Relegationometer

[Geordie Ahmed]

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

[mrmojorisin75]

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

Whatever way you look at it I think a 7 is the lowest anyone should be at right now, a 30% chance of staying up is about right, probably a bit generous tbh

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I'd still say it's about 50/50 in the cold light of day, weirdly our form isn't any worse than anyone else around us over the last 5 games. I was about a 9 after the match mind.

[Guest]

I've gone from a 5 to a 6 like. Up until 2 weeks ago I had it as a straight battle between us & Norwich, but Sunderland have made it even more dodgy. Would have been a 7 but for Swansea & Bournemouth not widening the gap.

[Lush Vlad]

I've been at 7 for quite a while.  We're running out of games, though.  We'll be lucky to get another 3-4 points away from home and sunderland are suddenly close to going above us.

 

It's all on the home form.  Need another 12 points from our remaining home games, otherwise, I think we're fucked. 

[mrmojorisin75]

I'd still say it's about 50/50 in the cold light of day, weirdly our form isn't any worse than anyone else around us over the last 5 games. I was about a 9 after the match mind.

We are incapable of winning away, well nevermind winning we're incapable of not getting totally shat on so we have to win most of our remaining home games. At least 4/6 I think isn't it when we've won 3 so far this season.

 

I'd argue that's well weighted against us at this stage. New manager and things change because we might actually stand a chance away from home.

[Tsunami]

I have us surviving by the skin of our teeth and that's with drawing against the Mackems and losing at Norwich (have us to beat Bournemouth, Swansea and Palace). However, it will only take a couple of unexpected results and they will happen somewhere, that will either see us safe or relegate us. Villa and Norwich both look gone and that's 2 away games we really need to target, I can't see us getting more than a point out of 6 the way we presently approach away games.

[matta]

Sun 28 12:00 H Manchester City PREM - Loss no matter when its played.

March

Wed 02 19:45 A Stoke City PREM - Away game. Draw at best, probably lose again. 1p.

Sat 05 15:00 H Bournemouth PREM -Home, should win. 3p.

Mon 14 20:00 A Leicester City PREM - Away, so another loss.

Sun 20 13:30 H Sunderland PREM - Must win game, seeing as it's sunderland we do the usual and lose.

April

Sat 02 15:00 A Norwich City PREM -Away, lose.

Sat 09 15:00 A Southampton PREM - Away, lose,

Sat 16 15:00 H Swansea City PREM -Home, another must win. 3p.

Sat 23 15:00 A Liverpool PREM         -away, lose.

Sat 30 15:00 H Crystal Palace PREM -Win. Have to beat this shit. 3p.

May

Sat 07 15:00 A Aston Villa PREM - Away. Might sneak a point?

Sun 15 15:00 H Tottenham PREM                      -Need to win, but if spurs are in for a first place we have no chance. Lose.

 

Makes a total of 2 draws and 3 wins? 11 points. Fucking hell, we need some luck to survive with that.

[Lush Vlad]

Still odds against on us going down.  I mean, it's practically even money, but we're 4th favourite to get relegated.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Looking at that its possible that we'll have City and Spurs when they have nothing to play for. Any other team and that would be 6 points but for us.... in the good old Eurovision tradition.....nil points

[Wallsendmag]

Us, Norwich and Villa going down imo. These players and the clown leading them haven't got the gumption for a relegation scrap.

[Ankles Bennett]

Some of the optimism on this topic is laughable.  Despite our absolutely atrocious form, some people actually believe we will win all our remaining home games and somehow avoid relegation.  Wake up and smell the coffee people.  We have won 6 games in 26, so what makes anyone think we can win 5 in 12.  We will be lucky to win 2 more home games imo.  This club is a walking corpse as far as the EPL is concerned.  Someone needs to put it in a very deep hole and read the last rites over it.

[Conjo]

It sucks to lose, but looking at the results (and not the performance) and fixtures in February. Are anyone surprised or of the opinion that we should have expected something better? 3 points in february looks about right to me, and doesn't really sway my expectations for the worse.

 

fwiw, I do think we are in real danger of going down and we need a reaction from staff and players after the City game, especially at the "winnable" away games. If they can improve the away form against the lower half teams (getting more than 2 points from the remaining away games), I do not think we will be relegated. This wasn't meant to be some "we're going to be fine" post. Just find that there are a lot of OTT people on here after a bad game against Chelsea whom regardless of league position, are lightyears ahead of us in terms of quality both on and off the pitch. Look at their form since Hiddink came in.

[Lush Vlad]

It's the manner of the last three defeats, more than the actual results.  It almost looks like we won't get another point away, we play that badly.  Everton could have beat us 5 or 6 nil and it wouldn't have flattered them.  Chelsea did stick 5 past us and again, it could have been more.  Watford, we created sod all, which has been a recurring theme away from home this season.  Yet we conceded sloppy goals.  When teams attack us, it looks like they're going to score every time they get near our box.  We're all over the place. 

 

When you factor in the bad form of Watford and Everton, before we played them.  It really does make you realise how shit we are.  Watford were on a 5 game losing streak, we went there and shat the bed.  Everton hadn't won at home since November and I think their last league win, was against us back on Boxing Day.  We went there and pissed all over ourselves. 

 

The home form is kind of encouraging and gives some hope.  But I think teams always know they will get chances against our shit defence.  If they press our midfield and don't give Tiote and Shelvey time, then they will shut us down.  West Ham and WBA stood of us and paid the price.  Coincidentally, Shelvey was probably MOTM in both of those games.  He's done fuck all else in the 3 away games he's played.  Not that I'm singling him out, as they've all been shit.  But it is quite worrying to note.  As I feel teams will have the blueprint to comfortably beat us.  Quite a few have done this to us already, TBF 

[St1pe]

At present we're down, but a month ago I would have said Sunderlad haven't got a chance and arguably they're favourite out of us and Norwich to stay up. It seems to change on a weekly basis.

 

While the others continue to be shit we've still got a chance.

[NG32]

My needle just touched 9 on the relegation scale.  If McClaren is not moved on during this mini break then we are just about finished. We still have our own home form which can save us but this leaves us no room for manoeuvre, any defeat or draw at home could be crippling as the away form has been totally written off.

 

 

[Minhosa]

I can't for the life of me understand this confidence when talking about the home games. In particular, people putting the Bournemouth game down as a sure thing.

 

There must be some short memories on here because they played us off the park down at their place and haven't exactly struggled since.

 

I think they are a far better football team than us.

[Mattoon]

With how bipolar our performances are it's hardly surprising people's perceptions of our chances of going down are equally bipolar. Right now I'm at a firm 6 borderline 7, unless we can do what we've struggled to do for a couple of years now and turn the Mackems over at home and put some "easy on paper" matches away I think we'll go down with barely a whimper. As it stands I think there is enough time and quality to put us straight, but with McClaren at the helm? I'm not too sure.

[cp40]

I dont think the definition of bi-polar is shit/slightly less shit  tho.

[Pata]

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

[Interpolic]

pata like wata and I'm drowning in it.

[Marmoset]

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

Aye there were people saying ten months ago, I know they don't literally mean 100% but it irks me for some reason

[Kaizero]

I've had 10 all season FWIW.

[Dinho lad]

I can't for the life of me understand this confidence when talking about the home games. In particular, people putting the Bournemouth game down as a sure thing.

 

There must be some short memories on here because they played us off the park down at their place and haven't exactly struggled since.

 

I think they are a far better football team than us.

 

Exactly.

[NG32]

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

Fuck sake.  For the last fucking time. My relegation detector works like a fucking earthquake measuring device.  It fluctuates with the shit that goes on at the club. Right now the needle is on a fucking 9. The relegation fault line is gaping...Also the relegatonometer is not a real thing. cP40 made it up.  Do you think owners, chairmen and magaers have an app on there phone, cos if they Ashley's would be on a fucking 9.