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4 minutes ago, Ikon said:

Don’t want either.

exactly. we've already got strikers that don't/can't score goals (Wood/Gayle). No point adding another

 

Surely there's better available than DCL

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7 minutes ago, gbandit said:

I would not touch DCL for £40m


Why, out of interest? If, and granted it’s a big If, his injury issues are behind him you’d be paying 40m for one of the best pure target men in world football. English tax aside, it’s a decent price.

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2 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said:

If you’re a great finisher, won’t your xG be naturally lower than actual goals? I know Cisse’s was unsustainable but you could imagine the likes of Fowler & Wright having a much higher goal tally to ‘xG’ for example.

Yes but it's all relative.

 

So Barcelona Messi Xg was incredibly high at like 25 but he would regularly outscore it by 5-10 goals per season. A great finisher with high xg = crazy goals.

 

Typically someone like Son has fairly low Xg - 8-12 but he consistently outscores it because of his quality of finishing. This season his Xg was higher than usual but his over performance was higher still.

 

Someone like Tammy Abraham in his best seasons has pretty high Xg 17-22 but slightly underperforms it. Not an elite finisher but he has good movement, pace, knows where to be in the box etc. 

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5 minutes ago, McCormick said:


Why, out of interest? If, and granted it’s a big If, his injury issues are behind him you’d be paying 40m for one of the best pure target men in world football. English tax aside, it’s a decent price.

You have to factor in peoples opinion of him is clouded because he did a photo shoot in a dress and has his hair in a man bun.


(and I’m not specifically relating that comment to our fans, it applies to all fans, Everton included)

 

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2 minutes ago, Conjo said:

 

This season:

image.png.19b148191fa2220992a5248d3463462f.png

 

Seems a perfect fit for what we need at least.

 

Yep. As soon as the link appeared (with actual backing from more credible journos) last week he has been at the top of my wishlist. Think he would be a transformative signing. 

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3 minutes ago, SteV said:

You have to factor in peoples opinion of him is clouded because he did a photo shoot in a dress and has his hair in a man bun.


(and I’m not specifically relating that comment to our fans, it applies to all fans, Everton included)

 


 

Or because of football reasons and how he has been lately. 

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2 minutes ago, SteV said:

You have to factor in peoples opinion of him is clouded because he did a photo shoot in a dress and has his hair in a man bun.


(and I’m not specifically relating that comment to our fans, it applies to all fans, Everton included)

 


It’s nowt to do with that for me. He can wear a dress when he plays and have his hair like Jennifer Aniston as long as he scores goals.

 

Which I’m not convinced he would do enough of. And certainly not worth the risk for £40m.

 

 

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I want players that are on their way up, with their path and progress showing upwards. Nothing about DCL convinces  me that he’s definitely on the right way. He’s still young but it wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t reach high from now on. Toney I just don’t think is good enough, and I think he would cost too much for what he offers goal scoring wise.

 

Bruno is the perfect example for me. Player on the way up. Great quality and in form both mentally and physically. Performing very well

and his best years ahead of him.

 

 

Edited by Ikon

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5 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

DCL or Toney would both be cracking signings imo and £40m is about the going rate.

 

Not sure about Toney since it's been pointed out 5 of his 12 goals last season came from penalties. I think we need an 18-20 goal a season man. DCL might be the better bet, but he has been out with injuries a fair bit as well recently, so that puts me off a bit.

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2 hours ago, sushimonster85 said:

 

It's a bit of a weird one, because we only have one real example of a dip, but look at Harry Kane, and whatever was going on with him at the start of this season. Whether he was distracted by transfer speculation or just knackered who's to say. But his xG for this season and the season prior are pretty much identical (20.1 this season. 20.5 last season). Yet this season he scored 6 fewer goals. The first time he has under-performed his xG for as far back as fbref have 'expected' data. Kane is a player who, in the past several seasons, has vastly over performed his xG. If you were to look purely at the numbers this season is unexplainable. However anyone who watched Spurs in the first half of the season could tell you straight away that Harry Kane just wasn't with it. 

 

This is what I was referring to, a striker having a dip in confidence can be really hard to forecast, and they're more prone to it than pretty much any other position on the pitch.  

Well aye - it's a data point. He usually over performs and this season he under performed. Historic data suggests next season he'll go back to over performing. Although it could indicate a turn in fortunes. We'll see

 

I don't think confidence was the cause. I had him most of the 2nd half of the season on FPL and he consistently ranked in the top 1-2 players for Xg and big chances and he clearly had confidence under Conte. He just kept missing and didn't look all that desperate to score either (more interested in playmaking). The Arsenal game was the only one he looked determined to score. Son had less Xg and Big chances but was consistently tucking them away and he looked hungry to score, constantly making meaningful runs in the box.

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I’m not convinced we’ll sign anyone who’ll expect to start up top every game ahead of Wilson. I think they might ‘gamble’ on Wilson and sign more of an understudy (Ekitike type) as well as look to provide cover from one of the other positions we move for (eg a RW who can also play up top).

 

We’re in the unfortunate position where Wilson is one of our few players with the quality to take us to the next level…but he’s potentially not going to available for a decent chunk of the season. 

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Yeah Ekitike as the understudy makes a lot of sense IMO, especially as he can play out wide too a bit so will get plenty of opportunities to start or come off the bench.

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27 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

DCL or Toney would both be cracking signings imo and £40m is about the going rate.


A full-fit* DCL is one of the best strikers in the Premier League.

 

*I can understand people not wanting him due to his injury record but doubting his ability is ridiculous. 

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If our strikers for next season is in this order...

 

Wilson

Ekitike

Wood

Youth Propsect promoted

 

...then I could go with that, but we would definitely need Paqueta for CM (or that level of good) and some outstanding player for right wing. The Diaby chap sounds like he can fit the bill. As long as we have more goal scorers from CM and RW then it releases burden on Wilson and Ekitike. Ideally Wood out and another striker in, sounds harsh but seen enough of Wood and sadly don't want to see anymore.

 

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I'm on board with signing any player who is an England international and still has room to improve tbh. 10 years ago I would have said there was no value at all as they were usually massively overpriced but I don't think that's the case anymore. 

 

In fact other than France and Brazil I donk think any other country is producing the same amount of depth in all positions. You can see that depth and competition for places in the fact that very decent players with dual citizenship are now opting to play for other countries.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

Not sure about Toney since it's been pointed out 5 of his 12 goals last season came from penalties. I think we need an 18-20 goal a season man. DCL might be the better bet, but he has been out with injuries a fair bit as well recently, so that puts me off a bit.

We're in a strange cycle of football at the moment where a lot of top scorers don't score that many goals. 18-20 goals sounds reasonable and attainable  but then Ronaldo was 3rd highest scorer last season with 18. In 2011/12 Aguero was 3rd highest top scorer with 23, Van Persie was top with 30 goals. 

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1 minute ago, ponsaelius said:

I'm on board with signing any player who is an England international and still has room to improve tbh. 10 years ago I would have said there was no value at all as they were usually massively overpriced but I don't think that's the case anymore. 

 

In fact other than France and Brazil I donk think any other country is producing the same amount of depth in all positions. You can see that depth and competition for places in the fact that very decent players with dual citizenship are now opting to play for other countries.

 

 


This :thup:. I’d add Portugal to the list as well.

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Portugal is more variable depending on positions IMO. Midfielders, wingers, full backs - yes. Centre forwards and goalkeepers I would be more cautious. CBs hit and miss. 

 

France and Brazil have big depth across all positions. Loads of good players who don't even come close to breaking their national set up. The former ends up providing half of the talent at AFCON.

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