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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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The club is pulling in the right direction, players are performing well, the fans are fully on board. I'm so happy to have my club back. At a 2 now, just cos you never fucking know. But man it feels good to care again.

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3 minutes ago, Unbelievable said:

 

Very slight plus side? We are above Brentford (1 point and 2 games in hand), Leeds (2 points and 1 game in hand plus a much better goal difference) and Everton (3 points and they have 1 game in hand and a better goal difference). All three of those sides are on an absolute horrible run of form, similar to ours under Bruce at the start of the season. A 4 would suggest it's basically between us and Burnley, but those three teams are in a much worse situation than the both of us. That's not a very slight plus side, that's absolutely fucking massive. For us to go down now it requires our form to dip substantially to Bruce-levels as well as for at least two of those teams plus Burnley to turn it around and pass us from where they are currently (below us). Anything more than a 2 (20% chance of going down) is just extremely pessimistic thinking at this stage.


By very slight plus side I was talking about Burnley gaining so many points recently. Which on the face of it doesn’t appear to be a good thing hence the slight plus side. 
 

We’re only 4 points clear. I think we’re less likely to go down than not. It’s a good thing, we’re playing really well but it’s still close. 
 

Also some people take these numbers way too seriously man [emoji38]

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We're not going down, the more I think about it, you can see there are far too many gradual improvements we've seen under him to not have faith anymore

 

- Addition of Burn, Trippier and Targett has been the season saver. Seeing Schar in there ahead of Lascelles is excellent. The defense now isn't a total utter mess.

 

- Getting Willock up for it again and Frasier playing his best football for us.

 

To do it without Wilson which is a massive blow and without using the Bruno wildcard right away, as well at times being without Trippier and St. Maximin, that's all positive and impressive.

 

I just feel the bloke is in a much better position of knowledge and control of what can be done in a number of scenarios. This will see us through. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Amir_9

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Yep, said for a while we're not going down. Aside from Cambridge we've shown signs of improvement throughout for me. Howe had to get the squad fit before he could even implement anything else. I'd love to know his honest thoughts on Steve Bruce... 

 

I can barely see us finishing lower than we are now tbh, the wheels are in motion and enough fixtures are left for everyone to have big sides to play. We have form, unity and Eddie Howe. The rest have sinking ships, lack of quality and/or division. 

 

 

Edited by Heron

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Rock bottom 1, only Everton can catch us up to our game week and only on goal difference. Form tables suggest we're clear but you never know, however after Howe and our new owners have got me so invested in football again I've been watching a lot of games and taken a close eye watching the teams around us it's hard to see how any of them get back above us now bar a real change in form. The only team to worry about below are Burnley, they'll almost definitely be safe but it won't be at our expense, they're just so hard to beat and will keep racking up the draws with the odd win while other teams around them flounder.

 

If I was an Everton supporter I would be extremely worried right now, too many individuals in that team, no experience to handle the pressure of being down there and a manager who has limited experience as a manager and of relegation both as a player and manager. Too good to go down?

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1 minute ago, Mattoon said:

Rock bottom 1, only Everton can catch us up to our game week and only on goal difference. Form tables suggest we're clear but you never know, however after Howe and our new owners have got me so invested in football again I've been watching a lot of games and taken a close eye watching the teams around us it's hard to see how any of them get back above us now bar a real change in form. The only team to worry about below are Burnley, they'll almost definitely be safe but it won't be at our expense, they're just so hard to beat and will keep racking up the draws with the odd win while other teams around them flounder.

 

If I was an Everton supporter I would be extremely worried right now, too many individuals in that team, no experience to handle the pressure of being down there and a manager who has limited experience as a manager and of relegation both as a player and manager. Too good to go down?

Didn't on the Beek say he didn't want to come to us and be involved in a relegation scrap. Off his lips the daft cunt. :lol:

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Also need to point out how impressive we've been minus our key players albeit today helped by a red (that was a red), its still strange to me to feel this club so united for once and not just on the pitch. 

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7 minutes ago, PlymouthGeordie said:

Performance and form wise I'm a 0.

 

Based on the league table I'm a 4. We are still only 4 points clear and the team in 18th have played a game less.

 

Don't understand this way of thinking. There's a 40 per cent chance we'll be relegated? Yes, Burnley could overtake us with their game in hand, but we've also brought Leeds and Brentford well and truly into the picture, while Everton are still there as well.

 

If you take the view that Norwich and Watford are going, there's one place left for five teams - a 20 per cent chance each.

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10 minutes ago, PlymouthGeordie said:

Performance and form wise I'm a 0.

 

Based on the league table I'm a 4. We are still only 4 points clear and the team in 18th have played a game less.


I think I agree with this. Burnley will be the turd that won’t flush yet again. Hit a bit of form and they have the easiest looking run in of the teams down the bottom. 
 

We need to keep momentum and the gap over the next 4-5 games. Some tough ones in there and all. 
 

Edit. Not the 4/10 for going down. Just that I’m still a bit concerned that the gap isn’t exactly massive. 

 

 

Edited by Lush Vlad

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Just now, WarrenBartonCentrePartin said:

 

Don't understand this way of thinking. There's a 40 per cent chance we'll be relegated? Yes, Burnley could overtake us with their game in hand, but we've also brought Leeds and Brentford well and truly into the picture, while Everton are still there as well.

 

If you take the view that Norwich and Watford are going, there's one place left for five teams - a 20 per cent chance each.

 

A lot of variables at play.

 

For example, you could argue our form is unsustainable where as Brentford, Leeds and Everton can pretty much only improve they've been that bad of late.

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Just now, PlymouthGeordie said:

 

A lot of variables at play.

 

For example, you could argue our form is unsustainable where as Brentford, Leeds and Everton can pretty much only improve they've been that bad of late.

 

Being as pessimistic I can, having us beat Palace at home and Norwich away and not getting a single point elsewhere, puts us on 31. While those two games might not result in three points each, there's no way we're only going to pick up six points in our remaining 13.

 

You see it every year, but form, confidence and momentum play a massive part at this point in the season.

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Burnley cannot catch us with their game in hand, only Everton can. So not sure why people are too concerned. Think they play Spurs or Man City or someone too... 

 

 

Edited by Heron

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1 minute ago, Heron said:

Burnley cannot catch us with their game in hand, only Everton can. So not sure why people are too concerned. Think they play Spurs or Man City or someone too... 

 

 

 

 

Only we can relegate us now, so long as we don't get complacent and continue this intensity, teamwork and tenacity we've got enough momentum to finish lower mid-table.

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1 minute ago, Mattoon said:

 

Only we can relegate us now, so long as we don't get complacent and continue this intensity, teamwork and tenacity we've got enough momentum to finish lower mid-table.

This is it, we're not relying on results to get ourselves out of trouble. Everything is in our hands. 

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2.

 

We are confident, solid at the back and in midfield and the midfielders are now scoring goals. I actually think our attacking play will improve from here on in too and this is without considering Trippier or Wilson returning. 
 

Another 3 wins and 3 draws gets us to 37. 

 

 

Edited by ExiledGeordie

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3 hours ago, ExiledGeordie said:

2.

 

We are confident, solid at the back and in midfield and the midfielders are now scoring goals. I actually think our attacking play will improve from here on in too and this is without considering Trippier or Wilson returning. 
 

Another 3 wins and 3 draws gets us to 37. 

 

 

 

Honestly no idea why people are still 2s now. For me we're a zero. At most a 1 if you're of the 'mathematically safe' frame of mind. 

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