Guest Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 10. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sempuki Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 10. Given up? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. It's going to be hilarious when this board is arguing about Colo's WAR and Colback's VORP. That day is coming. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketsbaia Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. http://i.imgur.com/vUz30nl.jpg Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
afar Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I still think our fate lies in what we do business wise before the window "slams shut". Get that striker (that puts the in the back of the net) and a winger (you are actually going to give a chance to and play) them we'll be alright, we still have enough quality to get out of this mess without those new recruits but in order to do that the form and attitude shown in the last couple of games needs to carry on for a sustained period, that's been our problem a lot this season, in patches we've looked good but not been consistent enough. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teasy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some stats to ridicule/ignore... We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks. We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most). We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league. Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players). We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134. 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham. We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35). And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league. * xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals Hold on, Villa have a current goal difference of -20, Sunderland -18 while our current goal difference is -15. Yet they reckon our goal difference will improve to -13 but still be the worst in the league? Great example of why you shouldn't extrapolate from stats like these Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole_Toonfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With an expected goal difference of -13.1, I shudder. It's going to be hilarious when this board is arguing about Colo's WAR and Colback's VORP. That day is coming. I wanna know Sissoko's PER tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some stats to ridicule/ignore... We are in the top 3 in the league for shots inside the box in the last four gameweeks. We have allowed the second most shots from inside the box in the last four gameweeks (Leicester the most). We have 68 shots from counter attacking moves, 9th most in the league. Conversely, we only have 15 shots from established possession in the opposition's half, which is tied for second fewest with West Ham. Crystal Palace and Leicester have the fewest with 11, which shows that Pardew is still a c*** but you can be successful this way (with a couple incredibly in-form players). We've conceded the most shots (355) and the second most shots on target (116). Only Sunderland is worse with 134. 141 of those shots have come from the "danger" zone, which is basically the middle of the penalty area (from goal line to 18 yard line and the width of six yard box). That's second worst in the league behind West Ham. We have the worst differential between shots taken and shots allowed (-132) and the second worst for on target (-35). And, finally, our expected goal difference (xGD*) is -13.1, the worst in the league. * xGD combines expected goals and expected goals conceded, which take into account shot type, assist type, shot location, speed of attack and some other things. Here's a full explanation: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals Hold on, Villa have a current goal difference of -20, Sunderland -18 while our current goal difference is -15. Yet they reckon our goal difference will improve to 13 but still be the worst in the league? Great example of why you shouldn't extrapolate from stats like these They aren't expecting it to improve. It could be more indicative of future performance, however, it doesn't weight recent performance more heavily. This is a projection of where it should be based on the data. Obviously things happen in football matches and all sports that are unexpected and one or two games in a sample size of 20 can skew the data pretty badly. Also, this is a pretty new stat that is still being worked on year by year so it's by no means perfect. That said, it has us with the worst expected goal difference when in reality we are 3rd worst. Sunderland and Villa are in 19th and 18 and this metric has Arsenal, City, and Spurs as the top 3. Where it differs greatly is having Chelsea 4th with a +7.6 and Leicester 7th at +3.4. Also, Palace 17th with -10.1. None of these are that surprising though - Chelsea have underachieved, Leicester are a counter attacking side that have overachieved, and Pardew's teams routinely have a GD difference that's not indicative of their place in the table. Anyway, I hesitated to even post that stat as I knew everyone would ignore the others some of which are pretty interesting but as more and more work is done to improve football statistics metrics like this will become commonplace and fairly reliable indicators of future performance. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varadi Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Watford game is huge, another good performance with 3 points and we can actually start looking upwards, another dire defeat and we'll be right in it until the end imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Nowt to worry about, eh? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robster Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think a few people maybe jumped the gun last week Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Like I said, I'm still at a 7. A half decent win at home, couple of signings and everyone's thinks its job done. We can't string a couple of wins together. It's one step forward and a step backwards. Dropping points to other relegation candidates is not a good sign. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varadi Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Rest of the transfer window dictates our fate I reckon, if we don't get a goalscorer in we're probably going down. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Begbie Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 our players can't head the ball... lol Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordie Ahmed Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Unless we sign a striker, defender and manager we are going down Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Bailey Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Unless we sign a striker, defender and manager we are going down Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
matta Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 It Will be hard now. Have to win half of the games left soon. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minhosa Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Still think we'll go. Another two points gained on us by those below us. And today's result pretty much saves Watford who we could have dragged into the mix. 9 for me. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shearergol Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 10 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp40 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ashleys just a ridiculous cunt. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sempuki Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 15 games to go and it ain't looking good. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chopey Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This is a massive loss not looking God now Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenny Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Dunno if we will or won't drop but it's looking like a coin toss. We won't string any results together that will see us have any form of breathing space though that's for sure. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
54 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Still at 3, we have enough to get out of it, we'll probably be In and around it all season, but well get out of it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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