The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[Izakaya]

Nah not happening. 

[Rich]

1 minute ago, Izakaya said:

Nah not happening. 

 

Howay, man. It was shite today but we've still gained a point on Spurs (again, somehow), and matched Brighton/Chelsea's results.

 

Man Utd have to go to Leeds and get something, Liverpool have the Merseyside derby with Everton's tails up.

 

It's not like anyone in the mix is putting in the performances/results that makes you certain they'll finish above us. Even Arsenal are dropping points now.

[Displayname]

Think we might be getting top 4 with record breaking low amount of points. All the rest of our challengers looks shitty aswell.

[Kid Icarus]

You hope that this is a lull rather than the start of worse form. If this is our lull and we're still gaining on Spurs and Brighton with games in hand, amazing.

[TRon]

8 minutes ago, Rich said:

 

Howay, man. It was shite today but we've still gained a point on Spurs (again, somehow), and matched Brighton/Chelsea's results.

 

Man Utd have to go to Leeds and get something, Liverpool have the Merseyside derby with Everton's tails up.

 

It's not like anyone in the mix is putting in the performances/results that makes you certain they'll finish above us. Even Arsenal are dropping points now.

 

Feels like those teams have more quality players to fall back on when it comes to rotation though. It's a bit worrying for me that as soon as Bruno is out of the picture our football suddenly starts dropping levels to an alarming degree. Some players look like they feel out of their depth when he's not there conducting.

[Away Toon]

I feel we could finish anywhere between 4th and 10th, 4th being very unlikely but as Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool are so shit it's just about possible despite the fact that we are absolutely cooked as a team. As low as 10th unlikely but possible, we are certainly playing like a mid table team.

[SUPERTOON]

If we don’t get top 4, does anyone think it would be beneficial for us to miss out on Europe altogether? Even with a summer transfer window I can’t see us having the squad depth to handle the Thursday night to Sunday afternoon turnaround.

[SteV]

1 hour ago, Rich said:

 

Howay, man. It was shite today but we've still gained a point on Spurs (again, somehow), and matched Brighton/Chelsea's results.

 

Man Utd have to go to Leeds and get something, Liverpool have the Merseyside derby with Everton's tails up.

[astraguy]

No chance of 4th,spurs will catch us but we will be in Europe and thats an achievement 

[Shak]

"No chance of 4th"

 

Half of the forum had us at a 10 on the Relegationometer this time last year.

[HaydnNUFC]

10 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

If we don’t get top 4, does anyone think it would be beneficial for us to miss out on Europe altogether? Even with a summer transfer window I can’t see us having the squad depth to handle the Thursday night to Sunday afternoon turnaround.

 

Alan Pardew

 

Spoiler

 Always want European football regardless personally. We'll recruit in the summer and tbh, we're almost certain to be playing European football of some description next season. Man Utd will likely finish top 4, giving us the Conference League spot from the League Cup. Either way even with our form the way it is atm, I can't see us collapsing to the point where we drop out of the top 6/7.

 

 

Edited February 11, 2023 by HaydnNUFC

[Jaqen]

We are currently top 4 with a game in hand over 5th. To suggest there's 'no chance' is just daft, like Spurs just got hammered 4-1 by one of the worst sides in the league. 

[gbandit]

Aye, there’s definitely a chance, I just think with our style of play and our squad limitations I’d be surprised if we can finish the season incredibly strongly

[Paullow]

I've always maintained I'd be happy with 6th, and won't personally feel as though we let a massive opportunity slip. With the EFL opponent being Man Utd, 6th should definitely secure some form of Europe even if we were to lose the final. We basically have a squad of 14 to 15 and with a couple of injuries / suspension, basically nothing to bring on.

 

In an ideal world the likes of Dummett, Fraser, Ritchie, Lascelles etc. (and in time Murphy) would all be away, and the likes of Burn, Longstaff, Willock, possibly Almiron would replace them on the bench and we'd have 4 or 5 quality first team additions, in line with a lot of our top 6 rivals, but that can't happen overnight, and we've done unbelievable to get to where we were.

 

Expecting 5th or 6th, happy with that, but over the moon if we can keep our current position.

[wormy]

There's obviously still a chance, even if I don't personally think we'll make it considering we've been punching above our weight.

 

A lot will hinge on whether teams catch up/overtake us next weekend imo. Last match of Bruno's suspension, no major expectation of points with it being Liverpool. Hopefully with him refreshed and available to run the show post-League Cup we see a return to form.

 

Obviously we don't want to be going in to next season relying so much on one player but that's where we're at this year.

[Kaizero]

I think we'll get 4th. The main competitors all are having shit seasons and on paper we're better than the other ones in the mix. Only real worry at this stage is Tottenham, but they blow hot and cold.

 

10 points on Chelsea with 48 points left to play for. Chelsea will need to close the season extremely strong/we have to finish extremely shit to mess up that gap. Both obviously possible scenarios, but from a purely statistical standpoint it's unlikely.

 

If Liverpool win both games in hand, we have a 6 point gap. That is more scary and our match against them might be the deciding point. Lose it and I think it's a high likelyhood of them closing the gap, win it and I don't think they will. Get a draw and it'll be tight but think we'll manage to hold on.

 

Tottenham, as said,  blow hot and cold. I don't think they'll finish strongly, but then again there's no guarantee we will either.

 

538 says we have 44% likelyhood of qualifying, Tottenham 29%, Liverpool 20% and Chelsea 5%. I feel those are appropriate chances looking at the table and fixture list. My personal opinion and gut feeling says 7 out of 10 times we'd qualify based on the current standings.

[elbee909]

All the top end teams seem to be dropping points at the moment.

[Yorkie]

I've dropped from feeling convinced to feeling uncertain. None of our immediate competitors are making a compelling case but we've failed to capitalise on favourable fixtures, meanwhile there's much harder tests to come. 

 

I don't think we'll beat Liverpool because they're arseholes and destined to inflict misery on us despite their form. If we lose, I think we'll lose our grip and emphasise our fallibility. But if we avoid defeat - even if it's another draw - it's like, "fuck you, you gotta beat us if you're gonna finish above us." It might give us a timely renewal of belief. 

 

Tough to call atm. My instinct is that we'll find a second wind and get it done. 

[TheDimpleboy]

Be owa the moon with 8th me.

 

Genuinely cannot comprehend the mindset of people that are gutted at the thought of us not finishing top 4. Wembley in two weeks. We don't demand a team that wins, just a club that tries. Etc etc.

[Ronaldo]

I’ve got to be honest, I just don’t see it. We simply don’t have enough goals in the team, and up front with Isak still acclimatising and Wilson perennially injured or carrying a knock, we are woefully short. I mean woefully. We will need the final third of the season to be very special to get to the points required. Sorry to be negative.

[AJ9]

Don’t think we will get in the top 4. There’s a lot to learn from this season so far and we will keep building. The lack of squad depth is a killer.

[Ronaldo]

6 minutes ago, TheDimpleboy said:

Be owa the moon with 8th me.

 

Genuinely cannot comprehend the mindset of people that are gutted at the thought of us not finishing top 4. Wembley in two weeks. We don't demand a team that wins, just a club that tries. Etc etc.

Thing is, if I was Sven Botman or Bruno and at a club ‘owa the moon’ to finish 8th given the utter shit club likely to finish 5th, 6th or 7th in that scenario, I’d probably be on the phone to my agent the Monday after the final fixture. We won’t keep players with that level of ambition unless we’re fulfilling it or genuinely look like doing so.
 

 

[Cf]

I think my main problem is that on paper we had what a lot of us will consider to be our strongest attacking players on today. But they've just not played together really and there were plenty of examples today where they weren't on the same wavelength. 

 

Both an advantage of playing the same team week on week and a disadvantage because it meant others were being frozen out and those relationships weren't being built. 

[Kid Icarus]

I can definitely see where the goals are coming from. Until today our recent lack of goals was mostly from poor finishing. There's no reason we can't get back to creating hatfuls of chances and go the next step and finish them.

[Cf]

1 minute ago, Ronaldo said:

Thing is, if I was Sven Botman or Bruno and at a club ‘owa the moon’ to finish 8th given the utter shit club likely to finish 5th, 6th or 7th in that scenario, I’d probably be on the phone to my agent the Monday after the final fixture. We won’t keep players with that level of ambition unless we’re fulfilling it or genuinely look like doing so.
 

 

 

It's our first season after being bottom at Christmas. I think it's clear the club wants to go places. A transition season of 7th/8th is hardly the end of the world.