The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[The Prophet]

It's a forum. Relentless and sometimes irrational panicking since circa February (when potentially finishing bottom half became a hot topic) is fair game. So is poking a bit of immature fun at it.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by The Prophet

[Shays Given Tim Flowers]

We’re going to beat Brighton. 

[Shadow Puppets]

29 minutes ago, Wandy said:

 

I thought we were pretty poor against Arsenal to be honest, and wasn't taken in by the "amazing Arsenal" stuff after that game. They were there for the taking that day but we were just really poor in the middle of the park. And then on Saturday we were equally as bad in that area. We aren't playing terribly but we are definitely creaking and to me there is just the feeling that injuries are going to swing momentum away from us.

Well why don’t you think positively. If the fanbase walk into St James’ with an air of negativity on Thursday night, then we’ll suffer as a result.

[Wandy]

10 minutes ago, Shadow Puppets said:

Well why don’t you think positively. If the fanbase walk into St James’ with an air of negativity on Thursday night, then we’ll suffer as a result.

 

I'm just looking at what I see in front of my eyes bud. A team that looks to be creaking due to being hamstrung in key positions.

 

Agree about the fans on Thursday though. Its a season defining game and the team need the same kind of backing that they got which helped them pull away from the bottom 3 last season.

[The Prophet]

No doubt the atmosphere will be class on Thursday.

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, Wolfcastle said:

For all the "bed wetting" of only a week ago its near enough 50/50 now isn't it?

 

50% chance of beating Brighton and anything less were having to beat Chelsea as well as Leicester.

No.  
 

Even if we lose to Brighton we are still favourites. Over the last 10 games and most of the season. Leicester and Chelsea are as bad as it gets in this division as teams. 

[The College Dropout]

And if we beat Brighton. It’s 2 match points. 
 

 

Nowhere near 50/50. It’s ours to lose. 

[Wolfcastle]

If we lose to Brighton the chances of beating Chelsea at Chelsea can't be much more than 50/50. So it can't be much from 50/50 overall (as stated).

Leeds are as bad as Leicester and worse than Chelsea and we didn't win there.

[Paullow]

1 hour ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Exactly the same circumstances we were in at FT on Saturday. No idea what's changed. We need to win 2 out of 3 games of football, 2 of those are at home. 

Well two main things have changed. Firstly, Brighton hammering Arsenal away from home the next day will have naturally put major doubts in many peoples minds ahead of that upcoming match, and Liverpool winning tonight, even if expected, means there's less margin for error. Yes, we still just need win 2 of our 3 matches as you say, but after beating Southampton, it was win 2 out of Arsenal, Leeds, Brighton, and Leicester and we are there with at least one match to spare, whereas now, if we don't beat Brighton, then it's almost certainly going to go to the last day, and not many would have thought that after beating Southampton to temporarily go 12 points clear only 15 days ago, and something everyone would have massively wanted to avoid.

 

It is still in our hands to wrap it up with a game to go, two homes games, games where we are individually favourites to win (albeit not odds to beat Brighton, so as much chance of them in the 'double chance' market), but despite us not doing too much wrong since Southampton, the pendulum does seem to be swinging against us.

[Ketsbaia]

Fuck this bed-wetting narrative, like. It was realism in a place of delirium. An experienced team is relentlessly chasing down an inexperienced one whose defence has collapsed.

 

Either we finally, finally get help from someone (Villa), find a way to defeat a very good Brighton team or beat Chelsea who - for all their recent shite - are still capable of being final day dickheads. We shouldn't be assuming wins against anyone, as Leeds taught us.

[Superior Acuña]

We shouldn't be assuming wins for us, Liverpool, Brighton, or Chelsea.

[Stottie]

Still confident here.

 

Personally I wouldn't mind finishing outside the top four if the CL places went to Man U and Brighton. The possiblity that really winds me up, to an irrational level or angst and anger, is letting LIverpool in. All that crappy media fawning to them. I don't need that crap in my living room. It boils my piss.

 

I suspect some of the posts in this thread are coming from the same place. People seem much more wound up about this than they were about losing a major domestic final to Man United. That's for us, a club with no domestic trophy for nearly 70 years.

[Kanji]

One match at a time. We play Thursday. Back and focus on your fucking club. 

 

 

 

 

[r0cafella]

The reason champions league is so important is because it makes the whole process of becoming truly competitive over a long period of time much easier. As we all know football has been rigged by the big clubs who want to avoid outside competition at all cost. 

[Superior Acuña]

Don't think it's very likely scenario, but a possible scenario where GD would decide it and get really tight.

 

Liverpool draw with Villa and beat southamton, giving them 69 points.

 

We win one, and lose two. (Probs w Leicester, lose the other 2 say). Both of us would have 69 points.

 

Our GD is currently 4 better.

In that scenario Liverpool's GD would have to increase by at least 1.

Our GD would have to increase by at least 1 in one of the games, and decrease by at least 1 in the other 2 games.

 

If both ours and Liverpools games were decided by one goal, we'd finish above them with a better goal difference-difference of 2. (Us -1 from now, them +1 from now),

Or we lose 1-0 on the last day, they win 3-0 and pip us on goals scored.

 

If we lose to Brighton then Liverpool draw with Villa, we want to be trying to give Leicester a bit of a hiding.

 

Don't know what the point of this post was like.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Superior Acuña

[Stottie]

19 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

The reason champions league is so important is because it makes the whole process of becoming truly competitive over a long period of time much easier. As we all know football has been rigged by the big clubs who want to avoid outside competition at all cost. 

 

This is true, but we're already close to truly competitive. The main benefit of CL for next season is slightly more money for players. The way the club is being rebuilt, and what's happened at Chelsea indicate that slightly more money for players isn't the be all and end all, and some of it will just be patience for the efforts on facilities, backroom staff, youth setup, and scouting of prospects to bear fruit. The club is aiming for improvement all over the place, not just in the transfer market. All those other areas can steam ahead without CL.

 

I'll be frustrated if we don't get CL, but am not worried about the future of the club.

[Andybiotics]

It's over if we beat Brighton.

 

Leicester are a walking 3 points, so all focus must be on winning on Thursday.

 

[TRon]

8 hours ago, Wolfcastle said:

If we lose to Brighton the chances of beating Chelsea at Chelsea can't be much more than 50/50. So it can't be much from 50/50 overall (as stated).

Leeds are as bad as Leicester and worse than Chelsea and we didn't win there.

 

Leeds were terrible. What concerned me about that game wasn't the result, it was how underwhelming we were. We barely created a chance in open play, and scored two goals from gift pens. Then still couldn't close it out. We have to get better service to Isak and Wilson, they'll put them away if we can find them in front of goal.

[ExiledGeordie]

8 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

And if we beat Brighton. It’s 2 match points. 
 

 

Nowhere near 50/50. It’s ours to lose. 

Brighton are a very good side but the way some are talking it’s as if we’re playing City. It’s a tough game but the crowd will be mental and we’re very very hard to beat at home. 

[Gawalls]

4 hours ago, r0cafella said:

The reason champions league is so important is because it makes the whole process of becoming truly competitive over a long period of time much easier. As we all know football has been rigged by the big clubs who want to avoid outside competition at all cost. 

Genuine question - which is better in terms of making us more competitive, a good run in europa or getting knocked out early in CL? 
 

i honestly don’t know

 

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Gawalls

[Gawalls]

5 minutes ago, ExiledGeordie said:

Brighton are a very good side but the way some are talking it’s as if we’re playing City. It’s a tough game but the crowd will be mental and we’re very very hard to beat at home. 

We know we’re very very hard to beat but we need to win not draw and that’s where we’ve fallen a little short.

[Gawalls]

2 hours ago, Stottie said:

 

This is true, but we're already close to truly competitive. The main benefit of CL for next season is slightly more money for players. The way the club is being rebuilt, and what's happened at Chelsea indicate that slightly more money for players isn't the be all and end all, and some of it will just be patience for the efforts on facilities, backroom staff, youth setup, and scouting of prospects to bear fruit. The club is aiming for improvement all over the place, not just in the transfer market. All those other areas can steam ahead without CL.

 

I'll be frustrated if we don't get CL, but am not worried about the future of the club.

Agreed and not just direct CL money either, we can justify charging more on advertising etc due to the new ruling as it’s being seen more. Also I can’t see every top player now saying “let’s sign for Newcastle as they now have champions league football for the first time in 20 years.”

[Wallsendmag]

4 hours ago, Stottie said:

Still confident here.

 

Personally I wouldn't mind finishing outside the top four if the CL places went to Man U and Brighton. The possiblity that really winds me up, to an irrational level or angst and anger, is letting LIverpool in. All that crappy media fawning to them. I don't need that crap in my living room. It boils my piss.

 

I suspect some of the posts in this thread are coming from the same place. People seem much more wound up about this than they were about losing a major domestic final to Man United. That's for us, a club with no domestic trophy for nearly 70 years.

 

Agree. It's not the missing out of Champions League that would bother me so much, it's more letting Liverpool in that would irritate me.

[Slim]

I should remember by now,  what's the crack with TV matches last game of the season? Fancy watching it in town but can't see any games announced on TV?

[Kasper]

Still 80-20 to qualify.