Relegationometer

[loki679]

5

 

I assume that's Irish for '10'

0 you mean?

 

I just think we have a very good defence compared to most bad teams. Obviously struggle for goals mind

 

Aye, I agree our defence is decent (although how much of that was down to Rafa remains to be seen) but just going back through previous seasons just a decent defence isn't usually enough to save you if your attack is toothless.  If you're in the bottom 3 for goals scored it's about a 60% chance of relegation (about 65% if you're bottom three for goals conceded).

 

Considering our current squad managed a whopping 16 goals between them (14 if Hayden and Longstaff leave), it's not looking great without significant investment.

 

2018/19 we had the seventh best defence in the league and the 16th best attack.  Our two top scorers from that 16th best attack have left and the tactician generally credited with getting us organised and hard to beat has left.

 

I reckon we're bollixed personally.

[Mattoon]

Can't see anything but a slow and painful relegation for this lot, toothless up front and our expert defensive organiser has left. We won't be half as effective in defence and less than that in attack without Perez and Rondon.

[geordiedean]

Can't see anything but a slow and painful relegation for this lot, toothless up front and our expert defensive organiser has left. We won't be half as effective in defence and less than that in attack without Perez and Rondon.

 

Dwight Gayle and Joselu upfront wont get 10 goals between them

[morla84]

Dont even think there'll be flames, we'll probably just vanish

[Mike]

Dont even think there'll be flames, we'll probably just vanish

 

Think we'll get beaten senseless 32-34 times.

[Yorkie]

If we hang onto our goalie/defenders we'll be in the bottom six dogfight (as opposed to being adrift). Plus, at some point, we are going to sign some players who'll probably be of Premier League standard.

[Bimpy474]

Unless we sign two decent forwards we'll struggle, without them we're 20th and miles behind everyone else.

 

So basically we're fucked.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Even with signings they’re fucked, Rafa made all our players look about 100% better. Even the defence could quite easily fall apart.

[Yorkie]

Most minging sentence of the year: it's wishful thinking to suggest we're going to finish rock bottom.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Most minging sentence of the year: it's wishful thinking to suggest we're going to finish rock bottom.

 

Maybe, don’t really care either way. Depends on how bad the promoted teams are, but again, will be trying not to follow it.

 

They could quite easily get 15 points less than last season. Which is really bad.

[toontownman]

Last season was a struggle and we are likely to lose at least 5 of our best players.

 

Would be a miracle if we survived. We need at least 6 high quality players and another couple more quality first team players and a manager that can bring the players together.

 

That's presuming we don't lose anyone else. Hayden, longstaff, Schar, Lejune, Fernandes, Dubravka, shelvey could all need replacing.

 

Saivet and colback are going to get lots of minutes aren't they.

 

[BlufPurdi]

BlufPurdi[/member] - do you still like to record poll results before we change it?

 

I don't even remember doing this.

[geordiedean]

Weve lost 23 out of our 42 goals last season so unless we can replace that we are absolutely fucked

 

45 points we finished on and many of them points were earned by single goal victories we could easily only accrue 15 to 25 points next season

[BlueStar]

BlufPurdi[/member] - do you still like to record poll results before we change it?

 

I don't even remember doing this.

 

Oh, who was it - remember replacing a poll and an admin asking where I'd saved the results of the last one.

 

Ahhh, was a general chat thing https://www.newcastle-online.org/forum/index.php?topic=97070.msg6343320#msg6343320

[Ketsbaia]

As long as no-one else leaves, the squad is still alright until we reach the strikers. But if the takeover doesn't happen we're deep in the relegation battle, absolutely.

[Robster]

Fewer points than Derby, imo.

100% nailed on.

What's the record for fewest goals scored ?

Don't look it up, we'll all know it in May.

It's 20. That feels like a LOT.

It is. We aren't beating that

[loki679]

As long as no-one else leaves, the squad is still alright until we reach the strikers. But if the takeover doesn't happen we're deep in the relegation battle, absolutely.

 

[toon25]

We’re fucked in all places (esp with regards to strength in depth) with the exception of centre back and goalkeeper. Even then, it was Rafa that was able to get the most out of the players we’ve got there. The only ones with genuine quality are Schar and Lejeune.

[nufcjb]

Can we have a 100+ option please? 10 isn't big enough for me like

[samptime29]

We're fucked with no Rafa, Rondon or Perez.

 

If we'd kept all three, improved full back positions, would've been confident of 10th-12th solid season.

[Tiotes Witch Doctor]

Even with Rafa, and with Perez, Rondon and the players playing his way to grind out the wins we still looked vulnerable and very poor at times.

 

Now take Rafa and his gameplan, discpline and infleunce away, take away our two top scorers, add in Redfearn and a toxic atmosphere and Jack Colback and Joselu, and we could be relegated on record points.

 

Not to mention we'll probably be losing some of our best players from last season in Hayden, probably Schar and Dubravka if they have any sense.

 

Grim.

 

20th.

[The Prophet]

There's so much up in the air, its impossible to say at this stage. A disruptive pre-season is hardly an ideal start though.

[Fitzgerald]

You just know the likes of, Elliot, Lazaar, Clark, colback, Aarons, Saivet, Murphy, Joselu and Gayle will all be lined up to feature next year.

 

So grim. They are championship level at best and some of them not even that. We should have moved on from them ages ago yet we are going back to players who weren't good enough in the PL 2/3 years ago. Comical

[Tiotes Witch Doctor]

Could be another McClaren style season without Rafa coming in at the end to give us hope

[loki679]

There's so much up in the air, its impossible to say at this stage. A disruptive pre-season is hardly an ideal start though.

 

Do we have any other kind of preseason? Even when we were fairly stable on the management side we still managed to have players that couldn't travel because of unpaid dental bills and others stranded in far off climes. We're a shambles but we're a consistent shambles.