The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[NWMag]

I’m about a 9 at the moment. 
 

However, putting the emotion aside it’s important to remember that we are only 6 points adrift with over half a season to play. 
 

On multiple occasions teams have made up bigger ground in a lot less time, so it is still doable. 
 

football is a funny game and there is always unexpected results, I’m sure we will win some games this season that we had no expectation to win. 
 

We could easily be just 3 points from safety if we beat Burnley and Watfords results go our way. 
 

We are still in it but it will be tough. 

[Guest HTT II]

I’m at a ten, but we need to keep within 6 points at all times going into the last month or so between the 17th placed team and us, it’s doable, but my good we have Everest to climb and come back down to do that. 

[LV]

1 hour ago, Scotty66 said:

If we do go down you can bet the PL and all the clubs will be passing new rules left, right and centre to stop our owners plowing money into the club. 

 

As we won't be at the table any more I think they'll really tighten things up. It won't be impossible of course but you can bet they'll do everything they can to slow our spending power for when we come back into the league. 

 

Go back a couple of pages in here from last night and you’ll see that there is the odd one on this board who doesn’t believe the PL clubs will try anything. 
 

They’ll absolutely give it a go 

 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Are the negative stats just based on number of wins to this point? Like how few people have survived etc?

6 points behind with over half a season left doesn't really seem as impossible.

[black_n_white]

I guess looking at our upcoming fixtures it could quite possible be much more than 6 beginning next year, maybe that’s been factored in?

[GideonShandy]

39 minutes ago, LV said:

 

Go back a couple of pages in here from last night and you’ll see that there is the odd one on this board who doesn’t believe the PL clubs will try anything. 
 

They’ll absolutely give it a go 

 

I could see them reviving the "Big Picture" idea of reducing the Premier League to 18 clubs, for example by having just two clubs relegated from the PL and only one promoted from the Championship for the next two seasons, to reduce our chances of bouncing straight back.

[LV]

54 minutes ago, GideonShandy said:

I could see them reviving the "Big Picture" idea of reducing the Premier League to 18 clubs, for example by having just two clubs relegated from the PL and only one promoted from the Championship for the next two seasons, to reduce our chances of bouncing straight back.

Absolutely

 

Im expecting all kinds of attempts along these lines 

[Fantail Breeze]

1 hour ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Are the negative stats just based on number of wins to this point? Like how few people have survived etc?

6 points behind with over half a season left doesn't really seem as impossible.

 

Leicester were 7 points adrift with 8 games to go in 2014 and managed to survive ffs

 

We’ve literally got three times the number of games to overturn a smaller gap.

 

People are being so over dramatic and handpicking their stats/comparisons that are completely irrelevant to the here and now.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Fantail Breeze

[Holloway]

Think we'll gradually improve and pick up a few unexpected wins,making for a nerve wracking campaign. If we go down Eddie can stay as long as Ritchie and Clarke have been fucked into the sea

 

 

[Ankles Bennett]

As someone said on the radio this morning its not like we are losing all our games. If we can add goals in January we could easily stay up.

[Shays Given Tim Flowers]

Goals ain’t the problem. 

[GWN]

I look at the other teams and  we are so far behind them .No chance 

[Shearergol]

Just now, GWN said:

I look at the other teams and  we are so far behind them .No chance 

with 11 men last night we beat Norwich. We were better than Brentford too.

[Khalidao]

There is nothing impossible here, seriously not just a cliche. I've seen plenty of magnificent comebacks across all football leagues throughout the years, and they're not rare. It simply takes a good run of form combined with a disastrous one for rivals and you can suddenly find yourself above them in the table.

 

Also, downplaying the January transfer market as a non-factor is ridiculous. It changed the fortunes of struggling clubs in the past and will definitely change Newcastle's season if the right acquisitions are made. I think giving Howe full control in this coming transfer window would be ideal, then bring a DoF starting from the summer.

 

 

[The Prophet]

Watford have City at the weekend. If we win, we'll more than likely only be three adrift. It's so important that we win.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by The Prophet

[GM]

On 30/11/2021 at 22:14, LV said:

Us going down definitely, whatever anyone may say, gives the PL and the clubs set to lose most by having us there another bite at the cherry of keeping us out. 
 

Whatever anyone says. 

You knows it. 

[midds]

The only thing we can do is to win as many games as possible and see where we are in about March. We've got no control over any other match and it's pointless worrying about other teams or games, we can't influence anything. If we, somehow, manage to scramble 34 points (or whatever) we'll probably have a chance. It'll take an unprecedented run of form to get near that though, it's got to be said. 

[B-more Mag]

It's all about the accumulation of points, you see.

[GWN]

2 hours ago, Shearergol said:

with 11 men last night we beat Norwich. We were better than Brentford too.

yet beat neither 

[GWN]

20 minutes ago, midds said:

The only thing we can do is to win as many games as possible and see where we are in about March. We've got no control over any other match and it's pointless worrying about other teams or games, we can't influence anything. If we, somehow, manage to scramble 34 points (or whatever) we'll probably have a chance. It'll take an unprecedented run of form to get near that though, it's got to be said. 

 

well you have to worry about other games like , we have no control I agree but our survival depends mainly on others slipping up now to have any chance at all .

[The Prophet]

Once we're up to speed, we're on par with the pack of clubs that finish 13th-17th every season. Unfortunately we're going to need to do better than that to stay up.

[Karjala]

Everyone likes to refer to the teams we were better than and should have beat - but we didnt beat any of them. People still referring to us "picking up a win or two and picking up" yet we've been saying that for at least 6 weeks.

 

Yes, we are 'only' 6 points from safety, but Watford 'only' need another 24 points from 24 games and they'll be safe. We 'only' need another 31.

 

31 points is minimum 8 wins IMO, coupled with 7 draws. Are we really likely to only lose 9 of our last 24?

 

Its not over, but ever week that ticks by, is one less game to achieve our 'only' target. 

 

We somehow need 6 or 7 points before the New Year, or we'll be in a situation where we need 28 points from 18 games (Europa League qualification form), and just can't see us winning 7 or 8 of the last 18.

 

Goes without saying, once again, we absolutely must beat Burnley. 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Karjala

[The College Dropout]

Can’t stop conceding. 
 

Dont have a manager renowned for organising a defence.  
 

3/4 good signings and we have a chance.  But it’s 3 or 4 that’s needed, not 1 or 2.  

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I think we’ll know if we have a chance before the transfer window really. Although obviously it’ll make a big difference. 

[DebuchyAndTheBeast]

Voted 9 and that we'll be relegated.

 

We've already played all the promoted teams and we haven't managed to beat any of them.

 

I'm also not seeing any spirit or urgency from the players. I know that we shouldn't be panicking yet but we need to show more grit and resolve. 

 

Unless we can sign a few players in January and who can have the same impact as Willock had last season, we'll sleepwalk to relegation.