AyeDubbleYoo Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What we really needed was it all quoted again. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What we really needed was it all quoted again. Here you go mate: We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money. I'm at a 7. So apparently, I think there is a 70% chance we'll go down. According to you, I should go and put thousands of pounds on us getting relegated at around 5/4. How is the terrible tipping line business? You winning much? I'll keep my money in the bank, cheers. Ooh, look at Richie Rich here. To be honest I don't know how much money you have in the bank but it's poor form to openly brag about it. 5/4 needs about 45% probability, that's terrible value for you with your 70% expectancy? Guaranteed to be the bet of your life, no matter the outcome. For the other questions, I don't have a tipping line business or bet much outside some major events. You win some and you lose some. I hope you don't bet much. (Hope I'm not getting whooshed, your post was so tragic that I wouldn't know what to bet on at 5/4.) You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier. Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's fucking common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds! Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV. You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier. Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds! Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV. I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put. But this printing money thing, is absurd? How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved? It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process. That's printing money. As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet. I beg to differ. IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything. I would rather stake small, on better odds. I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens. I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas. 20/1, beating a 16/1. Returned about £250 odd. I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs. I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well. In my head, I fancied that to win. So it's a good bet." If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used. Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit. Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav. But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have. I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet. But maybe that's just me? Anyway. Back on topic. I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. jeesus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 :lol: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Touché sir. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm at a 2 (60% chance of going down). Might go up to a 4 (45.7%) if we win a couple. If we lose any of our upcoming home games though it'll go straight up to pineapple. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp40 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm at a 2 (60% chance of going down). Might go up to a 4 (45.7%) if we win a couple. If we lose any of our upcoming home games though it'll go straight up to pineapple. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Bailey Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 If we lose any of our upcoming home games though it'll go straight up to pineapple. Pineapple?? chunk? surely that's something else...Ring??.....Fritter?? up the shitter?? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I can count to Potato. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I can count to Potato. Salty rotting fish. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaizero Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I can count to Potato. Salty rotting fish. Don't bring delicious food into this. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueStar Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Newcastle United will not be relegated - I am 100 per cent confident of that Rob Lee http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/newcastle-united-not-relegated-am-10946957 Phew, panic over lads. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Not sure if Rob Lee as he didn't mention English players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
loki679 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 So Rob Lee's on a 4 then. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueStar Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Reason given that there are three teams in the league worse than us, which he seems to struggle to name. "Villa, um... Norwich aren't great. Maybe Sunderland? They'll be there or thereabouts. Bournmouth play pretty well. Could get dragged into it I guess but they'll probably be OK. So yeah, 100% staying up." Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I can't name three teams showing the same combination of lack of form, lack of a plan and lack of players in key positions. We still might survive but I can't see how anyone can write people off without writing us off too. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm stroking a 10. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Phillipealbert Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm stroking a 10. Yes, but what do you think about relegation? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 what is the significance of stroking in regards to the 10. My needle is tickling 10 on the relegationometer Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shush Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I just can't see us staying up. That stat of us picking up 37 points in the last 45 games shows how woeful we are. To suddenly snap out of it and get 4 wins out of the next 12 games just seems absurd. There isn't three teams worse than us either. We will get humped by Stoke as our terrible away form continues and the panic from that will see us drop points at home to Bournemouth. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chopey Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Win the next two and we'll be ok, lose the next two and we're knackered Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figures 1-0 Football Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm probably on a 6 at the moment, the Bournemouth home game is crucial as I think they will be one of the teams right in the mix at the end of the season. Personally can see Villa, Norwich dropping with us, Bournemouth and Sunderland scrapping over the final place. No idea which way the final place will go... the Bournemouth and Sunderland home games are massive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sempuki Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm probably on a 6 at the moment, the Bournemouth home game is crucial as I think they will be one of the teams right in the mix at the end of the season. Personally can see Villa, Norwich dropping with us, Bournemouth and Sunderland scrapping over the final place. No idea which way the final place will go... the Bournemouth and Sunderland home games are massive. Villa are obviously gone and I think Norwich are unlikely to stay up. Four contenders for the last place - mackems, us, Swansea and Bournemouth. Think it might be between us and Swansea. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Results have gone superbly this weekend but the others played quite well. Spirited, well-drilled with an actual gameplan. Far away from what we often are. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
samptime29 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Great results for us this weekend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Pinkman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Win against Stoke and we drag Bournemouth and Crystal Palace right into it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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