Relegationometer

[NG32]

3 wins and a draw I reckon.

[Dinho lad]

I thought Palace are not going down? They're certainly not staying up as easily as some people thought.

 

Weeey, I knew this would happen. The point was that they weren't 'definitely gone' as a few people insisted, not that they weren't going down.

 

Pretty sure you made post declaring them safe.

[xLiaaamx]

Benteke's scored 2 all season. Horrific.

[Dinho lad]

I thought Palace are not going down? They're certainly not staying up as easily as some people thought.

 

They definitely shouldn't, the squad is decent.

 

And everyone knows, especially in a league like this where pretty much everyone can beat pretty much everyone, uncertain events can occur.

 

The team that went down in 2009 was 'too good to go down'.

[Karjala]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

[Stifler]

3 wins and a draw I reckon.

3 wins would mean that the teams in the bottom 3 now would need 11 points (12 if you take into consideration our superior goal difference). I can't see them getting that many, they would need to win nearly 50% of their remaining games. 3 wins and 38 points will be enough I think.

[Guest firetotheworks]

I thought Palace are not going down? They're certainly not staying up as easily as some people thought.

 

Weeey, I knew this would happen. The point was that they weren't 'definitely gone' as a few people insisted, not that they weren't going down.

 

Pretty sure you made post declaring them safe.

 

...and another saying they were in trouble when all of their players got injured, because I'm not a psychic and these things happen. They're in trouble, no doubt about that, but I think they'd be out of it if they still had Zaha, Sako, Loftus-Cheek, Puncheon, and Dann available. Zaha's back for their run in at the end, which still might be enough to save them.

[Dinho lad]

Well, apart from Zaha, I don't think they're that good. Loftus-Cheek is still relatively unproven at this level too.

 

 

[Figures 1-0 Football]

Bookies have us at 9/2, with 6 teams more likely to go down than us. Which I’d probably agree with.

 

4 or more points from our next 2 games and we’ll be safe.

 

I cant make any sort of case for WBA surviving, so there are 2 spots available. Stoke look most likely to drop with the 3rd space going to one of Palace, Huddersfield or Southampton.

[Guest firetotheworks]

I don't think they're that good either, but no one needs to be good to stay up, just be less shit or have enough quality players to force it. Everton are absolutely rotten and they only need a few points to be safely mid table.

 

[Ketsbaia]

Hmm I'd still be shocked if Palace or Swansea went down, mind.

 

If we win 2 of the Southampton, Huddersfield, Arsenal and West Brom home games, I think we'll get an away win at either Leicester, Everton or Watford - they'll be on their holidays. 3 wins = safety.

[TRon]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

[mrmojorisin75]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

 

it's written for slimani to come in and start scoring enough to make things comfortable

 

that or we'll never see the cunt and get relegated with a whimper

[TRon]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

 

it's written for slimani to come in and start scoring enough to make things comfortable

 

that or we'll never see the cunt and get relegated with a whimper

 

I'm sick of people whinging about Slimani tbh, the way things are going, he might still nick us a couple of wins which keep us up. Was listening to some dipshit over the weekend complaining he was a waste of money, and we should have had a go at Liverpool.

[mrmojorisin75]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

 

it's written for slimani to come in and start scoring enough to make things comfortable

 

that or we'll never see the cunt and get relegated with a whimper

 

I'm sick of people whinging about Slimani tbh, the way things are going, he might still nick us a couple of wins which keep us up. Was listening to some dipshit over the weekend complaining he was a waste of money, and we should have had a go at Liverpool.

 

i'm not whinging about slimani mind, i think he'll get fit and play a few games myself

[Altamullan]

The predicted total points looks like being more than enough; if we stay behind the predictions, by the same margin (achieve 84%), then we’re looking at a 43 point haul, rather than 51 points.  (8 April, update).

 

Did this re relative difficulty thing for the season. Surprisingly, we're on track.

Thought I would 'classify' and colour code our fixtures according to finishing position last year of opposition  treating the top seven (15 point gap between Everton 7th and Southampton 8th) as RED (least likely to beat), next six as AMBER, and remaining four, plus promoted sides as GREEN. To make this pseudo-scientific cluster-f*** even more elaborate, opposition moves up or down a category depending if home or away if we are playing a RED team at SJP it becomes an AMBER fixture; and a GREEN team away becomes an AMBER fixture (I know this ignores our relatively better away form, last year).

 

Point is (other than I am bored and NUFC obsessed...) this should give, based on last year's form/squads, a sense of the relative difficulty of different periods of the season. So:

August:

Spurs H PRED 1 Lost ACT 0

Huddersfield A PRED 2 Lost ACT 0

West Ham H PRED 5 Won ACT 3

September:

Swansea A PRED 6 Won ACT 6

Stoke H PRED 9 Won ACT 9

Brighton A PRED 10  Lost ACT 9

Liverpool H PRED 11 Drew ACT 10

October:

Southampton A PRED 11 Drew ACT 11

Palace H  PRED 14 Won ACT 14

Burnley A PRED 15 Lost ACT 14

November:

Bournemouth H PRED 18 Lost ACT 14

Man Utd A PRED 18 Lost ACT 14 

Watford H PRED 21 Lost ACT 14

WBA A PRED 22 Drew ACT 15 

December:

Chelsea A PRED 22 Lost ACT 15

Leicester H PRED 25 Lost ACT 15

Everton H PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

Arsenal A PRED 26 Lost ACT 15

West Ham A PRED 26 Won ACT 18

Man City H PRED 27 Lost ACT 18

Brighton H  PRED 30 Drew ACT 19

January:

Stoke A PRED 30 Won ACT 22

Swansea H PRED 33 Drew ACT 23

Man City A PRED 33 Lost ACT 23

Burnley H PRED 36 Drew ACT 24

February:

Palace A PRED 37 Drew ACT 25

Man Utd H PRED 38 Won ACT 28

Bournemouth A PRED 39 Drew ACT 29

March:

Liverpool A PRED 39 Lost ACT 29

Southampton H PRED 42 Won ACT 32

Spurs A PRED 42 tbc

Huddersfield H PRED 45 Won ACT 35

April:

Leicester A PRED 45 Won ACT 38

Arsenal H PRED 46

Everton A PRED 46

WBA H PRED 49

May:

Watford A PRED 50

Chelsea H PRED 51

[Altamullan]

Just re-reading predictions post above, November and December killed our season. Predicted 15 points Aug-Oct, got 14. Predicted 9 points Jan-now, got 10. Predicted 15 points Nov-Dec, got 5!

[TRon]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

 

it's written for slimani to come in and start scoring enough to make things comfortable

 

that or we'll never see the cunt and get relegated with a whimper

 

I'm sick of people whinging about Slimani tbh, the way things are going, he might still nick us a couple of wins which keep us up. Was listening to some dipshit over the weekend complaining he was a waste of money, and we should have had a go at Liverpool.

 

i'm not whinging about slimani mind, i think he'll get fit and play a few games myself

 

Oh yeah that was clear in your post. I was talking about just a few in general who talk about the money wasted as if we'd have been better off not having another striker on the books. We are gagging for a quality striker to give us some real bite up front.

[mrmojorisin75]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

 

it's written for slimani to come in and start scoring enough to make things comfortable

 

that or we'll never see the cunt and get relegated with a whimper

 

I'm sick of people whinging about Slimani tbh, the way things are going, he might still nick us a couple of wins which keep us up. Was listening to some dipshit over the weekend complaining he was a waste of money, and we should have had a go at Liverpool.

 

i'm not whinging about slimani mind, i think he'll get fit and play a few games myself

 

Oh yeah that was clear in your post. I was talking about just a few in general who talk about the money wasted as if we'd have been better off not having another striker on the books. We are gagging for a quality striker to give us some real bite up front.

Ah aye, why the fuck do they care about 'wasted' money ffs

[54]

3 wins and we'd be safe IMO, could do with getting them sooner rather than later, starting with this weekend.

 

Our home form is relegation material as it stands.

 

We really do struggle to win games though, three wins is a big ask considering our form this season. Maybe two will be enough if we pick up a few draws which we seem more capable of.

Our form isn't actually that bad ATM, it probably feels worse as we've dropped points from winning positions. In our last 11 games we've lost 3 (To Liverpool and Man City), won 3 and drawn the rest. If we carry that on we should be alright, and generally Rafa teams finish the season strongly as well.

[afar]

Got to hand it to Brighton, they've gotten some huge wins lately and probably pulled themselves clear of the fight. It looks like it's from Swansea in 13th on 30 points down to Stoke on 27 in 19th spot, for the last two places with Brom almost certainly down. If we go down, it'll not be because we've been battered every week but it's the huge amount of games where we've failed to win when we really should have, those dropped points, against Bournemouth (twice), Brighton (twice), Everton (h), Burnely (h), Swansea (h), Leicester (h), Palace (a) and Southampton (a). For large portions of those games we've been well on top but failed to get a goal or a a second or third to ensure the points.

 

I'm still at a 6 right now, really though should be a 2 or 3, I honestly don't think we are one of the worst 3 teams in this division but could easily drop.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Nobody I've seen recently looks like a relegation side TBH, that's what's making me a bit worried.

 

I haven't seen much of West Ham, and obviously WBA look doomed, but apart from that I would back almost anyone to stay up

[TRon]

Nobody I've seen recently looks like a relegation side TBH, that's what's making me a bit worried.

 

I haven't seen much of West Ham, and obviously WBA look doomed, but apart from that I would back almost anyone to stay up

 

The problem is, it's the teams you would have expected to struggle more who are inching towards safety. I would prefer Brighton, Huddersfield or Swansea to be down there to West Ham, Stoke or So'ton, as those teams have players who can win games. Swansea are still deep in it, but their form is worryingly good, and those bloody Ayew brothers are a pain in the arse.

[Guest Howaythetoon]

Everton look Pardew bad under Big Sam, West Brom cannot score and don’t seem to do anything really and Southampton although they play decent stuff at times they are very powder puff up front. Swansea have picked up and play some good football and Palace have a really balanced team that can score goals. Neither look like a team going down. Unfortunately for Palace they have very tough fixtures and two last minute defeats must be demoralising. Stoke aren’t playing good attacking football but they have been better defensively and Shakiri has come into form. Brighton are the best in terms of defending and attacking, they play some good stuff and are the most capable of any down there. We are hit and miss, but the players are fighting hard and there seems to be a good spirit among the group. That won’t save us though, we need to start scoring goals and keeping them out when we do. Huddersfield I’ve not seen much of so can’t comment. West Ham look like us under McClaren when we went down and I’d love to see them relegated.

[Altamullan]

On form and style of play, I still think WBA, Stoke and Southampton are favourites. I’ll change my mind about the latter if they beat us.