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Villa are as good as down and anything above 15th looks out of reach unless someone has a melt down in the final 12 games. It's between Bournemouth, Swansea, Norwich, the mackems and us for two places. The mackems will escape as is their modus operandi, that leaves four of us. I think Swansea has too much about them to go down (that said, so do/should we). I'm currently at a 6, but we'd better hope that both Bournemouth and Norwich don't hit a rich vein of form or that could quickly go up a notch or two.

 

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  On 14/02/2016 at 20:29, Dave said:

http://i.imgur.com/UOGcE3U.png

 

I know that's points per game but we've played a couple fewer than most and 4 of the 6 games we've got left against those sides are at home, where we've been very good the last 3 games.

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  On 24/01/2016 at 10:26, Altamullan said:

What are everyone's predictions?

AWAY: 8 points

Everton L

Chelsea L

Stoke D

Leicester L

Norwich W

Southampton D

Liverpool L

Villa W

 

HOME: 13 points

West  Brom W

Man City D

Bournemouth W

Makems W

Swansea W

Palace L

Spurs L

 

21 points

 

Still think this, TBH. Though getting more twitchy about the Macnamaras... but more confident about Palarse.

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  On 14/02/2016 at 23:49, Geordie Ahmed said:

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

Whatever way you look at it I think a 7 is the lowest anyone should be at right now, a 30% chance of staying up is about right, probably a bit generous tbh

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I've gone from a 5 to a 6 like. Up until 2 weeks ago I had it as a straight battle between us & Norwich, but Sunderland have made it even more dodgy. Would have been a 7 but for Swansea & Bournemouth not widening the gap.

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I've been at 7 for quite a while.  We're running out of games, though.  We'll be lucky to get another 3-4 points away from home and sunderland are suddenly close to going above us.

 

It's all on the home form.  Need another 12 points from our remaining home games, otherwise, I think we're fucked. 

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  On 15/02/2016 at 00:18, Ian W said:

I'd still say it's about 50/50 in the cold light of day, weirdly our form isn't any worse than anyone else around us over the last 5 games. I was about a 9 after the match mind.

We are incapable of winning away, well nevermind winning we're incapable of not getting totally shat on so we have to win most of our remaining home games. At least 4/6 I think isn't it when we've won 3 so far this season.

 

I'd argue that's well weighted against us at this stage. New manager and things change because we might actually stand a chance away from home.

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I have us surviving by the skin of our teeth and that's with drawing against the Mackems and losing at Norwich (have us to beat Bournemouth, Swansea and Palace). However, it will only take a couple of unexpected results and they will happen somewhere, that will either see us safe or relegate us. Villa and Norwich both look gone and that's 2 away games we really need to target, I can't see us getting more than a point out of 6 the way we presently approach away games.

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Sun 28 12:00 H Manchester City PREM - Loss no matter when its played.

March

Wed 02 19:45 A Stoke City PREM - Away game. Draw at best, probably lose again. 1p.

Sat 05 15:00 H Bournemouth PREM -Home, should win. 3p.

Mon 14 20:00 A Leicester City PREM - Away, so another loss.

Sun 20 13:30 H Sunderland PREM - Must win game, seeing as it's sunderland we do the usual and lose.

April

Sat 02 15:00 A Norwich City PREM -Away, lose.

Sat 09 15:00 A Southampton PREM - Away, lose,

Sat 16 15:00 H Swansea City PREM -Home, another must win. 3p.

Sat 23 15:00 A Liverpool PREM         -away, lose.

Sat 30 15:00 H Crystal Palace PREM -Win. Have to beat this shit. 3p.

May

Sat 07 15:00 A Aston Villa PREM - Away. Might sneak a point?

Sun 15 15:00 H Tottenham PREM                      -Need to win, but if spurs are in for a first place we have no chance. Lose.

 

Makes a total of 2 draws and 3 wins? 11 points. Fucking hell, we need some luck to survive with that.

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Some of the optimism on this topic is laughable.  Despite our absolutely atrocious form, some people actually believe we will win all our remaining home games and somehow avoid relegation.  Wake up and smell the coffee people.  We have won 6 games in 26, so what makes anyone think we can win 5 in 12.  We will be lucky to win 2 more home games imo.  This club is a walking corpse as far as the EPL is concerned.  Someone needs to put it in a very deep hole and read the last rites over it.

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It sucks to lose, but looking at the results (and not the performance) and fixtures in February. Are anyone surprised or of the opinion that we should have expected something better? 3 points in february looks about right to me, and doesn't really sway my expectations for the worse.

 

fwiw, I do think we are in real danger of going down and we need a reaction from staff and players after the City game, especially at the "winnable" away games. If they can improve the away form against the lower half teams (getting more than 2 points from the remaining away games), I do not think we will be relegated. This wasn't meant to be some "we're going to be fine" post. Just find that there are a lot of OTT people on here after a bad game against Chelsea whom regardless of league position, are lightyears ahead of us in terms of quality both on and off the pitch. Look at their form since Hiddink came in.

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It's the manner of the last three defeats, more than the actual results.  It almost looks like we won't get another point away, we play that badly.  Everton could have beat us 5 or 6 nil and it wouldn't have flattered them.  Chelsea did stick 5 past us and again, it could have been more.  Watford, we created sod all, which has been a recurring theme away from home this season.  Yet we conceded sloppy goals.  When teams attack us, it looks like they're going to score every time they get near our box.  We're all over the place. 

 

When you factor in the bad form of Watford and Everton, before we played them.  It really does make you realise how shit we are.  Watford were on a 5 game losing streak, we went there and shat the bed.  Everton hadn't won at home since November and I think their last league win, was against us back on Boxing Day.  We went there and pissed all over ourselves. 

 

The home form is kind of encouraging and gives some hope.  But I think teams always know they will get chances against our shit defence.  If they press our midfield and don't give Tiote and Shelvey time, then they will shut us down.  West Ham and WBA stood of us and paid the price.  Coincidentally, Shelvey was probably MOTM in both of those games.  He's done fuck all else in the 3 away games he's played.  Not that I'm singling him out, as they've all been shit.  But it is quite worrying to note.  As I feel teams will have the blueprint to comfortably beat us.  Quite a few have done this to us already, TBF  :undecided:

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At present we're down, but a month ago I would have said Sunderlad haven't got a chance and arguably they're favourite out of us and Norwich to stay up. It seems to change on a weekly basis.

 

While the others continue to be shit we've still got a chance.

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My needle just touched 9 on the relegation scale.  If McClaren is not moved on during this mini break then we are just about finished. We still have our own home form which can save us but this leaves us no room for manoeuvre, any defeat or draw at home could be crippling as the away form has been totally written off.

 

 

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I can't for the life of me understand this confidence when talking about the home games. In particular, people putting the Bournemouth game down as a sure thing.

 

There must be some short memories on here because they played us off the park down at their place and haven't exactly struggled since.

 

I think they are a far better football team than us.

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