Relegationometer

[STM]

I had Southampton and Stoke joining West Brom and it didn't go down to the last game.

 

We finished 12th, I included defeats against Spurs, Watford, Chelsea and a draw against Arsenal.

 

We are going to be alright lads.

[James]

Southampton and West Ham look on a downward spiral.

 

Stoke also seem to be going nowhere. West Brom? Pfft.

 

Swansea seem OK. Huddersfield will fight to stay up and just do it.

 

Palace might also just manage to survive as they have been slowly clawing back the points.

 

Above all that we will be absolutely fine, even if we end up getting pulled back in a bit.

 

Shame about those last ten mins against Bournemouth if we had won that I think the takeover talks could have resumed.

[ponsaelius]

This site has us on 5% now. I guess this also reflects the odds that the bookies are giving.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

It seems a bit low to me, considering my natural pessimism. However, looking at this it is apparent that our run in is one of the easier ones of the bottom 12 teams, with only Bournemouth and Palace having statistically easier final games:

 

http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=10

 

Taking this into account, our form, the 5 point buffer and the goal difference advantage puts us in a position of strength that is reflected by the long odds of relegation. It would likely take a catastrophic collapse in form and a bottling of the 'gimme' home fixtures in order for us to be go down. So it's unlikely, but knowing what happened to us mid-season means it is still an outside possibility.

[Altamullan]

It's because people make the link that the more teams involved at the bottom and/or the better the teams are means that you'll need a higher points total to stay up, which isn't necessarily the case.  There are only so many points to go around and so many teams involved that at least a few of them will f*** up and only pick a few points up between now and the end of the season.

FWIW, apparently historically a correlation which stands out is that when the champions achieve a higher points total there tends to be a lower total required to stay up. Man City look good for a record points return, so if this association holds-up, we’ll be looking at around 35/36 points to be safe. Wouldn’t want to chance it mind!

[STM]

We've conceded less goals than Arsenal this season, so far, which is a stunning achievement and further goes to show where our deficiencies are.

[Stifler]

Just put 1-0 / 0-1 for win and 0-0 for draws

 

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/)/

 

 

Man, I really want West Ham to get relegated

I'm not sure how you have looked at Stoke's remaining fixtures and though 'They are getting 12 more points'.

[Danh1]

Stoke's last two games are Palace and Swansea, could be decisive.

[Karjala]

 

Still a bit crazy to me to think where we'd be with a bit of luck in the injury department (Lascelles earlier in season) and a few bounces/decisions going our way (Bournemouth home) and closing out a few of those late 85-ish minute games.

 

Yeah exactly, makes you realise once again how well a Rafa NUFC could do with a decent amount of backing. Jesus, £30m on a striker last summer and those games we dominated but only got draws may well mostly have been wins and us in the top-8.

[Superior Acuña]

I reckon Palace have too much quality to go down and West Ham looks depressing but they'll manage. Barring a reaction to tonight's sacking, it's WBA/Stoke/Soton

[Minhosa]

Would love to be mathematically safe and then just sit back and watch this unfold as it's been the most interesting thing about the league this year.

[samptime29]

HUGE game for Stoke at home to Everton this weekend. They have Arsenal (away), Spurs (home) after that.

 

 

[Decky]

What a great weekend. Kinda frustrating that some teams are playing this weekend while we aren't. Hopefully the 5 point gap is still there after their games.

[ponsaelius]

This site has us on 5% now. I guess this also reflects the odds that the bookies are giving.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

Down to 4% now after that result.

[Jericho]

We would have to lose 7 out of the last 8 games to go down. Since 1995-96 season only Wimbledon in 1999-00 season have been more than four points clear of the bottom three after 30 rounds and went down, but they were 16th after 30 games and got only 1 point in the last 8 games of the season. Teams from 14th place or higher after 30 rounds have never went down.

 

I've checked the Premier League tables after 30 rounds (tables including results of postponed games, so every team had 30 games, like it is right now).

So these are relegated teams, their place after 30 games and how many points clear they were of bottom three, if applicable.

2016-17: 18. Hull, 19. Middlesbrough, 20. Sunderland

2015-16: 18. Norwich, 19. Newcastle, 20. Aston Villa

2014-15: 15. Hull (+3), 18. Burnley, 19. QPR

2013-14: 17. Norwich (+1), 19. Cardiff, 20. Fulham

2012-13: 18. Wigan, 19. Reading, 20. QPR

2011-12: 16. Bolton (+4), 17. Blackburn (+3), 20. Wolves

2010-11: 15. Blackpool (+1), 17. West Ham (GD), 19. Birmingham

2009-10: 18. Burnley, 19. Hull, 20. Portsmouth

2008-09: 18. Newcastle, 19. Middlesbrough, 20. West Brom

2007-08: 15. Reading (+3), 16. Birmingham (+2), 20. Derby

2006-07: 17. Sheff Utd (+4), 18. Charlton, 20. Watford

2005-06: 17. Birmingham (GD), 18. West Brom, 20. Sunderland

2004-05: 17. Southampton (+1), 18. Crystal Palace, 20. Norwich

2003-04: 18. Leicester, 19. Leeds, 20. Wolves

2002-03: 18. West Ham, 19. West Brom, 20. Sunderland

2001-02: 17. Ipswich (+1), 19. Derby, 20. Leicester

2000-01: 18. Man City, 19. Coventry, 20. Bradford

1999-00: 16. Wimbledon (+6), 19. Sheff Wed, 20. Watford

1998-99: 17. Blackburn (+1), 19. Charlton, 20. Nottm Forest

1997-98: 18. Barnsley, 19. Bolton, 20. Crystal Palace

1996-97: 16. Nottm Forest (+2), 16. Sunderland (+2), 19. Middlesbrough

1995-96: 17. Man City (+2), 19. QPR, 20. Bolton

 

And this is a comparison, how many points team in 18th place had after 30 games and 38 games.

[samptime29]

Huddersfield/Palace draw and Everton beating Stoke this weekend would be canny.

[Dave]

Stoke's last two games are Palace and Swansea, could be decisive.

 

Huddersfield/Palace draw and Everton beating Stoke this weekend would be canny.

 

They can't all win.

[HaydnNUFC]

Still a bit crazy to me to think where we'd be with a bit of luck in the injury department (Lascelles earlier in season) and a few bounces/decisions going our way (Bournemouth home) and closing out a few of those late 85-ish minute games.

 

Those games, the trip to Anfield aside, we could've gotten something from had we taken chances, and I'll include the 2 games against Man City in that. The Burnley, Swansea and Bournemouth games especially. We'd be well clear of the shit had we had a decent striker on the pitch for those.

[Dokko]

Be quite nice if all 3 promoted clubs stay up. Would show just how competitive last season in the championship was and that we did alright securing the title.

[Dokko]

Still a bit crazy to me to think where we'd be with a bit of luck in the injury department (Lascelles earlier in season) and a few bounces/decisions going our way (Bournemouth home) and closing out a few of those late 85-ish minute games.

 

Those games, the trip to Anfield aside, we could've gotten something from had we taken chances, and I'll include the 2 games against Man City in that. The Burnley, Swansea and Bournemouth games especially. We'd be well clear of the shit had we had a decent striker on the pitch for those.

 

The results against Burnley, Swansea and Brighton at home annoy the shit out of me. We’d be on 40pts and done. Incredible we fucked up all 3 results and yet look like living to tell the tale, tbh, back then I thought it was a certainty we’d be going.

[Dave]

Done is a bit of an understatement, we'd be 7th or 8th and eyeing up the Europa League.

[Minhosa]

Bournemouth an’all.

[HaydnNUFC]

But subs.

[Altamullan]

Great work Jericho phenomenal stats-fest! (And quite reassuring).

[joeyt]

Be quite nice if all 3 promoted clubs stay up. Would show just how competitive last season in the championship was and that we did alright securing the title.

If only we'd had Steve McClaren

[Nexumaster]

I've gone for five. We need to beat Huddersfield and are capable of doing so, but even if we do I worry about us getting anything from Leicester, Arsenal and Everton.