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Yorkie

by Yorkie
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HaydnNUFC

HaydnNUFC

Posted
Posted (edited)

Trippier would be a brilliant signing, thought when rumours first were going round it was a non starter. Would love Lingard too but always felt he'd go to West Ham if they went in for him. Kamara, 2 CBs, a striker and if we can't get Lingard then a winger/attacking mid next please.

 

 

Edited by HaydnNUFC

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Away Toon

Away Toon

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Rafalove said:

Been linked with Matrial. Wasn’t sure initially when he was first linked but he can play as a striker can’t he? Could be useful having personal that can play several positions. We need a lot of players but bringing in too many could also upset the team chemistry and be difficult to integrate. Martial would be someone who could play on the wing but also provide cover for Wilson if or when he gets injured

team chemistry, what the fuck are you talking about?

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GWN

GWN

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Beth said:

Lets be perfectly honest, assuming we lose the next two games before Jan we would probably need 26-28 points from the last 18 games to survive., basically top eight form. Anyone good won't want to be anywhere near us unless we pay them an absolute fortune knowing more than likely they'll be playing in the championshit next season.

 

 

 


 

cheers captain obvious. Step forward PIF group now is your time to flex the muscle and show us what you have , gonna need it .

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MarkyMark

MarkyMark

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Beth said:

Lets be perfectly honest, assuming we lose the next two games before Jan we would probably need 26-28 points from the last 18 games to survive., basically top eight form. Anyone good won't want to be anywhere near us unless we pay them an absolute fortune knowing more than likely they'll be playing in the championshit next season.

 

 

 

 

Why do people consistently think this?  The evidence doesn't support this 'we need this many points' argument.

 

Take the last five seasons; if Newcastle have 10 points with 18 games remaining on the morning of 1st Jan, how would they need to perform in those games to stay up?  What sort of finish would that be spread across the season?

 

The last five years would have seen a club survive on 29; 35; 35; 34; and 35.  You could minus 1 point if you have better GD.  So generally, you don't need more than 35 points to survive.

 

What about the form required?  Where would you have finished in those seasons if you were could have spread the same points across the season, if you had only accrued 10 points after 20 games?

 

For the form required last year (a bit of an anomaly), you'd have finished: 17th in 20/21; 15th in 19/20; 16th in 18/19; 16th in 17/18; 17th in 16/17

In 19/20: 12th in 20/21; 11th in 19/20; 11th in 18/19; 9th in 17/18; 8th in 16/17

In 18/19: 12th in 20/21; 11th in 19/20; 11th in 18/19; 9th in 17/18; 8th in 16/17

In 17/18: 12th in 20/21; 12th in 19/20; 12th in 18/19; 11th in 17/18; 8th in 16/17

In 16/17: 12th in 20/21; 11th in 19/20; 11th in 18/19; 9th in 17/18; 8th in 16/17

 

So in the last five seasons, there is only one where the average number of points required from the last 18 games would have resulted in a top eight finish - and that's mainly because the side in 8th only managed to get 49 points that year (7th was 61).

 

Just to add - after 18 games, you would be 17th with the following totals (ignoring GD): 13; 16; 13; 16; 15.  Watford have 13 from 16; more directly comparable is Leeds with 16 from 18.  So this season is not unusual so far - it is bang-average.

 

The form required to pull us out of the shit isn't as ludicrous as is sometimes made out - but the maths go increasingly against us with every defeat, of course.  The other thing to consider is how many the teams around us can pick up before we inevitably strengthen in Jan.  If we are within 9 points, you'd still fancy our chances if we've made signings early and well.

 

TL;DR - Newcastle are very, very likely to survive if they hit lower half of mid-table form

 

 

Edited by MarkyMark

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Cronky

Cronky

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Beth said:

Lets be perfectly honest, assuming we lose the next two games before Jan we would probably need 26-28 points from the last 18 games to survive., basically top eight form. Anyone good won't want to be anywhere near us unless we pay them an absolute fortune knowing more than likely they'll be playing in the championshit next season.

 

 

 

 

I assume we'd have to also include a clause that would allow them to leave if we were relegated, perhaps with no transfer fee at all demanded. The player would be taking quite a gamble, and we'd need to make it worth their while. There's also the consideration that the owners wouldn't want to go into the Championship with a hugely inflated wage bill that could hold us back from re-building.

 

Throw in the fact that we're likely to need to look abroad (other Premiership teams would dearly love to see us go down), and many recruits would be reluctant to uproot themselves and possibly their families too, on such a bleak prospect. 

 

It's a strange and new situation all round.

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buzza

buzza

Posted
Posted

We need seven or eight (if we want cover for wilson) signings in my opinion:

Centre Back (x2)  (Ake & tarkowski/Bot)

Left back  (??)

Right back  (Trippier)

Defensive mid  (??)

Ball playing mid   (??)

Right wing/Striker (Lingard)

Striker /Nº 10  (martial)

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SUPERTOON

SUPERTOON

Posted
Posted
Just now, buzza said:

The only people worth keeping for this/next year:

Lewis, manquillo, fede, schar, Dubs, fraser, willock, almiron, Joe, maxi, wilson, murphy

That’s a generous list tbh, based on current form, I wouldn’t keep Fraser, Willock, Almirón, Murphy or Manquillo.

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Gallowgate Toon

Gallowgate Toon

Posted
Posted (edited)

A big thing for Howe will be getting defenders who are also comfortable on the ball as well as actually being able to defend - you could see what we were trying to do yesterday on many occasions but we lacked the conviction/skill/ability to build moves well from the back. Our best hope ended up being Joe turning a couple to move play forward, and a few decent balls behind their fullbacks. I swear Lascelles used to have some level of competency on the ball but he barely seems to be able to kick it these days.

 

A colleague is a Fulham fan and he has pretty solid football opinions - he says Tosin is really good; excellent athlete but also excellent on the ball. Looking at a few clips, he reminds me of a much more physical Mapou. 

 

A bit of 'scouting' on Kamara and he looks to be exactly what we need in midfield and seems to have real calibre. Feels like the sort of signing that would be far too good to be true.

 

 

Edited by Gallowgate Toon

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Optimistic Nut

Optimistic Nut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, buzza said:

We need seven or eight (if we want cover for wilson) signings in my opinion:

Centre Back (x2)  (Ake & tarkowski/Bot)

Left back  (??)

Right back  (Trippier)

Defensive mid  (??)

Ball playing mid   (??)

Right wing/Striker (Lingard)

Striker /Nº 10  (martial)


Reckon we’ll get a CB, RB, CM and a winger.

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Lush Vlad

Lush Vlad

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:


Reckon we’ll get a CB, RB, CM and a winger.

 

If we can get those and the winger is more of a wide forward type, that could play 9 when Wilson is inevitably injured or needs a rest.  Then I think I'd be happy with that.  

 

Absolutely mental that watching yesterday.  I realised we only really have two natural full backs at the club and with both missing, the options were uninspiring to say the least.  Just a chronic lack of investment over the years to end up in this position. 

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Optimistic Nut

Optimistic Nut

Posted
Posted

One quality centre-back would make so much difference to the ones we already have, like. O’Brien & Bramble looked like different players when Woodgate was the one beside them. We’ll not get someone of Woodgate’s quality but someone that could come in and command the defence would see us through until we could get the other centre-back.

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Doctor Zaius

Doctor Zaius

Posted
Posted

I'd take Alli, still relatively young. Lingard i'm more wary of. 

 

The thing is with the likes of Lingard and Trippier, approaching or at the wrong side of 30, coming from top teams. We used to have a reputation pre Ashley for signing overpaid, past it cast offs. I dont think Lingard or Trippier would fall immediately under that bracket, but you have to question how much longevity we'd get out of them - A season? Two perhaps? They'll be 30 and 32 this time next year. It wouldn't matter so much if we could spend what we want, when we want but FFP basically means we're going to have a budget and stick to it. If they were to keep us up, it'd be shrewd enough mind, but we need to have one eye on potentially moving these players on when their legs go.

 

Everton are prime example of the situation we do not want to end up in. Buying players that would in theory have improved the team somewhat, but a few years down the line they're utterly stuck due to overspending and FFP constraints and an inability to get rid of high earners. 

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