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Balls on the bath - who's going down?

The Prophet

by The Prophet
in Football

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Cronky

Cronky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Gawalls said:

Even though it’s 500-1 unlikely we get relegated, the old Newcastle supporter in me is wondering if 43 will be enough as I think we’ll lose the next 2 games.

 

I know what you mean. 

 

There's no rule which says that a team with 43 points can't be relegated. The media often proclaim that a team is safe or sure to win the title prematurely. It only takes 2 or 3 results for the picture to change and the pressure to be back on. And I don't fancy going to Burnley for the last game still needing something.

 

Hopefully it's just the pessimist in me talking, instilled after so many disappointments over the years. 

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madras

madras

Posted
Posted

I'm off tomorrow so might give it a go to work out the actual cumulative odds game by game for us to go down, bearing in mind it needs Villa to beat Liverpool or Man City, possibly both, Burnley getting something at Spurs, Leeds getting something from Chelsea or Arsenal possibly both.

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Awaymag

Awaymag

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, madras said:

I'm off tomorrow so might give it a go to work out the actual cumulative odds game by game for us to go down, bearing in mind it needs Villa to beat Liverpool or Man City, possibly both, Burnley getting something at Spurs, Leeds getting something from Chelsea or Arsenal possibly both.

can you imagine this place if we hadn't won 4 in a row to pull us clear...........pure blood bath and police would have to step in as they would think this forum was a suicide cult! :suicide:

 

 

Edited by Awaymag

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The Prophet

The Prophet

Posted
Posted

I thought 36 points would be enough this term. It probably will be a bit more than that now, but it's a big ask for Burnley, Leeds and Everton to all hit 39 points. It's not impossible, but I'd want very good odds.

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Gawalls

Gawalls

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LV said:


I think we’ll get something out of Arsenal at ours. I’m more worried about Burnley away. 

Not convinced on arsenal game as we never get anything from arsenal and they have this thing with spurs going on at the moment so won’t be pulling any punches.

 

 Yet I’ve still read comments from people (I know you’re not one of these saying this) “we should be getting something from arsenal game”.

 

Why “should” we be getting something from that game?

 

 

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Lush Vlad

Lush Vlad

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Posted

Annoying that it seems like Leeds are the most likely to go down now. I don’t mind them and like them in the Prem.  
 

Everton would have been amusing. Burnley have been awful to watch for ages. So I was thinking either or is fine with me. 

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Neil

Neil

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Joey Linton said:

Southampton aren't getting relegated lads. :lol:

 

I'm very aware they're almost certainly not. But it's not "1 time in 250" unlikely, therefore is a good bet.

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The Prophet

The Prophet

Posted
Posted

Arsenal are really hit and miss away from the Emirates. It's not a total write off, but its certainly not a fixture I'd want to be depending on. They are much better than us all over the park, after all.

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Neil

Neil

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Joey Linton said:

It's a losing bet, so it's a bad bet. 

 

That is such a misunderstanding of how odds work that I can't rationalise a response, but we'll leave it there.

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Hovagod

Hovagod

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Neil said:

 

That is such a misunderstanding of how odds work that I can't rationalise a response, but we'll leave it there.

Well, he’s right. The odds can be whatever they are, but you won’t win. Thinking otherwise is what bookie scum want people to do

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Adam

Adam

Posted
Posted

Burnley - 34

Villa (h) W 37

Spurs (a) L 37

Villa (a) L 37 (Probably get a point D 38)

Newcastle (h) L 37 (I want us to win but losing this to send Everton down would be amazing W 41)

 

Leeds - 34

Arsenal (a) L 34

Chelsea (h) L 34 (after yesterday Leeds probably win this W 37

Brighton (h) W 37 (W40)

Brentford (a) D 38

 

Everton - 32

Leicester (a) L 32

Watford (a) W 35

Brentford (h) W 38

Palace (h) D 39 

Arsenal (a) L 39

 

Thats my thoughts being pessimistic about Burnley and Leeds and giving Everton the home bounce. I still think (and hope) Everton will go down as they need two wins at least to have any chance with Burnley and Leeds capable of nicking a point here or there. Just need them all to lose a game so they can't catch us first.

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Paullow

Paullow

Posted
Posted

I share the same sentiment as others. For weeks I've been buzzing when Burnley won - cheered them on vs Southampton on Sky, punched the air when watching the Chelsea-West Ham match Vydra's goal confirmation vs Wolves came through, and was buzzing when they turned it around vs Watford, mainly to put the pressure on Everton, but realistically, it's now looking like all it's done is harm Leeds, a city I really like, and a club that I don't mind at all, and would much prefer to stay in the Premier League than either of the others :anguish:.

 

I get the fact they are poor away from home, seem to raise their game in the higher profile matches, but I just can't see Everton going down now. They might not get them, but I really could see them getting 8 or 9 points from their next 4 matches, so I am looking at it more from Burnley and Leeds perspective now.

 

Burnley can certainly look to get 4-6 points from Newcastle and Villa at home, and while they will still be a clear underdog, if Spurs were to lose to Liverpool and Arsenal in their next 2, that Spurs away match (without the CL carrot) won't look quite as daunting, albeit still fairly tough. If Burnley get 4 points, then Leeds need 5 (depending on Everton), and that's tricky. But at the same time, player for player, Burnley are the worst side in terms of quality (if not spirit), worse team than Villa, worse team than us, and this feel good factor might run out and they might just pick up 1 or 2 points from their remaining matches, it really is so hard to call, but I do think Everton are definitely in the best position now, and they do have decent fixtures, and just more quality all over the park. England's GK, Mina, Gordon, Richarlison etc. are good players.

 

Still, it'll be exciting watching it all unfold, and a relief that we're not involved.

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Abacus

Abacus

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

Annoying that it seems like Leeds are the most likely to go down now. I don’t mind them and like them in the Prem.  
 

Everton would have been amusing. Burnley have been awful to watch for ages. So I was thinking either or is fine with me. 

 

I agree in general, even if a decent chunk of their fans let them down. Still, they add a bit of spice.

 

On the upside, according to one of their forums, Richarlison has a £25m relegation release clause which might be worth a punt. And they reckon they'll lose Phillips for about £60m with the English player tax, though not convinced I'd take the risk there.

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Joey Linton

Joey Linton

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Neil said:

 

That is such a misunderstanding of how odds work that I can't rationalise a response, but we'll leave it there.

That is such a misunderstanding of how bookmakers work...... 

 

They've enticed you to bet on something that won't happen by setting the odds at a level which captures your interest. You're exactly the sort of punter they are looking for. 

 

Feel free of course to let me know how much you win. 

 

 

Edited by Joey Linton

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Thomson Mouse

Thomson Mouse

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Awaymag said:

can you imagine this place if we hadn't won 4 in a row to pull us clear...........pure blood bath and police would have to step in as they would think this forum was a suicide cult! :suicide:

 

 

 

 

But it’s not knee-jerk tastic :lol: 

 

there’s no way we’re  going down 

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Neil

Neil

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Joey Linton said:

That is such a misunderstanding of how bookmakers work...... 

 

They've enticed you to bet on something that won't happen by setting the odds at a level which captures your interest. You're exactly the sort of punter they are looking for. 

 

Feel free of course to let me know how much you win. 

 

 

 

 

I will do mate. Probably about zero pounds, but your logic once again is extraordinarily flawed.

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LV

LV

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Gawalls said:

Not convinced on arsenal game as we never get anything from arsenal and they have this thing with spurs going on at the moment so won’t be pulling any punches.

 

 Yet I’ve still read comments from people (I know you’re not one of these saying this) “we should be getting something from arsenal game”.

 

Why “should” we be getting something from that game?

 

 


Yeah there’s no guarantees for sure. I’m just more confident of getting something at home than away at Burnley. Who knows! 

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