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Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle United: 21/01/23 @ 5:30pm - Live on Sky


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https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12788153/premier-league-predictions-jones-knows-thinks-everton-can-send-david-moyes-packing-as-west-ham-manager

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Newcastle are heading towards the Champions League. It's no fluke either when you look at their underlying data that assesses the dirtier side of the game, most notably defending and being a threat from set pieces.

They are the best in the Premier League at both.

 

Newcastle have now kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League games, conceding just two goals. And boy are they a threat from set pieces. Eddie Howe's side have fired 106 shots from set piece situations to a backdrop of an expected goals figure of 10.09 - the best returns of any team across both metrics. It's therefore a huge underperformance to have only merited six goals from such situations this season - six teams have scored more.

I'd side with them finding a way past Crystal Palace, who are yet to win against a current top half team this season, in a low scoring clash. Those looking for a betting angle in should invest in Dan Burn's shots and goals odds on offer. Palace have shipped the most expected goals from set pieces of any team in the Premier League this season (8.08) so have been very fortunate to conceded just four goals.

 

Also, in the reverse meeting between these two at St James' Park, Newcastle created a whopping 2.08 expected goals from set pieces in that 0-0. The most any team has created this season in a single game and only bettered by Manchester City's haul of 2.56 against Norwich when assessing all Premier League games since the start of last season.

 

Burn had a shot in just 11 minutes on the pitch in that clash with Palace and managed a shot in the 1-0 win for the Toon over Patrick Vieira's team in April. He goes up for every set piece with his average touches in the opposition box bringing in a healthy return of 1.43 per-90 over a 36-game sample size with his shots per-90 data coming in at 0.6.

 

This all equates to the 13/8 with Sky Bet available on him having one or more shots being very appealing. He is 40/1 with Sky Bet to score first, too - something that landed in Newcastle's Carabao Cup win over Leicester where he actually scored from open play with a rampaging run from left-back.

 

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

 

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9 minutes ago, nufc123 said:

As mentioned early goal will be key. Isak, Wilson, Wilock, Almiron, Maximin will kill the match if they get space early on. Palace scores first and it will be a nightmare of a game.

Totally agree 👍🏻

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1 minute ago, Skeletor said:

It is weird because every Newcastle team I've ever known had a reputation for being unable to defend. Now we just literally don't concede goals.

I’m not at the stage where I can actually watch stoppage time. 

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1 hour ago, Skeletor said:

It is weird because every Newcastle team I've ever known had a reputation for being unable to defend. Now we just literally don't concede goals.

 

Was saying the same thing to a lad at work this week. Hell, it was a running joke that Darren Peacock was always there to pick the ball out the back of the net when the opposition scored.

 

Remember when they all said Eddie didn't know how to defend? Ha, shut them the fuck up, didn't he?

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