Relegationometer

[Holloway]

The away games in the Championship are mint man, get in touch with your inner Charver, new chants and that, like

[Stottie]

I could easily see Sunderland doing something like win 1, draw 2 lose 2. They don't win many at all. I know we don't either but we've got the advantage of playing probably the two worst teams in 2016.

 

Four of Sunderland's seven wins came with a goal or an assist from a man now in prison. He got them a draw at Anfield too.

[afar]

Did the predictor thing yet again,this time I was trying to be as optimistic with a sense of realism as I could. Having watch them today, something clear is that they have a strong defence, they aren't gonna lose many and in Defoe they will always have a goal threat.

 

I think they will go the remainder of the season unbeaten, 1 win and 3 draws. That puts them on 37 points. I had Norwich and ourselves on 36, we have to win all three I'm afraid and lets face it that's not going to happen.

 

The win I had for the Mackems was Everton at home, if Everton decide to show up, which is unlikely they may scrape a point from that, I guess, Chelsea could also steal the 3 points, having them only take a point at both Watford and Stoke is optimistic though, looking at the mental state of both those teams right now.

 

This is torture, for the first time in a long time we can see light at the end of the dark long tunnel with Rafa here but that'll be put out if we don't somehow get out of this mess and it'll be back to employing idiots like Pardew, McLaren and Carver and giving them too much time to prove they are inept.

[mrmojorisin75]

Did the predictor thing yet again,this time I was trying to be as optimistic with a sense of realism as I could. Having watch them today, something clear is that they have a strong defence, they aren't gonna lose many and in Defoe they will always have a goal threat.

 

I think they will go the remainder of the season unbeaten, 1 win and 3 draws. That puts them on 37 points. I had Norwich and ourselves on 36, we have to win all three I'm afraid and lets face it that's not going to happen.

 

The win I had for the Mackems was Everton at home, if Everton decide to show up, which is unlikely they may scrape a point from that, I guess, Chelsea could also steal the 3 points, having them only take a point at both Watford and Stoke is optimistic though, looking at the mental state of both those teams right now.

 

This is torture, for the first time in a long time we can see light at the end of the dark long tunnel with Rafa here but that'll be put out if we don't somehow get out of this mess and it'll be back to employing idiots like Pardew, McLaren and Carver and giving them too much time to prove they are inept.

Aye that's how I see the mackems atm, not conceding many and probably not losing another game (maybe one) albeit not winning that many either. It'll be tiiiiiight if we do our part and win the next two.

[Lush Vlad]

Still a 9. 

 

I think we'll finish above Norwich and I fancy us to win the next two.  I just don't see us finishing above sunderland. 

[St1pe]

Still a 9. 

 

I think we'll finish above Norwich and I fancy us to win the next two.  I just don't see us finishing above sunderland.

 

This.

 

Best case scenario I could see us winning the next two but Sunderland have looked solid and played with high intensity for weeks now. I'm also covering old ground here but Everton, Stoke and Watford have completely given up. Can anyone really see them not getting 5 points at least from that?

[Magpie]

Still a 9. 

 

I think we'll finish above Norwich and I fancy us to win the next two.  I just don't see us finishing above sunderland.

 

This.

 

Best case scenario I could see us winning the next two but Sunderland have looked solid and played with high intensity for weeks now. I'm also covering old ground here but Everton, Stoke and Watford have completely given up. Can anyone really see them not getting 5 points at least from that?

 

So a ten then?

 

No point going nine if you think we're not going to finish above them. We need to win all three and I just can't see that happening.

 

Hoping for Forest away the Friday night of the first weekend of the season.

[Shearergol]

Given how the season has gone so far, the most "likely" scenario is that neither Norwich, Sunderland or ourselves win another game (hence why we're in the position we're in). However, end of season never really happens like that so it's anyone's guess.

 

I think it's us and Norwich going though, purely based on the fact that it would piss us off the most, and that's usually what happens.

[Lush Vlad]

Still a 9. 

 

I think we'll finish above Norwich and I fancy us to win the next two.  I just don't see us finishing above sunderland.

 

This.

 

Best case scenario I could see us winning the next two but Sunderland have looked solid and played with high intensity for weeks now. I'm also covering old ground here but Everton, Stoke and Watford have completely given up. Can anyone really see them not getting 5 points at least from that?

 

So a ten then?

 

No point going nine if you think we're not going to finish above them. We need to win all three and I just can't see that happening.

 

Hoping for Forest away the Friday night of the first weekend of the season.

 

f***ing hell, not this again  People get far too upset about the f***ing RELEGATIONMETER   

 

I do not 100% think we are gone and I don't think we're dead and buried, like I did a while back.  I think with the way we have been playing of late.  There is every chance of us getting 6 points from the next 3.  Possibly more, depending on what Spurs have to play for. 

 

I did the predictor thingy and had us going down on goal dif, with sunderland drawing with Watford and Everton, losing to Chelsea and beating Stoke. 

 

Saying "I just don't see us finishing above sunderland."  Is not me saying, we are 100% not going to finish above them.  I just don't think it is very likely.  If they win two more games.  Then at the very least, we're going to need to beat Spurs 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Beat Palace 6 nil, Villa 2 nil and Spurs 1 nil, Palace lose their remaining 3 games and we send the buggers down!

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

There will be countless posts examining the why's and wherefore's of all of the games, so here's another :-

 

Spurs 68 pts 4 games to play

City    64 pts 3 games to play - max points - 73

Arse  64 pts 3 games to play - max points - 73

 

So by my reckoning if Spurs get 2 wins (certain) or 1 wins and 2 draws (have a better goal difference) from :-

 

West Brom - H

Cheslea - A

Southampton - H

 

Then in theory there should be no reason for them to go at it to us, if we were in the situation of having to Win / Draw to stay up.

 

[Disco]

Was thinking last night if Spurs are out of it only Vorm, Trippier, Erikson, Bentaleb, Mason, Erikson, Lamela, Son & N'Jie won't probably be going to the Euros thereafter. Still get beat like.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

I think we'll go down because Everton and Watford have stopped playing sadly.

[mrmojorisin75]

Someone else said it I think but for some reason I feel it would be better if Spurs have something to play for when we meet them. My fear would be how we approach the game in that scenario, i.e. not turn up ourselves because the players think Spurs will be on the beach.

[High Five o]

We need to win all 3 as simple as that i guess.

 

Next weekend will be fucking nerve wrecking. Sunderland can not win that match really.

[Beren]

Stoke have been humped three weeks on the bounce. Got to restore some pride next week at home, you'd hope.

[Elma]

Sunderland failing to win against Stoke, coupled with a win for use against Palace, would set things up nicely. Firstly, it would take us out of the bottom three for a few hours, and possibly longer with Norwich away at Arsenal. Secondly, I really do think Sunderland will struggle to beat Chelsea the week after, and another win for us at Villa (easier said than done I know) would then heap pressure on them going into the final week.

 

For all Sunderland's devensive organisation and rigidity, they have actually failed to score in their last three home games. Although two of them were against Leicester and Arsenal, they couldn't breakdown West Brom either. Defoe is their main source of goals, and of his 13 in the league this season only 3 have come at home - 2 against Villa and 1 against Swansea. He is far better when they play on the break and he can run in behind. In short, they have a problem with balance.

 

All ifs and buts, but I would be surprised if Sunderland were to win both home games - Chelsea have picked up a bit and even Everton isn't easy - they typicaly find that one a difficult fixture for some reason. As I say, fail to beat Stoke and we can push the momentum towards us with a win against Palace. All results (except Sunderland's point) went for us at the weekend. Leicester maintained their gap, and both Norwich and Sunderland's last two opponents are now out of the cup. Although they've nothing to play for, it would have been worse had they also been resting players ahead of a cup final, whilst those chosen may not have been throwing themselves into tackles. Instead, it's Palace in that position ahead of our game on Saturday.

 

If we win all three, I would be stunned if we dropped. If we win the next two, it will come down to how motivated Spurs are in game 38. If we don't win the next two to take it to the last game, frankly we don't deserve to stay up.

 

And I'm a pessimist....

[timeEd32]

[The College Dropout]

Good post.

 

Defoe's extremely isolated and never a lone striker anyway. Good chance they struggle for goals but they won't need many imo.

 

Stoke's a massive game. Win and they stay up imo. Draw and it begins to feel like relegation for them if we can win.

 

They've got so many good opportunities to get points fthat I have them as heavy faves.

[last_monetarist]

Fear it's nailed on now. Sunderland's point against Arsenal and their remaining fixtures put them firmly in the box seat. Newcastle would have to win 3 on the trot to actually have a reasonable chance of staying up.

[joeyt]

Fear it's nailed on now. Sunderland's point against Arsenal and their remaining fixtures put them firmly in the box seat. Newcastle would have to win 3 on the trot to actually have a reasonable chance of staying up.

 

If we win 3 on the trot we're staying up like, no doubt about it to me. Certainly more than 'reasonable chance'

[Elma]

Good post.

 

Defoe's extremely isolated and never a lone striker anyway. Good chance they struggle for goals but they won't need many imo.

 

Stoke's a massive game. Win and they stay up imo. Draw and it begins to feel like relegation for them if we can win.

 

They've got so many good opportunities to get points fthat I have them as heavy faves.

 

Completely agree. This is the big one this weekend. This is where the tide has to turn if we're going to do it. We either fail to win, or they do win, and it will look very bleak. A point for them this week is fine. Coupled with a defeat for Norwich and a win for us against Palace, it would lift us out of the bottom three and give us a huge boost going into the final two games, especially as I think Sunderland will struggle to take more than a point against Chelsea.

 

I'm most worried about our goal difference to be honest.

[The College Dropout]

I'm counting that as a point for Sunderland. That won't change. 

 

 

If we had Sunderlandd fixtures I would be disappointed with 7 points given the opposition. That's realistic.  Anything less and they deserve to go down. 

 

That means we'll need to win our last 3 games.  Don't think 36 will be good enough this year. I hope it is as that's our most realistic total. 

[Optimistic Nut]

We've just got to win our two games and not even worry about those two anymore. We could win those two and still be down by the Spurs game if one/both of these win there next 3, or we could go into it already safe. Not got a clue how their 3 games will go I'm just stopping thinking about it.

[Mattoon]

Aye it's not worth agonising over, it's clearly out of our hands, we just need to go out and get the three points we should against Palace and Villa and see how it pans out.