comparatively, at least): I want Everton to beat Liverpool this Saturday so that they come up against NUFC the week after an FA Cup Final and so they have an extra fixture thrown in there immediately preceding our game down at Goodison (their trip to Wolves will undoubtedly get pushed to midweek) and I want Tottenham to beat Chelsea this Sunday so they have an FA Cup Final to distract them a bit from their league form. Ideally, I think Everton winning said final would be best for us too, as they'd nail Europa League qualification without it hinging on their league finish. Ideally I want Chelsea beating Barcelona and then losing in the Champions League Final to completely nullify them in the league, but I still maintain that even if they lose over the two legs and go out in the FA Cup to Spurs they'll be left with too much to do to take qualification from us. Us finishing fourth and then still not being gauranteed a CL qualifying spot come the end of the league season might be too much for some of us to take too, although it would make the CL Final interesting viewing to say the least. I appreciate that just because I want these outcomes to occur doesn't make them so - I've lost enough money betting to know that much. However, I do firmly believe that these results would be in the best interests of NUFC. As we stand we have to make the CL our goal. Forget taking the safe option and wanting guaranteed Europa League qualification, let's just fucking go for the big one. Of course even if things go our way this weekend in particular there's no guarantee that we'll keep our own end of the bargain and get the requisite points to actually finish top four, but similarly if they don't it still doesn't make it impossible: we are the form team in the battle and we've been proving the doubters wrong all season. Finally, I realise this doesn't take a lot of things into account such as Arsenal (surely too far gone and with too much of a "nice" run-in?), injuries, jinxes, refereeing decisions, etc. However, all of that is practically impossible to cover without going mad. I've done my best. Call me crazy, but I genuinely believe we'll finish fourth and I hope I've made a decent enough case to stir something up in one or two of you as well. Rolling Results Tuesday 10th April @ 6pm - Sunday 15th April @ 9pm: Yes = 89 (24.7%) No = 271 (75.3%) from 360 votes Sunday 15th April @ 9pm - Saturday 21st April @ 5pm: Yes = 62 (37.6%) No = 103 (62.4%) from 165 votes. An increase in belief of 9.9% Saturday 21st April @ 5pm - Saturday 28th April @ 3pm: Yes = 94 (41.8%) No = 131 (58.2%) from 224 votes. An increase in belief of 4.2% Monday 30th April @ 10pm - Wednesday 2nd May @ 9pm: Yes = 5 (15.2%) No = 28 (84.8%) from 33 votes. A decrease in belief of 26.6% Thursday 3rd May @ 1am - Saturday 5th May @ 1pm: Yes = 33 (25.6%) No = 96 (74.4%) from 129 votes. An increase in belief of 10.4% Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anderson Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Nah, not played anyone yet, we'll fall away eventually. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbandit Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Voted yes, just feeling good. Don't even know if I really think it, but just the thought of it happening... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Nguyen Van Falk Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 No, I'm thinking 6th still. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ponsaelius Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 5th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest palnese Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I'll donate a bollock to science if we finish 4th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest neesy111 Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 5th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Spaceman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 No, I don't want to jinx it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
midstoon Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Nope!! i reckon 5th Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdckelly Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Honestly don't think so, Chelsea have enough poxy luck/bribing of officials to compensate for the fact they are past it and while Spurs are in the middle of a total collapse they're remaining games are hardly what anyone would call challenging and games I'd fully expect us to win most if not all of them while our last 3 games are not pretty Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I'm usually quite guarded and realistic in terms of where we will finish, but got a stupid feeling that stars are aligning and that something special may happen. However if it doesn't it's still been a magnificent season where we have had to pinch ourselves on so many occasions: - Ba storming the first half of the season then tagging Cisse in. Cisse being a mother f***ing goal machine. That Ben Arfa goal. That Ben Arfa goal. Ben Arfa. Perchino. Captain Colo. Krul. Pards rocking the silver fox look with the glasses. Pards & Tiote's father & son relationship. Ashley spending 9/10 mill on a player. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginola Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Despite Tottenham's poor form and additional cup fixtures I still think they'll get fourth, so no. I don't think we'll pick up more points than them in the remaining fixtures, but I do think we'll finish above Chelsea. I hope I'm wrong about us finishing below Spurs though... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dell Boi Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I think we can, 6 points from our next two games will put us 4th imo, fancy Spurs/Chelsea to both slip up against QPR and Arsenal. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I'll donate a bollock to science if we finish 4th. What will science do with your bollock? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenham Mag Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Aye, go on then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theregulars Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I actually think we'll do it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGuv Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I really hope we do, but i think we'll just lose out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BooBoo Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I think we'll just miss out. The final 3 games of the season are tough and Stamford Bridge and Goodison are not places that yield away wins too often. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theregulars Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Honestly don't think so, Chelsea have enough poxy luck/bribing of officials to compensate for the fact they are past it and while Spurs are in the middle of a total collapse they're remaining games are hardly what anyone would call challenging and games I'd fully expect us to win most if not all of them while our last 3 games are not pretty Wouldn't have called Norwich home a challenging game for them either. Our last 3: City are eminently beatable, especially not at the Etihad. By that point their season is totally and utterly over, a deflated club with fuck all left to play for who haven't functioned right for about 2 months. Chelsea: absolutely not scared of them, they looked shit yesterday, were poor and lucky against Wigan. We can easily beat them. Everton: don't think we'll win that one, they're on fire. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nobody Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I've started dreaming about it, that's for sure. Been thinking about making a thread like this myself, but I haven't dared Voted no, but a win next weekend together with another set of results going our way and I'll start thinking it's actually possible. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest BlacknWhiteArmy Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 No, I don't think so. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gdm Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Nah 5th just behind spurs but above Chelsea. Real tough last 3 games Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiresias Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Not going to get hopes up so voted no my heart says yes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
midds Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Don't think we will. Got a horrible feeling we'll finish 6th and miss out to Everton. This doesn't mean we've failed or there should be any disappointment though. 7th would have been a superb season, 6th is unbelievable. Any higher than that is beyond what anyone would have predicted. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole_Toonfan Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 5th. Yh i reckon so too, i know Spurs are eternal masters of a good ol bottle job but surely they cant f*ck this one up? surely? I would be more confident if our last 3 games was'nt so hard where i dont see getting more than 4 points from last 9. Chelsea i reckon will get burnt out due to fixture demand and we will beat them to 5th but i reckon Spurs will hold on. Still an amazing season regardless. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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