wormy Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 35 minutes ago, Super Duper Branko Strupar said: Is there anything this forum wont argue about? Odds and stats, ffs. There's many things this forum won't ever argue about and the fact you can't see that is shortsighted to say the least. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GideonShandy Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, wormy said: There's many things this forum won't ever argue about and the fact you can't see that is shortsighted to say the least. No it isn't. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Doesn't the fivethirtyeight "Power rating" or whatever their score is have some kind of lag built into it? Like the UEFA coefficient for CL? I'm not saying their equation is perfect, it won't be, but "bottling", "mentality monsters" etc. comes down to experience and that is reflected to a degree in there. Fivethirtyeight had us on a low expected points for this season based on historic performances, not on the twenty games of Top 4 form we finished last season with. If we do miss out, it'll come down to injuries like Bruno's and Longstaff's. We didn't lose to Arsenal on Sunday due to "mentality" or "bottle". We gave it a good go but weren't at full strength in the key area of the field. Arsenal too came to SJP last season as walking wounded and left empty-handed. We should resist the urge to grab the easy narrative. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Duper Branko Strupar Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, wormy said: There's many things this forum won't ever argue about and the fact you can't see that is shortsighted to say the least. Very good Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanji Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Just beat Leeds on Saturday, eh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubaricho Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Kanji said: Just beat Leeds on Saturday, eh? 100%. Our points. Our choice. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyCisse Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Would it be more detrimental for Man U or Liverpool to miss out on 4th? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toon No9 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, RodneyCisse said: Would it be more detrimental for Man U or Liverpool to miss out on 4th? If it would mean Klopp getting sacked, I'd say Liverpool(not seeing that happening though). But with possible new ownership at Man U it would be a big blow for them missing out of CL. Would love it if both misses out and Brighton would end up 4th on last day of the season(with us 3rd of course)!😄 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeordieDazzler Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 32 minutes ago, Toon No9 said: If it would mean Klopp getting sacked, I'd say Liverpool(not seeing that happening though). But with possible new ownership at Man U it would be a big blow for them missing out of CL. Would love it if both misses out and Brighton would end up 4th on last day of the season(with us 3rd of course)!😄 Would Brighton not need to beat us for a chance of doing that? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shays Given Tim Flowers Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Draw with Leeds, beat Leicester, steamroll Brighton Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ponsaelius Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 9 hours ago, Pata said: You can still over triple your money if you think Liverpool win all their remaining games, in other words it's less than 30% chance. Decent for something that most seem to think is already written in stone. I'd say that's very good odds, aye. I would lump on that if I hadn't already put two separate bets on us missing out on top 4 anyway which was also extremely generous odds (and effectively covers the same thing). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 5 hours ago, Kanji said: Just beat Leeds on Saturday, eh? Aye. Next game is huge. Win and win handsomely by two or three goals we are looking good. Draw or a loss puts massive pressure on Brighton. Excited for Leeds. It's season defining. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 9 hours ago, Pata said: There's nothing wrong with our form either, 8-0-2 in last 10 and only behind Man City who have been perfect. Liverpool are 6-2-2 during that span. Haven't Liverpool won their last 6 in a row or something like that though? I did fancy them to win all of their remaining games but they do have a game against Villa to come, and that might be the one they come a cropper. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingcrofty Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Could do with Villa beating Spurs this weekend so they’d go to Anfield knowing a result would give them a damn good chance of EL qualification. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Regardless of what percentage we assign to it, I think we all accept there's a chance no matter how small you think it is that Liverpool can catch us. Personally at this stage I still think it's relatively small, others seems to think it's much larger. You can also assign whatever historical context you want to it to back-up your views. I've seen Keegan's team being overhauled by Man United and Leicester collapsing being used to corroborate negativity and Bobby Robson's side finishing top four and Leicester's title push to reaffirm positivity. You can be as selective as you want in that regard. We're still in a really strong position, three points above 5th with a game in hand is huge with just four games remaining and our fixture list isn't exactly daunting. I've seen nothing in the mentality of the team to suggest we'll collapse now, I think the Villa hiding was an acid test in that regard. In the league at least, we've delt with all of our high pressure games very well to date. Next week, we get an opportunity to put the pressure back on Liverpool in a game that looks a lot like our trip to Goodison Park. Manage the occasion and we should have too much quality for a poor Leeds side. It isn't time for panic stations yet. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The College Dropout Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Even the biggest pessimist in our fanbase would give us a 66% chance of finishing top 4. We could be at match point (or close) by the end of the weekend. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Displayname Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, TRon said: Haven't Liverpool won their last 6 in a row or something like that though? I did fancy them to win all of their remaining games but they do have a game against Villa to come, and that might be the one they come a cropper. They have been scraping by with 1 goal victories without being in control of the games at all. 6 wins in a row gives a very wrong impression of their current form imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanji Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Not even sure why chance probability is a topic at this point. Various modeling saying one thing, that’s good data point. But at the end of the day we have a tremendous record this season overall and our body of work the last 10 should give us good hope that we’re in form and can beat the 2 of the 4 teams we play and draw at least 1 of them. in any case, win Saturday. And keep controlling our own destiny. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) Only thing making me slightly less confident is the pressure. I thought we lost our heads and composure against Arsenal. I know they are very good. Whether that was because of pressure or not is impossible to say I guess. Hope we can handle it. Edited May 9, 2023 by Ikon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PauloGeordio Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Ikon said: Only thing making me slightly less confident is the pressure. I thought we lost our heads and composure against Arsenal. I know they are very good. Whether that was because of pressure or not is impossible to say I guess. Hope we can handle it. Arsenal are very good! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shays Given Tim Flowers Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 We just need to score our chances. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Displayname said: They have been scraping by with 1 goal victories without being in control of the games at all. 6 wins in a row gives a very wrong impression of their current form imo. It doesn't really, plenty have said they could easily win all their remaining games and that's what they are doing. They've got history for it as well, in general when you have a team with so many good players, they might well win them all. The only way to discount them is for us to win our games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ikon Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, PauloGeordio said: Arsenal are very good! Yes they are as I said. But we lost our heads and kept giving silly fouls away over and over again all over the pitch. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanji Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 We were a Murphy post hit from going 1-0 up in 2 mins. We were top of a thigh hit from going up 1-0 again about 6 mins later. then one of the best teams in the league beat us. we need to give our own heads a shake if we can’t get 6-7 points from 12 to play. That’s on us. You rarely get favors when you’re playing with stakes at both ends of the table. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUPERTOON Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 All comes down to Saturday for me (obviously mathematically it doesn’t) I think if we beat Leeds it’s a done deal and we get the required points in the next 2 home games. Lose and I think we will miss out. Saturday is huge. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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