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The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

615 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Couple of nice little scheduling breaks for us coming up.

 

Fulham this weekend we'll have had two days extra rest and prep going onto it and then Saturday week we'll be going to Palace with a full week to get ready while they'll have had Man U the Wednesday before.

 

Such a huge opportunity coming up with Man U and Liverpool entering tough runs of fixtures while we have four very winnable games. Obviously there are no easy fixtures but 9 or 10 points from our next four fixtures is very doable and would likely have us in a very nice spot with no European football (and only one potential cup game... which we'd manage to pay some attention to I'm sure) to distract in the run-in.

 

Feels fucking nostalgic being excited about the future, haven't been this excited since the peak Bobby years.

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And just to add to that, we won't be too heavily disadvantaged in terms of prep time for the West Ham game on February 4th.

 

Our second leg semi will be on the Tuesday before while West Ham are the Monday night game in the FA Cup 4th round so only an extra 24 hours for them.

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If (and it's a big if) we win tomorrow, who would we want to win in either of the following games:

 

Man City Vs Man United 

Tottenham Vs Arsenal

 

If Man United and Tottenham win, we'll only be a point behind Man City, and six behind Arsenal, but will still be level on points with Man United and only 2 points ahead of Tottenham.

 

If Man City and Arsenal win, the gap between us and Man United goes to three points, and five points to Spurs, but we'd not have gained any ground on the two above us.

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Here is the Premier League form table on Saturday morning, which covers the past six matches for all teams, following Aston Villa’s 2-1 win over Leeds last night

 

Premier-League-Form-Table-01-14-2023.thumb.webp.6c993b321aeb8ff96df9450c9d724cf7.webp

 

 

As you can see, Newcastle United dropping to third in this new updated Premier League form table.

Arsenal at the top with 16 points from a possible 18, denied a perfect 18 due to Newcastle’s draw at The Emirates.

Man Utd second with 15 points, Newcastle United 14 points and then Aston Villa and Man City both with 13.

 

Fulham are eighth in this Premier League form table, having taken 12 points.

After losing to Man City and Man Utd, Marco Silva’s side winning their last four PL matches, including 2-1 against Chelsea on Thursday night. The Fulham boss not happy at having to play Newcastle only 64 hours later…

 

 

Edited by prefabtoon

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Might be helpful. Next few games...

 

Man Utd Vs

Palace

Arsenal

Palace

 

Arsenal Vs 

Spurs

Man Utd

Everton

 

Spurs Vs 

Arsenal

City

Fulham

 

City Vs

Spurs

Wolves

Spurs

 

Liverpool and Chelsea are 9th and 10th and they play each other next ...

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32 points off remaining 19 games now to get to 70 points. We have 38 off the first 19 games, with almost all remaining hard fixtures at SJP. 

 

32 points is 9 wins 5 draws and 4 defeats. Or 8 wins 8 draws and 3 defeats.

 

With Liverpool struggling, 70 probably does it. Tottenham only got 71 last year.

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Just now, STM said:

Palace are all over the place and we are away from home (which I think we need). Couldn't be a better fixture.

 

They've also got Man U on Wednesday so a short turnaround.

 

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Sod it....based on reaching 72 points (71.5 points is the average to finish 4th). Using current league position to determine difficulty of fixture:

 

34 points needed. Let's say 19 points (6 wins & 1 draw) at home & 15 points (4 wins and 3 draws) away.

 

Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point needed

West Ham (H) - 3 points required 

Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required

Liverpool (H) - 3 points required

Brighton (H) - 3 points required

Man City (A) - 0 points required

Wolves (H) - 3 points required

Nottingham Forest (A) - 1 point required

Manchester United (H) - 0 points required 

Brentford (A) - 0 points required

Aston Villa (A) - 1 point required

Spurs (H) - 1 point required

Everton (A) - 3 points required

Southampton (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (H) - 0 points required

Leeds (A) - 3 points required

Leicester (H) - 3 points required

Chelsea (A) - 0 points required

West Ham (A) - 3 points required

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The key for us will be not drawing too many games, especially at home. It's great that we're so hard to beat of course but at the end of the day a win and a loss is generally going to better than two draws (possible exception being when one is against a direct league rival)

 

Today felt possibly like a bit of a turning point?

 

Game looked for all the world like another like the Palace, Bournemouth or Leeds games. Frustrating home games that were just two points dropped. But finally we actually pulled one out of the bag. Helped that we were able to make such positive changes from the bench, of course.

 

Still think it's Spurs and Liverpool that we're really focused on. Finish ahead of both of them and we'll get top four. Both have to come to SJP too.

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I still think injuries like the one to Bruno will happen and we will sink back a bit to 5th or 6th which will be a little disappointing but shouldn't be really, I think that would have been as much as hoped for at start. Man U are good again and if they sustain that should be there or there abouts, Spurs will improve, though will need to improve a lot. Think Liverpool and Chelsea ought both to be out of it really too, 10 points when we aren't dropping many should be hard to overcome, but yes would be nice to stuff them on the pitch

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