The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Ben]

1 minute ago, gdm said:

So what? Leicester ain’t Everton ffs

Fair enough I suppose we'll see their reaction on Saturday 

[HaydnNUFC]

Wolves (h) D

Leicester (h) D

Palace (h) W
Norwich (a) W

Liverpool (h) L

Man City (a) L
Arsenal (h) D
Burnley (a) W

 

We're more than capable of those results. Was tempted to put a win against Leicester as we're due a home win against the bastards, but anyway that'd put us on 43 points. At SJP we're a different side and we'll even give Liverpool a run for their money imo.

[toon25]

7 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Wolves (h) D

Leicester (h) D

Palace (h) W
Norwich (a) W

Liverpool (h) L

Man City (a) L
Arsenal (h) D
Burnley (a) W

 

We're more than capable of those results. Was tempted to put a win against Leicester as we're due a home win against the bastards, but anyway that'd put us on 43 points. At SJP we're a different side and we'll even give Liverpool a run for their money imo.

There's got to be at least 6-8 points in those remaining fixtures like.

[sushimonster85]

5 minutes ago, toon25 said:

There's got to be at least 6-8 points in those remaining fixtures like.

 

Honestly believe all we need is 4 more points. I think even being as pessimistic with predicting results as possible, it's hard to see us not getting at least 4 points between now and the end of the season. Actually think 6/7 points is more realistic. 

 

Just had a look back to see if there was precedent for an identical drop off to a one that would see us relegated. Only recent-ish one I came across was Swansea in 17/18. On 31 points with 8 games left, 15th in the league. Preceded to only get 2 points from their remaining fixtures and went down. Worth pointing out the team in 18th at the time (Southampton) were actually on 28 points, rather than Burnley's 24. Even if Burnley win their game in hand they're still a point worse off than Southampton were that season. 

 

Main takeaway - we're not definitely safe, but relegation is extremely unlikely.  

[Colos Short and Curlies]

36 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Wolves (h) D W

Leicester (h) D W

Palace (h) W L
Norwich (a) W D

Liverpool (h) L W

Man City (a) L L
Arsenal (h) D L
Burnley (a) W D

 

We're more than capable of those results. Was tempted to put a win against Leicester as we're due a home win against the bastards, but anyway that'd put us on 43 points. At SJP we're a different side and we'll even give Liverpool a run for their money imo.

 

I haven't checked but assumed we will be playing Liverpool in between their Champions League Semi Final and City are beating them on Sunday to kill of the league challenge

[Fantail Breeze]

3 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

I haven't checked but assumed we will be playing Liverpool in between their Champions League Semi Final and City are beating them on Sunday to kill of the league challenge

 

We also play Leicester straight after their PSV second leg (away) in the Europa Conference League which they are apparently now prioritising as a route back into Europe next season.

[The Prophet]

5 minutes ago, Colos Short and Curlies said:

 

I haven't checked but assumed we will be playing Liverpool in between their Champions League Semi Final and City are beating them on Sunday to kill of the league challenge

 

We play Leicester and Palace at really fortuitous times as well, following cup commitments.

[Jesse Pinkman]

Realistic worse case scenario we lose all our remaining games except we beat Norwich and draw with Burnley. That takes us to 35 points. 
 

Then Burnley and Everton would both have to win atleast 4 of their remaining 9 games.

 

Possible but unlikely. 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Jesse Pinkman

[Abacus]

We're 7 points clear of the relegation zone, have 5 teams below us and with arguably our best player to come back from injury.

 

My main takeaway from last night's game was how truly dreadful both teams were, there's not much to fear from either. Both would snap your hand off to trade places with us.

 

Famous last words, but I really do think it's between those two for the last relegation spot. With just a point between them, a better looking run in, and an experienced manager, I think I'd rather be in Burnley's shoes than Everton's right now.

[Happinesstan]

On 03/04/2022 at 21:16, Wolfcastle said:

The title of this c**t not changed back yet?

Haven't won since folk got carried away.

 

 

 

Need to return to "We're shit and we know we are" mode.

[Happinesstan]

On 03/04/2022 at 21:18, The Prophet said:

 

I agree 35-36 to be sure, but I disagree one if the bottom three always goes on a run at the end of the season, just look at last year.

If there was any justice we would have been bottom 3 before we won 17 points from our last nine.

 

[Dokko]

For me it was nailed on Wed go down, even up to Watford I thought it was out of reach. I've been as pessimistic as anyone but even I think there's only about 1% chance of this going tits up from here. 

[Happinesstan]

People revise their opinions on a week to week basis, as if their opinion ladt week never existed. Last week we were confident of going to Spurs and nicking something, now we're afraid of Wolves coming to St. James' on a Friday night?

[Guest HTT II]

We just need to focus on our own games, there are several winnable games for us and if we win on Friday that will only add more pressure on those below us. 

[gdm]

37 minutes ago, HTT II said:

We just need to focus on our own games, there are several winnable games for us and if we win on Friday that will only add more pressure on those below us. 

This is pretty much it. We have a 6 point cushion. We need to pick up points and build on that

[The College Dropout]

6 points from 8 games is all we need. If we can't do that we deserve to go down.

 

We should really aim for 8-10 points.

[nufc123]

1 hour ago, Happinesstan said:

People revise their opinions on a week to week basis, as if their opinion ladt week never existed. Last week we were confident of going to Spurs and nicking something, now we're afraid of Wolves coming to St. James' on a Friday night?

Its like that all the time. One week Burn is Maldlini and the other week he is Boumsong. Its just a hilarious rollercoaster. And im no better myself..

[rgk_lfc]

I know us fans generally tend to oscillate between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism, but I am finding it hard to believe that some of you think that there is a chance you will get relegated. I posted on this message board in the first week of February that if you defeat Everton (and you did), you will be safe. Every metric associated with your games was looking positive and increasing under Eddie Howe. 

 

Burnley had just lost 4 games in a row. Hadn't scored in over 250 minutes of football. They gifted two penalties to Everton and Everton still managed to lose.  That Everton (7 losses in 9 games) is suddenly going to go on a run and overtake you in the points table? Add to that Eddie Howe is several orders of magnitude better manager than Frank Lampard. You will be higher than 40 points when the season ends. 

 

By the way, I don't think Everton is going down. They are still more than capable of getting points, particularly at home.

 

[Wolfcastle]

I've only got Everton getting another 6, yet feel we need another 6 too, factoring in the room for error of football's capacity to make absolutely no sense at all.

5

[midds]

It's the fear of being leapfrogged in the last few minutes of the entire season that's got people on edge I think. Losing at Burnley and dropping into the bottom 3 on the final day is a truly horrific way to go. 

 

Thankfully the chances of this are pretty remote imo

[bowlingcrofty]

If we can somehow get 5 points from the next 3 home games then we’d be pretty much done and dusted.

[SUPERTOON]

The only slight worry is the lack of goals, we don’t really even look like scoring at the minute. It really is a miracle we are in the position we are in considering the attacking options Howe has had for the majority of the season.

[The Prophet]

1 hour ago, rgk_lfc said:

I know us fans generally tend to oscillate between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism, but I am finding it hard to believe that some of you think that there is a chance you will get relegated. I posted on this message board in the first week of February that if you defeat Everton (and you did), you will be safe. Every metric associated with your games was looking positive and increasing under Eddie Howe. 

 

Burnley had just lost 4 games in a row. Hadn't scored in over 250 minutes of football. They gifted two penalties to Everton and Everton still managed to lose.  That Everton (7 losses in 9 games) is suddenly going to go on a run and overtake you in the points table? Add to that Eddie Howe is several orders of magnitude better manager than Frank Lampard. You will be higher than 40 points when the season ends. 

 

By the way, I don't think Everton is going down. They are still more than capable of getting points, particularly at home.

 

 

Good post. I've tried to explain in other threads just how improbable relegation is. That's not to say its impossible, but it requires not just one, but a number of unlikely events to come about. If I had any doubt whatsoever, I'd be having some of the 25/1 on offer at the bookies.

 

I'm on the fence with Everton, they need at least a couple of wins from Leicester, Palace and Brentford at Goodison, or Watford away. I can't see them getting much elsewhere.

[Mattoon]

3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Good post. I've tried to explain in other threads just how improbable relegation is. That's not to say its impossible, but it requires not just one, but a number of unlikely events to come about. If I had any doubt whatsoever, I'd be having some of the 25/1 on offer at the bookies.

 

I'm on the fence with Everton, they need at least a couple of wins from Leicester, Palace and Brentford at Goodison, or Watford away. I can't see them getting much elsewhere.

 

It would take a few teams going on a run of games they've all struggled to do all season and for us to completely capitulate, it's easy to get emotional on the back of some bad results but my head tells me we don't have anything to worry about. I'd argue that 35 points keep you up this season, but I want us to get more and be safe as quick as possible. Everton on the other hand, they have got a win in them but seem to be getting progressively worse, they can't defend and look disjointed up front, where as Burnley look like they can grind out some results, they might not be free scoring but generally look decent defensively. If I were an Everton supporter I would be extremely worried.

[The Prophet]

Leeds fixtures are also as bad, if not worse than our own.