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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
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George Bailey

George Bailey

Posted
Posted

I have Arsenal winning the title on GD after Leicester stumbles on the final day at Stamford Bridge. mackems, Norwich, and Villa down. We barely survive.

 

My observations after going through that highly flawed exercise:

  • Barring a monumental collapse (not out of the question given the pressure and lack of experience), I don't see how Leicester finishes worse than 3rd. Remarkable.
  • Seems very likely Chelsea finish in the top 7.
  • I don't see any hope for Norwich. They will finish 19th.
  • The derby will very likely decide whether us or the mackems finish higher, and will likely determine who gets relegated.

:suicide:

  • We will probably be in the relegation zone until at least the derby and possibly into April. Going to be a serious test of nerves.

:scared:

 

These are the reasons I have us going down quicker than if we were behind the Happy Gardens takeaway.

No fight, spirit or guts in most of our lot and they will buckle under the pressure and the non guidance of our prat of a manager

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Pata

Pata

Posted
Posted

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

I'm at a 7.  So apparently, I think there is a 70% chance we'll go down.  According to you, I should go and put thousands of pounds on us getting relegated at around 5/4.  How is the terrible tipping line business?  You winning much? :lol:

 

I'll keep my money in the bank, cheers. 

 

Ooh, look at Richie Rich here. To be honest I don't know how much money you have in the bank but it's poor form to openly brag about it.

 

5/4 needs about 45% probability, that's terrible value for you with your 70% expectancy? Guaranteed to be the bet of your life, no matter the outcome. For the other questions, I don't have a tipping line business or bet much outside some major events. You win some and you lose some. I hope you don't bet much.

 

(Hope I'm not getting whooshed, your post was so tragic that I wouldn't know what to bet on at 5/4.)

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Lush Vlad

Lush Vlad

Posted
Posted

I was more in awe at how serious you appeared to be taking it?!  I wasn't deadly serious, no.  I was hoping you weren't, either?

 

It's a light hearted system, where people are kind of saying on a scale of 1-10, how worried are you about relegation?  You've come in and suggested people should be putting a load of money on us getting relegated, because they 'personally' think it is quite likely to happen? 

 

I've quite often fancied teams to win games, or thought a both teams to score bet, was nailed on.  Funnily enough, I didn't go and withdraw my savings, to bet on them and 'print money'....  So because I apparently think there is a 70% chance that we'll go down.  That means it's going to happen and is worth a large bet?  Sorry, I'm still failing to see your logic?

 

A bet always carries a significant risk, regardless of odds.  Especially if you start lumping on short priced things and favs.  L'Ami Serge got turned over at 1/5 on Saturday, in a three horse race, by an 8/1 shot.  I would have said prior to the race, that there is about a 90% chance of the horse winning.  Sure glad I didn't spunk a load of money on that, just because of how sure I was.  I don't bet a great deal, no.  But I'm glad I don't use your percentage system, to guide me. 

 

Oh and no.  Not really Richie Rich.  I might have 2 grand in a joint savings account.  Sorry if that came across as me trying to boast about having loads of money.  I can assure you I do not  :lol:

 

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Pata

Pata

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Posted

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's fucking common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

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Lush Vlad

Lush Vlad

Posted
Posted

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

 

I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put.  But this printing money thing, is absurd?  How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved?  It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process.  That's printing money. 

 

As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet.  I beg to differ.  IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything.  I would rather stake small, on better odds.  I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens.  I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas.  20/1, beating a 16/1.  Returned about £250 odd.  I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs.  I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well.  In my head, I fancied that to win.  So it's a good bet."  :lol:

 

If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used.  Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit.  Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav.  But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. 

 

It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have.  I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet.  But maybe that's just me?

 

Anyway.  Back on topic.  I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. 

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cp40

cp40

Posted
Posted

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

I'm at a 7.  So apparently, I think there is a 70% chance we'll go down.  According to you, I should go and put thousands of pounds on us getting relegated at around 5/4.  How is the terrible tipping line business?  You winning much? :lol:

 

I'll keep my money in the bank, cheers. 

 

Ooh, look at Richie Rich here. To be honest I don't know how much money you have in the bank but it's poor form to openly brag about it.

 

5/4 needs about 45% probability, that's terrible value for you with your 70% expectancy? Guaranteed to be the bet of your life, no matter the outcome. For the other questions, I don't have a tipping line business or bet much outside some major events. You win some and you lose some. I hope you don't bet much.

 

(Hope I'm not getting whooshed, your post was so tragic that I wouldn't know what to bet on at 5/4.)

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's fucking common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

 

I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put.  But this printing money thing, is absurd?  How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved?  It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process.  That's printing money. 

 

As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet.  I beg to differ.  IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything.  I would rather stake small, on better odds.  I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens.  I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas.  20/1, beating a 16/1.  Returned about £250 odd.  I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs.  I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well.  In my head, I fancied that to win.  So it's a good bet."  :lol:

 

If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used.  Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit.  Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav.  But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. 

 

It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have.  I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet.  But maybe that's just me?

 

Anyway.  Back on topic.  I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. 

 

 

 

jeesus

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Disco

Disco

Posted
Posted

What we really needed was it all quoted again.

 

Here you go mate:

 

We've spent most of the season in the bottom 3 yet people have us at 6 and are confident we will survived, the facts and evidence suggests otherwise

 

People not understanding the number in this thread has been a pet hate of mine for seasons now. 6 means people think we are 60% likely to go down, that's not very confident. You can get 2.25-2.32 from the bookies that we go down. The 7-10 camp should put all their savings on that and print money.

 

I'm at a 7.  So apparently, I think there is a 70% chance we'll go down.  According to you, I should go and put thousands of pounds on us getting relegated at around 5/4.  How is the terrible tipping line business?  You winning much? :lol:

 

I'll keep my money in the bank, cheers. 

 

Ooh, look at Richie Rich here. To be honest I don't know how much money you have in the bank but it's poor form to openly brag about it.

 

5/4 needs about 45% probability, that's terrible value for you with your 70% expectancy? Guaranteed to be the bet of your life, no matter the outcome. For the other questions, I don't have a tipping line business or bet much outside some major events. You win some and you lose some. I hope you don't bet much.

 

(Hope I'm not getting whooshed, your post was so tragic that I wouldn't know what to bet on at 5/4.)

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's fucking common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

You see the post I originally quoted? Fundamental lack of understanding about the relegationometer while questioning other people's choices. That pisses me off as I said earlier.

 

Obviously (?) the 'bet your savings on this' is hyperbole. Doesn't change the fact that getting 5/4 on something you think is 70-100% likely to happen is basically printing money. It's not my own percentage system, it's f***ing common sense. Betting is based on probability and odds!

 

Short priced favourite can still be a good price and betting on them actually lowers the variance. L'Ami Serge would have been a good bet (regardless of the outcome) at 1/5 if you expected him/her to have a 90% chance to win before the race. Losing that bet is just variance but you would be making money in the long run as it was clearly +EV.

 

I don't have a huge problem with the rest of what you've put.  But this printing money thing, is absurd?  How is it printing money, when it could quite clearly lose and there is a fairly substantial risk involved?  It's not like it's a bet to lay and you're making 2-3 points in the process.  That's printing money. 

 

As for a punt on a losing 1/5 shot, still being a good bet.  I beg to differ.  IMO, betting is about value, as much as anything.  I would rather stake small, on better odds.  I'm rarely tempted by a single bet on one lower than evens.  I suppose it depends what type of punter you are? The best bet I have had, was a £1 reverse forecast in the 100 Guineas.  20/1, beating a 16/1.  Returned about £250 odd.  I've been burnt plenty of times, betting big on shorter priced favs.  I haven't immediately thought afterwards "oh well.  In my head, I fancied that to win.  So it's a good bet."  :lol:

 

If you follow tipping and naps tables, where a £1 level stakes is used.  Then the favourite often yields a lot of wins, but with a low or minus profit.  Obviously, I'm not saying you'll always bet on the fav.  But it just shows that betting on short priced things, that you think will win, isn't exactly a system that will win you lots of money. 

 

It's not an exact science and there are to many variables, to break it down as simply as you have.  I don't call fancying something to win at short odds, then watching it get turned over and losing, a good bet.  But maybe that's just me?

 

Anyway.  Back on topic.  I'm at a 7 (70%) and we are s*** at football and I think, we will most probably go down. 

 

 

 

jeesus

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