The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[SUPERTOON]

I’ve just had a look at Burnley’s remaining games, can’t see them getting out of it tbh.

[RodneyCisse]

I also hope we don’t end up with a narrative where Lampard “saves Everton” 

[The Prophet]

Not only would it require an improbable dip in results, for a team unbeaten in eight. It would require a dramatic upturn from all of Burnley, Leeds and Everton to overhaul us.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by The Prophet

[Nobody]

We're more likely to finish top half (12/1) than getting relegated (14/1) according to offs on bet365.

[PlymouthGeordie]

27 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Not only would it require an improbably dip in results, for a team unbeaten in eight. It would require a dramatic upturn from all of Burnley, Leeds and Everton to overhaul us.

 

I don't disagree but I'll always worry about relegation until we're mathematically safe. It's the effect of having been owned by big Mike for so long.

 

Although a win on Thursday would all but do it as we'd surely get a further 5 points from our remaining games.

[Nobody]

If we win on Thursday, I'd be seriously tempted to lock this thread. 

[Skeletor]

The dream of Everton going down starting to look a reality. They remind me of us in 2009.

[TomYam]

2 hours ago, Skeletor said:

The dream of Everton going down starting to look a reality. They remind me of us in 2009.

 

Difference is there are more teams fighting relegation this year. 

 

If we only win one more game this season, let it be at Goodison.

[Fantail Breeze]

4 points from Southampton and Everton and we’re safe. Especially if that’s a win at Everton.

 

Only realistically need 8 points from 12 games.

 

Based on their points earned so far, Burnley are set to reach 30 points. If you were generous and said they’ll get a higher proportion of points at the end of the season due to the fear of relegation, they’re still not going to get much higher than 36.

[relámpago blanco]

What pleases me most about Evertons descent is that it's the fans fault for creating a toxic environment and not giving Rafa a chance.  That toxicity has carried over in the dressing room and Lampard isn't the type of personality that can correct that I don't think.

[Thiago]

9 hours ago, SUPERTOON said:

I’ve just had a look at Burnley’s remaining games, can’t see them getting out of it tbh.

The thing with Burnley is they remind me a bit of those UFC fighters that only want to wrestle. If they can get a hold of you and take it to the mat that's when their experience makes it a turgid affair that's hard to win. I think their games are so hard to call for that reason.

[astraguy]

Just seen evertons fixtures  if we or wolves get anything i can't see them staying up

[relámpago blanco]

5 hours ago, Fantail Breeze said:

4 points from Southampton and Everton and we’re safe. Especially if that’s a win at Everton.

 

Only realistically need 8 points from 12 games.

 

Based on their points earned so far, Burnley are set to reach 30 points. If you were generous and said they’ll get a higher proportion of points at the end of the season due to the fear of relegation, they’re still not going to get much higher than 36.

Ah, the old "I'm scared of being relegated" adds an extra yard to every player.

[nbthree3]

https://twitter.com/TeleFootball/status/1501271837195517956?s=20&t=1-Xy1P8q2tnaZpkAT2e3Cw

 

 

Everton are yet to release their accounts for 2021-22, but their last set of accounts showed that the club paid £165million in wages and while that figure may have dropped, it is common knowledge that they are among the highest payers in the Premier League.

Outside the top six, Everton’s wage bill is believed to be the highest in the division with Yerry Mina, Andre Gomes, Jordan Pickford and Richarlison all thought to be earning just over or around £100,000-a-week, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin not far behind.

 

One source told Telegraph Sport: “Everton didn’t dream they would be in this position, but if they go down it could be a financial disaster.”

Relegation would leave Everton, whose last accounts showed a £140m loss, with little option but to try to cash in on some of their biggest earners and would end any hope of signing on-loan Donny van de Beek permanently.

But while they would be able to cut some costs, they still face having to pay £10m for Dele Alli once the former Tottenham Hotspur star has played 20 games which he cannot do until next season.

 

Not looking good if they go down

[Doc]

Champion.

[bowlingcrofty]

8 points is enough I reckon. 2 wins and 2 draws from 12 games. 

[The Prophet]

1 hour ago, relámpago blanco said:

What pleases me most about Evertons descent is that it's the fans fault for creating a toxic environment and not giving Rafa a chance.  That toxicity has carried over in the dressing room and Lampard isn't the type of personality that can correct that I don't think.

 

That's a reach and a half.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by The Prophet

[Wolfcastle]

Had a look at the games of those below us for the first time, wouldn't dare do ours, not factoring in our games against some of them I've got 10points keeping us above at least three of them.  And that's with giving Leeds 16 and Burney 16+ whatever they get against us which some might see as generous.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Wolfcastle

[robbo_11]

On 19/02/2022 at 21:05, robbo_11 said:

The table will be interesting by 14th March - some key fixtures to be played and will set the scene for the end of season run in. Everton play Man City (h), Spurs (a) and Wolves (h) while in comparion Leeds play Man Utd (h), Liverpool (a), Spurs (h), Leicester (a), Aston Villa (h) and Norwich (h). Brentford as mentioned above have some key fixtures against us, Norwich and Burnley.

 

If we can pick up some promising results in this timeframe you have to feel like those three clubs above us will be dragged into it.

 

I'm sticking with the 14th March being key to how the table will look, but we've won both our games so far and you only have to look at Leeds and Everton form to have concerns for them both. Everton lose and Leeds pick up two wins as above will make it very interesting!

[The Prophet]

Our current points total and GD would have been enough to stay up last season.

[McDog]

https://theathletic.com/3130748/2022/02/16/the-whole-thing-is-broken-really-promoted-clubs-and-the-uphill-battle-to-survive/

 

"A phone call to a Premier League club director starts with a discussion about why “30 is the new 40” when it comes to the number of points needed to avoid relegation. But by the end of our conversation, we have strayed into a related but much deeper issue: about economic power within a league that is being stretched from top to bottom like a rubber band that is about to snap."

 

"A little bit of history was created last season, although it was no cause for celebration.

For the first time since the competition began in the early 1990s, none of the three clubs relegated from the Premier League managed to get to 30 points. "

[Fantail Breeze]

5 hours ago, relámpago blanco said:

Ah, the old "I'm scared of being relegated" adds an extra yard to every player.

 

Pretty much every year the teams down the bottom get more points towards the end of the season, including some shock results against the too six. 

[madras]

5 minutes ago, Fantail Breeze said:

 

Pretty much every year the teams down the bottom get more points towards the end of the season, including some shock results against the too six. 

Is that fact ? I mean have you got evidence to back that up or is it like so many other footballing myths ?

[Guest]

Definitely happened with Sunderland the year we went down. Even we got results against City, Liverpool & Spurs in the run-in.

[Skeletor]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/17881085/man-utd-newcastle-van-de-beek-everton/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunfootballfacebook080322&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1646750426