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STM

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57 members have voted

  1. 1. Where will we finish?

    • 1st
      3
    • 2nd
      1
    • 3rd
      8
    • 4th
      15

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On 15/08/2022 at 22:19, STM said:

For context, in the last 17 days of January we signed Bruno, Burn and Targett. 

 

I'm guessing that they aren't wanting to go early in case someone becomes available that they didn't think they could get.

Neymar :lol:........................:bob:

 

 

 

 

Edited by duo

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17 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Yep. I completely get people's frustrations in attack but if we concede anywhere near the 62 we did last year, we've failed defensively. I'd be surprised if we conceded more than 50.

Transfermarkt has Howe in the PL as 

P28 W14 D5 L9 F31 A35 47Pts 1.68PPG

Add the Brentford 3-3 they have down as "Tindall"

P29 W14 D6 L9 F34 A39 Pts 1.655 PPG

 

That's 39 conceded in 29. 1.334 average conceded per game, including games with Clark, Darlow, Ritchie at LB, etc. 1.334 times 38 would 51 against for the season.

Given the squad improvements, I think par for the goals against column is 45. If Howe himself has a target, I would expect it to be lower. 45 against is Tottenham/Arsenal level.

 

btw, in recent years, a goal difference of zero is enough for seventh or eighth. Over many teams and many seasons, there is very strong correlation between goal difference and points gained. Howe is only 5 goals off a zero goal difference. For the scale of that achievement, it must be remembered that NUFC conceded 80 goals in 2021, a calendar year record. 

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On 14/08/2022 at 15:57, STM said:

 

Just an update 2 games in:

 

Newcastle: 4 points after 2 games, an average of 2 PPG above the target of 1.5 PPG. Of course this will reduce after we play city. :lol:

 

Other potential rivals after 2 games:

Brighton: 4 points

Villa: 3 points

Leicester: 1 point

Wolves: 1 point

Man Utd: 0 points

Palace: 0 points Play on Monday against Liverpool

West Ham: 0 points

 

Other sides not included because I either don't believe they are strong enough or are the "top 5" teams.

 

 

 

 

Game week 3 update:

 

We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place.

 

The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton.

 

As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season:

 

Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness)

Villa: 3 from 3

Wolves: 1 from 3

Leicester: 1 from 3

West Ham: 0 from 3

Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow)

Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3)

 

In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite.

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1 minute ago, STM said:

 

Game week 3 update:

 

We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place.

 

The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton.

 

As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season:

 

Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness)

Villa: 3 from 3

Wolves: 1 from 3

Leicester: 1 from 3

West Ham: 0 from 3

Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow)

Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3)

 

In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite.

 

Leeds looking pretty good mind, i do wonder if they'll fall away at some point. 

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Just now, Comegetasample said:

 

Leeds looking pretty good mind, i do wonder if they'll fall away at some point. 

Will give it a couple of weeks before deciding if they should be added. Very early days. They do look good mind.

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23 minutes ago, STM said:

 

Game week 3 update:

 

We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place.

 

The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton.

 

As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season:

 

Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness)

Villa: 3 from 3

Wolves: 1 from 3

Leicester: 1 from 3

West Ham: 0 from 3

Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow)

Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3)

 

In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite.

Leeds are doing canny as well.

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18 wins, 6 draws, 14 defeats gets you 60 points. That's probably going to get you 7th if not very close.

 

Probably need to be looking at winning 11-12 of the 13 home games against the non 'big 6' and getting 3 draws from the rest.

 

Away we'd need 6-7 wins so even if we write-off the big 6, that's half of the games against the rest of the league and a few draws again. 

 

We're probably 1 point ahead of where we'd expect to be to get those points. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

18 wins, 6 draws, 14 defeats gets you 60 points. That's probably going to get you 7th if not very close.

 

Probably need to be looking at winning 11-12 of the 13 home games against the non 'big 6' and getting 3 draws from the rest.

 

Away we'd need 6-7 wins so even if we write-off the big 6, that's half of the games against the rest of the league and a few draws again. 

 

We're probably 1 point ahead of where we'd expect to be to get those points. 

 

A year ago we'd be grateful for a point from those opening three fixtures.

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Thought I'd do this as a bit of a visualiser to get to 60 points. Based this on 11 home wins, 3 home draws and 5 home defeats (36 points) and 7 away wins, 3 away draws and 9 away defeats (24 points).

 

Just to make it easier I've based the 'required points' bit based on last season's table (so Wolves finished 10th last season so would require 3 points from them at home and 1 away, Brighton finished 9th last season so would required 3 points from them at home, 0 away).

 

This will change as the season goes on so since we got a draw at Brighton when we required 0, 10th placed Wolves now changes to 0 points. I'll put in brackets what we're on track for based on what we would have needed before the season starts.

 

Similarly as we gained a draw against Man City when 0 were required, Man Utd who finished 6th last season changes to 0 points required instead of 1 point required.

 

We need at home 10 more wins & 2 more draws (32 points to go)

We need away from home 7 more wins & 2 more draws (23 points to go)

 

Nottingham Forest (H)- 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 60 points)

Brighton (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 61 points)

Manchester City (H) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points)

Wolves (A) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

Liverpool (A) - 0 points required

Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points required

West Ham (A) -  0 points required

Bournemouth (H) - 3 points required

Fulham (A) - 3 points required

Brentford (H) - 3 points required

Manchester United (A) - 0 points required

Everton (H) - 3 points required

Spurs (A) - 0 points required

Aston Villa (H) - 3 points required

Southampton (A) - 3 points required

Chelsea (H) - 0 points required

Leicester (A) - 0 points required

Leeds (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (A) - 0 points required

Fulham (H) - 3 points required

Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point required

West Ham (H) - 1 point required

Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required

Liverpool (H) - 0 points required

Brighton (H) - 3 points required

Man City (A) - 0 points required

Wolves (H) - 3 points required

Nottingham Forest (A) - 3 points required

Manchester United (H) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

Brentford (A) - 1 point required

Aston Villa (A) - 3 points required

Spurs (H) - 0 points required

Everton (A) - 3 points required

Southampton (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (H) - 0 points required

Leeds (A) - 3 points required

Leicester (H) - 1 point required

Chelsea (A) - 0 points required

 

 

Edited by Optimistic Nut

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7 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Thought I'd do this as a bit of a visualiser to get to 60 points. Based this on 11 home wins, 3 home draws and 5 home defeats (36 points) and 7 away wins, 3 away draws and 9 away defeats (24 points).

 

Just to make it easier I've based the 'required points' bit based on last season's table (so Wolves finished 10th last season so would require 3 points from them at home and 1 away, Brighton finished 9th last season so would required 3 points from them at home, 0 away).

 

This will change as the season goes on so since we got a draw at Brighton when we required 0, 10th placed Wolves now changes to 0 points. I'll put in brackets what we're on track for based on what we would have needed before the season starts.

 

Similarly as we gained a draw against Man City when 0 were required, Man Utd who finished 6th last season changes to 0 points required instead of 1 point required.

 

We need at home 10 more wins & 2 more draws (32 points to go)

We need away from home 7 more wins & 2 more draws (23 points to go)

 

Nottingham Forest (H)- 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 60 points)

Brighton (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 61 points)

Manchester City (H) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points)

Wolves (A) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

Liverpool (A) - 0 points required

Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points required

West Ham (A) -  0 points required

Bournemouth (H) - 3 points required

Fulham (A) - 3 points required

Brentford (H) - 3 points required

Manchester United (A) - 0 points required

Everton (H) - 3 points required

Spurs (A) - 0 points required

Aston Villa (H) - 3 points required

Southampton (A) - 3 points required

Chelsea (H) - 0 points required

Leicester (A) - 0 points required

Leeds (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (A) - 0 points required

Fulham (H) - 3 points required

Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point required

West Ham (H) - 1 point required

Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required

Liverpool (H) - 0 points required

Brighton (H) - 3 points required

Man City (A) - 0 points required

Wolves (H) - 3 points required

Nottingham Forest (A) - 3 points required

Manchester United (H) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

Brentford (A) - 1 point required

Aston Villa (A) - 3 points required

Spurs (H) - 0 points required

Everton (A) - 3 points required

Southampton (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (H) - 0 points required

Leeds (A) - 3 points required

Leicester (H) - 1 point required

Chelsea (A) - 0 points required

 

 

 

:icon_salut:

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Nice one ON. TheOther14 on Twitter have something similar, but their points target is 39 to avoid relegation. We have four hard games in our first five fixtures this season, and should set our expectations accordingly. Howe had the same thing when he first started, with Bruce having pissed away many easy fixtures at the start of 21/22.

 

 

 

 

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                            Pope

 

Trippier   Botman       Burn         Targett

 

                Bruno          Big Joe

 

                           Pedro

 

Isak                     Wilson                  Maxi
 

 

 

 

when everyone is fit   :fwap:

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