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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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Two defeats but both by single goals to pretty much the only good chances we allowed.

 

In the 10 game form table, we are third below only Liverpool and City for fewest goals conceded (7).  Despite these two defeats, our goal difference for the 10 games is still +6. To get relegated, we need to collapse from Champions League form to something like 4 points off 9 matches. That's pretty difficult for a team that hasn't conceded two in a match for three months.

 

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1 hour ago, Stottie said:

Two defeats but both by single goals to pretty much the only good chances we allowed.

 

In the 10 game form table, we are third below only Liverpool and City for fewest goals conceded (7).  Despite these two defeats, our goal difference for the 10 games is still +6. To get relegated, we need to collapse from Champions League form to something like 4 points off 9 matches. That's pretty difficult for a team that hasn't conceded two in a match for three months.

 

Then there is Newcastle. Anything can happen. 

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6 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

How many points are we thinking from our last nine fixtures then? Even being quite pessimistic, I fancy for us at least eight, which would take us to the dizzying heights of 39 points and safety.


Reckon 7-10 which will should be enough even at the lower end. Those three homers are absolutely everything.

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Just now, The Prophet said:

Aye, I fancy us to pick up at least four points in those three home games and beat Norwich. The aim is for that Burnley games to be a dead rubber, similar to Fulham last year.

Exactly my thinking although I wouldn’t be surprised if we did a Chelsea esque thing at Spurs and nicked a point.


Just want safety and the season to be over asap so we can put the whole thing behind us tbh.

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49 minutes ago, Disco said:

Exactly my thinking although I wouldn’t be surprised if we did a Chelsea esque thing at Spurs and nicked a point.


Just want safety and the season to be over asap so we can put the whole thing behind us tbh.

 

Was thinking exactly this earlier when glancing at the fixtures. Obviously this will be a historic year because of what changed but on the pitch/footballing achievements, it's still an Ashley season because that's all it could be. Already excited about what's to come, just need to persevere with rest of this.

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14th: Newcastle United – 31 points (29 games played) GD -17
15th: Brentford – 30 points (30 games) GD -14
16th: Leeds United – 29 points (30 games) GD -33
17th: Everton – 25 points (27 games) GD -18

——————————————————–

18th: Watford – 22 points (29 games) GD -26
19th: Burnley – 21 points (27 games) GD -16
20th: Norwich City – 17 points (29 games) GD -45

Norwich - Fixtures remaining:  Brighton (A), Burnley (H), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H), Aston Villa (A), West Ham (H), Wolves (A), Spurs (H) leicester (tbc)
Burnley -  Fixtures remainingMan City (H), Everton (h) Norwich (A), West Ham (A), Southampton (H) Wolves (H), Watford (A), Aston Villa (H), Spurs (A), Newcastle (H) Villa (a) tbc?
Watford -  Fixtures remaining: Liverpool (A), Leeds (H), Brentford (H), Man City (A), Burnley (H), Palace (A), Leicester (H), Chelsea (A)  Everton (H) (tbc)
Everton- Fixtures remaining: West Ham (A),  Burnley (a) Man utd (h) Leicester (h) Liverpool (a) Palace (h) (tbc) Chelsea (h) Leisterter (a) Brentford (h) Arsenal (a) Watford (a) tbc
Leeds - Fixtures remaining:  Southampton (H), Watford (A), Chelsea (H), Palace (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), Brentford (A)
Brentford - Fixtures remaining:  Chelsea (A), West Ham (H), Watford (A), Spurs (H), Man Utd (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A), Leeds (H)
Newcastle United-  Fixtures remaining:   Spurs (A), Wolves (H), Leicester (H), Palace (H) Norwich (A), Liverpool (H), Man City (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A)

 

 

 

Edited by astraguy

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51 minutes ago, astraguy said:

14th: Newcastle United – 31 points (29 games played) GD -17
15th: Brentford – 30 points (30 games) GD -13
16th: Leeds United – 29 points (30 games) GD -33
17th: Everton – 25 points (27 games) GD -18

——————————————————–

18th: Watford – 22 points (29 games) GD -26
19th: Burnley – 21 points (27 games) GD -16
20th: Norwich City – 17 points (29 games) GD -45

Norwich - Fixtures remaining:  Brighton (A), Burnley (H), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H), Aston Villa (A), West Ham (H), Wolves (A), Spurs (H) leicester (tbc)
Burnley -  Fixtures remaining:  Man City (H), Everton (h) Norwich (A), West Ham (A), Southampton (H) Wolves (H), Watford (A), Aston Villa (H), Spurs (A), Newcastle (H) Villa (a) tbc?
Watford -  Fixtures remaining: Liverpool (A), Leeds (H), Brentford (H), Man City (A), Burnley (H), Palace (A), Leicester (H), Chelsea (A)  Everton (H) (tbc)
Everton- Fixtures remaining: West Ham (A),  Burnley (a) Man utd (h) Leicester (h) Liverpool (a) Palace (h) (tbc) Chelsea (h) Leisterter (a) Brentford (h) Arsenal (a) Watford (a) tbc
Leeds - Fixtures remaining:  Southampton (H), Watford (A), Chelsea (H), Palace (A), Man City (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), Brentford (A)
Brentford - Fixtures remaining: Leicester (A), Chelsea (A), West Ham (H), Watford (A), Spurs (H), Man Utd (A), Southampton (H), Everton (A), Leeds (H)
Newcastle United-  Fixtures remaining:   Spurs (A), Wolves (H), Leicester (H), Palace (H) Norwich (A), Liverpool (H), Man City (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A)

 

 

 

 

I'm doth my cap to you sir, must have patience of a Saint typing all that in.

 

Check https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures for all fixtures and those to be re arranged.

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22 hours ago, bowlingcrofty said:


4 points from those 3 games and it would be pretty much job done.


Yes those 3 games then Norwich away is when they need to put it to bed properly. If they get Wilson and Trippier back for the likes of Arsenal and Pool I think we’ll give them both a proper game at home. 

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