The Europeometer™ (2023/24)

[Aiston]

Top 4 is gone now. The bad transfer window saw to that, we had such a great opportunity for top 4 too with Liverpool and Chelsea being awful and Spurs being so inconsistent.

 

Fulham, Brentford, Liverpool and Brighton are breathing right down our necks as well now due to our 1 win in 6 PL games, draws against the worst performing teams of 2023 (Palace, West Ham, Leeds, Bournemouth).

 

We need to start picking up wins.

 

[ExiledGeordie]

3 minutes ago, Aiston said:

Top 4 is gone now. The bad transfer window saw to that, we had such a great opportunity for top 4 too with Liverpool and Chelsea being awful and Spurs being so inconsistent.

 

Fulham, Brentford, Liverpool and Brighton are breathing right down our necks as well now due to our 1 win in 6 PL games, draws against the worst performing teams of 2023 (Palace, West Ham, Leeds, Bournemouth).

 

We need to start picking up wins.

 

Top four isn’t gone. Granted it’ll be hard but it isn’t gone ffs. 

[The Prophet]

14 minutes ago, Aiston said:

Top 4 is gone now. The bad transfer window saw to that, we had such a great opportunity for top 4 too with Liverpool and Chelsea being awful and Spurs being so inconsistent.

 

Fulham, Brentford, Liverpool and Brighton are breathing right down our necks as well now due to our 1 win in 6 PL games, draws against the worst performing teams of 2023 (Palace, West Ham, Leeds, Bournemouth).

 

We need to start picking up wins.

 

 

Get this man some fresh sheets.

[ExiledGeordie]

15 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Get this man some fresh sheets.

 

??

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Got City, Wolves and Forest after the final before a free weekend. If we can limp 4 from those (should be aiming for 6) then a boot camp and refresh before another decent set of fixtures to put a run together.

 

 

[Hhtoon]

1 hour ago, Aiston said:

Top 4 is gone now. The bad transfer window saw to that, we had such a great opportunity for top 4 too with Liverpool and Chelsea being awful and Spurs being so inconsistent.

 

Fulham, Brentford, Liverpool and Brighton are breathing right down our necks as well now due to our 1 win in 6 PL games, draws against the worst performing teams of 2023 (Palace, West Ham, Leeds, Bournemouth).

 

We need to start picking up wins.

 

 

I'd much rather consistent top 4 than a one off season. Paying over the top in January on whoever was available for short term success doesn't appear to have been part of their long term strategy.

[Dr Jinx]

I’m not blaming anything on a transfer window. The current squad are the ones who set the high standard, our problem is that whatever we did in the time off during the WC was to the detriment of the squad. They look tired and Miggy losing his hot streak has put it back on Wilson, Isak, Maxi and now Gordon who hasn’t pulled up any trees since arriving.

 

Let’s just get this final over with now and hope they can start picking up results. We’ve allowed Spurs and the Dippers to come right back into it so hopefully this season doesn’t just tail off.

[Holloway]

I can't see a rest hampering Eddies high pressing Mags. There"s really not that much wrong barring wayward verging on terrible finishing 

[BonesJones]

As far as I'm concerned if we've made progress I'm happy. We have, so I'm happy.

[Kanji]

The fucking Leeds, Palace, West Ham games are really doing my head in. We created so many chances. 

[The Prophet]

The number of draws pretty much boils down to us not being able to stick the ball in the net.

 

Until Bruno picked up his suspension, the underlying numbers were more or less what they were before the WC. We were creating chances whilst being solid at the back.

 

We've been really streaky in front of goal all season, but a mix of poor decision making, a lack of composure, players losing form and injuries have resulted in us missing numerous good chances v Leeds and Palace, along with games we did win v Fulham and Southampton.

 

Variance and the law of averages suggests that it won't last forever and I'm confident we'll dish out a couple of hidings in the games remaining. Generally speaking though our chance conversation rate will become more consistent with more quality added to the team. 

[Stottie]

Here's a table from the post WC restart, ranked by expected points based on expected goals (chances created and allowed).

The obvious takeaway from it is that we are still making lots of chances. A team that creates chances cannot be massively "leggy".

 

The usual short-term fix for poor finishing is to buy far more expensive players. However, the other team that is vastly underperforming xG in the same chart is Chelsea, who've just bought loads of far more expensive players and have a squad so good that Raheem Sterling gets forgotten. Since we've not underperformed xG by such a large margin all season, there is no fundamental lack of quality in our players and this is simple variance (i.e., form that's likely to improve). xG is based on a calculated average player, not the most clinical finisher in the league.  

 

In more immediate matters, our expected (not actual) points from the last eight or so games is actually better than Spurs and Liverpool. If we play better than them, we should finish above them and for top 4 that's all that matters. 

[Superior Acuña]

5 hours ago, Aiston said:

Top 4 is gone now. The bad transfer window saw to that, we had such a great opportunity for top 4 too with Liverpool and Chelsea being awful and Spurs being so inconsistent.

 

Fulham, Brentford, Liverpool and Brighton are breathing right down our necks as well now due to our 1 win in 6 PL games, draws against the worst performing teams of 2023 (Palace, West Ham, Leeds, Bournemouth).

 

We need to start picking up wins.

 

 

Gone  I'm getting flashbacks of the ridiculousness of last year's relegationometer. 

[GWN]

Are we mathematically safe yet?

[Froggy]

8 hours ago, Kanji said:

The fucking Leeds, Palace, West Ham games are really doing my head in. We created so many chances. 

 

We drew with Leeds and Palace recently as well. In a title race if we didn't.

[GideonShandy]

3 hours ago, GWN said:

Are we mathematically safe yet?

No.

 

Worrying.

[Kid Icarus]

10 hours ago, The Prophet said:

 

Get this man some fresh sheets.

 

 

Steady with the language 

[Cf]

5 hours ago, Stottie said:

Here's a table from the post WC restart, ranked by expected points based on expected goals (chances created and allowed).

The obvious takeaway from it is that we are still making lots of chances. A team that creates chances cannot be massively "leggy".

 

The usual short-term fix for poor finishing is to buy far more expensive players. However, the other team that is vastly underperforming xG in the same chart is Chelsea, who've just bought loads of far more expensive players and have a squad so good that Raheem Sterling gets forgotten. Since we've not underperformed xG by such a large margin all season, there is no fundamental lack of quality in our players and this is simple variance (i.e., form that's likely to improve). xG is based on a calculated average player, not the most clinical finisher in the league.  

 

In more immediate matters, our expected (not actual) points from the last eight or so games is actually better than Spurs and Liverpool. If we play better than them, we should finish above them and for top 4 that's all that matters. 

 

I know not everyone is a fan of xG but variance is a real thing and xG/xPTS are a great piece of the puzzle in determining if anything is wrong. 

 

Against Liverpool despite being down to 10 men it was essentially 2-2 (narrowly I'm their favour) in xG. On another day Almiron and Wilson's chances go in, and they don't score two greatly taken goals from nowhere. 

 

When your xG/xPTS is good and we can see ourselves the performances are good is when you can have confidence what you're doing is working. As much as e.g. Almiron had a purple patch earlier in the season we were still performing well. 

 

Compare to Bruce when our xG was continually awful and we kept getting last minute headers from defenders salvaging points. 

 

In short I'm happy we are doing things the right way. Howe will no doubt continue to tinker and clearly the squad needs improving as time goes on. Continue to play like we are doing though and top 4 is very much still a possibility. 

[ExiledGeordie]

9 hours ago, Kanji said:

The fucking Leeds, Palace, West Ham games are really doing my head in. We created so many chances. 

Yep, we just aren’t clinical enough in front of goal 

[Gallowgate Toon]

There's still a lot to be optimistic about this season and we're definitely not out of the race at all. Even still, finishing top 6 would be a great achievement.

 

It's been a weird period since New Year; we've had a niggly injury to Bruno, illnesses, a concussion, suspensions etc. Couple that with a real smashing of matches with the cups and it's not a total surprise we're a little out of sorts. If we can keep a relatively clean bill of health and have relatively consistent squads each week then I think we can finish really strongly with our sole focus on the league. We've been on a pretty shoddy run but are still within a whisker of 4th.

 

Our performances have been decent, in the main. There's been a definite drop in our level of game control without Bruno but it's only Liverpool that was a real eye-opener. As fans, we just need to focus on us and not start fretting over the table until about April. 

[kocunar]

On 20/02/2023 at 02:58, Stottie said:

Here's a table from the post WC restart, ranked by expected points based on expected goals (chances created and allowed).

The obvious takeaway from it is that we are still making lots of chances. A team that creates chances cannot be massively "leggy".

 

The usual short-term fix for poor finishing is to buy far more expensive players. However, the other team that is vastly underperforming xG in the same chart is Chelsea, who've just bought loads of far more expensive players and have a squad so good that Raheem Sterling gets forgotten. Since we've not underperformed xG by such a large margin all season, there is no fundamental lack of quality in our players and this is simple variance (i.e., form that's likely to improve). xG is based on a calculated average player, not the most clinical finisher in the league.  

 

In more immediate matters, our expected (not actual) points from the last eight or so games is actually better than Spurs and Liverpool. If we play better than them, we should finish above them and for top 4 that's all that matters. 

This more or less aligns with the eye test. I've been saying for a while that I see Brighton as a bigger threat for 4th spot than the Spurs.

[nufcjb]

I know its probably not going go happen now, but imagine man. The Champions League anthem being played under the lights at St James', the Champions League flag in the center circle and Kieran Trippier leading us out.

[The College Dropout]

On 20/02/2023 at 01:58, Stottie said:

Here's a table from the post WC restart, ranked by expected points based on expected goals (chances created and allowed).

The obvious takeaway from it is that we are still making lots of chances. A team that creates chances cannot be massively "leggy".

 

The usual short-term fix for poor finishing is to buy far more expensive players. However, the other team that is vastly underperforming xG in the same chart is Chelsea, who've just bought loads of far more expensive players and have a squad so good that Raheem Sterling gets forgotten. Since we've not underperformed xG by such a large margin all season, there is no fundamental lack of quality in our players and this is simple variance (i.e., form that's likely to improve). xG is based on a calculated average player, not the most clinical finisher in the league.  

 

In more immediate matters, our expected (not actual) points from the last eight or so games is actually better than Spurs and Liverpool. If we play better than them, we should finish above them and for top 4 that's all that matters. 

This is a little misleading and it's not particularly impressive.

 

(1) the last 6 or so prior to Liverpool, we've had relatively easy opponents all in the bottom half of the league and (2) we've only been winning for short periods of time in the last 7 - despite playing pretty well. So we've needed to press and create until the last minute.

 

A team like Spurs has 1 of the best finishers the league has ever seen. And a manager that likes to keep it tight until half-time and shuts up shop once in the lead. They're not going to be Xg champions of the world. But barring injury to Kane, they are going to tick along much like they've been doing or get better.

 

Chelsea are 3rd on the list. Similar to us, rarely in the lead in their games but "winning" a lot of their tight games in terms of Xg.

[GWN]

58 minutes ago, nufcjb said:

I know its probably not going go happen now, but imagine man. The Champions League anthem being played under the lights at St James', the Champions League flag in the center circle and Kieran Trippier leading us out.

 

don’t need to imagine it, I’ve lived it mate . It’s good (no Tripps like)

[frankpingel]

2 minutes ago, GWN said:

 

don’t need to imagine it, I’ve lived it mate . It’s good (no Tripps like)

Not as good as watching him lift a cup (on Sunday if you please).