duo Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) On 15/08/2022 at 22:19, STM said: For context, in the last 17 days of January we signed Bruno, Burn and Targett. I'm guessing that they aren't wanting to go early in case someone becomes available that they didn't think they could get. Neymar ........................ Edited August 16, 2022 by duo Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 17 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said: Yep. I completely get people's frustrations in attack but if we concede anywhere near the 62 we did last year, we've failed defensively. I'd be surprised if we conceded more than 50. Transfermarkt has Howe in the PL as P28 W14 D5 L9 F31 A35 47Pts 1.68PPG Add the Brentford 3-3 they have down as "Tindall" P29 W14 D6 L9 F34 A39 Pts 1.655 PPG That's 39 conceded in 29. 1.334 average conceded per game, including games with Clark, Darlow, Ritchie at LB, etc. 1.334 times 38 would 51 against for the season. Given the squad improvements, I think par for the goals against column is 45. If Howe himself has a target, I would expect it to be lower. 45 against is Tottenham/Arsenal level. btw, in recent years, a goal difference of zero is enough for seventh or eighth. Over many teams and many seasons, there is very strong correlation between goal difference and points gained. Howe is only 5 goals off a zero goal difference. For the scale of that achievement, it must be remembered that NUFC conceded 80 goals in 2021, a calendar year record. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Another decent set of results for us today Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Five teams that finished above us last year, Liverpool, Leicester, Wolves, West Ham and Man U are in the bottom six Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 It's really there for the taking. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazza ladra Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 When the transfer window closes we’ll have a better idea. Still delusional. We’ll get some quality this window and January. West Ham. Wolves, and us for 7th or 6th depending on how shit Man Utd actually are. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
r0cafella Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Looking at the league table after 3 games Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Edgar Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 (edited) 5 points from 9 is bloody impressive with Man City and an game away to Brighton. 4 is probably a solid par score. Edited August 21, 2022 by David Edgar Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 On 14/08/2022 at 15:57, STM said: Just an update 2 games in: Newcastle: 4 points after 2 games, an average of 2 PPG above the target of 1.5 PPG. Of course this will reduce after we play city. Other potential rivals after 2 games: Brighton: 4 points Villa: 3 points Leicester: 1 point Wolves: 1 point Man Utd: 0 points Palace: 0 points Play on Monday against Liverpool West Ham: 0 points Other sides not included because I either don't believe they are strong enough or are the "top 5" teams. Game week 3 update: We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place. The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton. As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season: Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness) Villa: 3 from 3 Wolves: 1 from 3 Leicester: 1 from 3 West Ham: 0 from 3 Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow) Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3) In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comegetasample Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 minute ago, STM said: Game week 3 update: We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place. The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton. As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season: Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness) Villa: 3 from 3 Wolves: 1 from 3 Leicester: 1 from 3 West Ham: 0 from 3 Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow) Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3) In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite. Leeds looking pretty good mind, i do wonder if they'll fall away at some point. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Just now, Comegetasample said: Leeds looking pretty good mind, i do wonder if they'll fall away at some point. Will give it a couple of weeks before deciding if they should be added. Very early days. They do look good mind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happinesstan Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, STM said: Game week 3 update: We have now 5 points from 3 games, which is above the 1.5 PPG target which should see us around 7th place. The beauty of this is that we have played a side whom we wouldn't have expected to get anything from in Man City, as well as a very creditable away draw at Brighton. As for those other sides who we presume will be near us come the end of the season: Brighton: 7 from 3 (outstanding in fairness) Villa: 3 from 3 Wolves: 1 from 3 Leicester: 1 from 3 West Ham: 0 from 3 Man Utd: 0 from 2 (play Liverpool tommorow) Palace: 4 from 3 (excellent since they have had Liverpool and Arsenal in the first 3) In summary; US, Brighton and Palace have had great starts, the rest have been shite. Leeds are doing canny as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 18 wins, 6 draws, 14 defeats gets you 60 points. That's probably going to get you 7th if not very close. Probably need to be looking at winning 11-12 of the 13 home games against the non 'big 6' and getting 3 draws from the rest. Away we'd need 6-7 wins so even if we write-off the big 6, that's half of the games against the rest of the league and a few draws again. We're probably 1 point ahead of where we'd expect to be to get those points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happinesstan Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said: 18 wins, 6 draws, 14 defeats gets you 60 points. That's probably going to get you 7th if not very close. Probably need to be looking at winning 11-12 of the 13 home games against the non 'big 6' and getting 3 draws from the rest. Away we'd need 6-7 wins so even if we write-off the big 6, that's half of the games against the rest of the league and a few draws again. We're probably 1 point ahead of where we'd expect to be to get those points. A year ago we'd be grateful for a point from those opening three fixtures. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 (edited) Thought I'd do this as a bit of a visualiser to get to 60 points. Based this on 11 home wins, 3 home draws and 5 home defeats (36 points) and 7 away wins, 3 away draws and 9 away defeats (24 points). Just to make it easier I've based the 'required points' bit based on last season's table (so Wolves finished 10th last season so would require 3 points from them at home and 1 away, Brighton finished 9th last season so would required 3 points from them at home, 0 away). This will change as the season goes on so since we got a draw at Brighton when we required 0, 10th placed Wolves now changes to 0 points. I'll put in brackets what we're on track for based on what we would have needed before the season starts. Similarly as we gained a draw against Man City when 0 were required, Man Utd who finished 6th last season changes to 0 points required instead of 1 point required. We need at home 10 more wins & 2 more draws (32 points to go) We need away from home 7 more wins & 2 more draws (23 points to go) Nottingham Forest (H)- 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 60 points) Brighton (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 61 points) Manchester City (H) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points) Wolves (A) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required) Liverpool (A) - 0 points required Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points required West Ham (A) - 0 points required Bournemouth (H) - 3 points required Fulham (A) - 3 points required Brentford (H) - 3 points required Manchester United (A) - 0 points required Everton (H) - 3 points required Spurs (A) - 0 points required Aston Villa (H) - 3 points required Southampton (A) - 3 points required Chelsea (H) - 0 points required Leicester (A) - 0 points required Leeds (H) - 3 points required Arsenal (A) - 0 points required Fulham (H) - 3 points required Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point required West Ham (H) - 1 point required Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required Liverpool (H) - 0 points required Brighton (H) - 3 points required Man City (A) - 0 points required Wolves (H) - 3 points required Nottingham Forest (A) - 3 points required Manchester United (H) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required) Brentford (A) - 1 point required Aston Villa (A) - 3 points required Spurs (H) - 0 points required Everton (A) - 3 points required Southampton (H) - 3 points required Arsenal (H) - 0 points required Leeds (A) - 3 points required Leicester (H) - 1 point required Chelsea (A) - 0 points required Edited August 22, 2022 by Optimistic Nut Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Cheers ON👍 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 7 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said: Thought I'd do this as a bit of a visualiser to get to 60 points. Based this on 11 home wins, 3 home draws and 5 home defeats (36 points) and 7 away wins, 3 away draws and 9 away defeats (24 points). Just to make it easier I've based the 'required points' bit based on last season's table (so Wolves finished 10th last season so would require 3 points from them at home and 1 away, Brighton finished 9th last season so would required 3 points from them at home, 0 away). This will change as the season goes on so since we got a draw at Brighton when we required 0, 10th placed Wolves now changes to 0 points. I'll put in brackets what we're on track for based on what we would have needed before the season starts. Similarly as we gained a draw against Man City when 0 were required, Man Utd who finished 6th last season changes to 0 points required instead of 1 point required. We need at home 10 more wins & 2 more draws (32 points to go) We need away from home 7 more wins & 2 more draws (23 points to go) Nottingham Forest (H)- 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 60 points) Brighton (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 61 points) Manchester City (H) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points) Wolves (A) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required) Liverpool (A) - 0 points required Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points required West Ham (A) - 0 points required Bournemouth (H) - 3 points required Fulham (A) - 3 points required Brentford (H) - 3 points required Manchester United (A) - 0 points required Everton (H) - 3 points required Spurs (A) - 0 points required Aston Villa (H) - 3 points required Southampton (A) - 3 points required Chelsea (H) - 0 points required Leicester (A) - 0 points required Leeds (H) - 3 points required Arsenal (A) - 0 points required Fulham (H) - 3 points required Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point required West Ham (H) - 1 point required Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required Liverpool (H) - 0 points required Brighton (H) - 3 points required Man City (A) - 0 points required Wolves (H) - 3 points required Nottingham Forest (A) - 3 points required Manchester United (H) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required) Brentford (A) - 1 point required Aston Villa (A) - 3 points required Spurs (H) - 0 points required Everton (A) - 3 points required Southampton (H) - 3 points required Arsenal (H) - 0 points required Leeds (A) - 3 points required Leicester (H) - 1 point required Chelsea (A) - 0 points required Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stottie Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Nice one ON. TheOther14 on Twitter have something similar, but their points target is 39 to avoid relegation. We have four hard games in our first five fixtures this season, and should set our expectations accordingly. Howe had the same thing when he first started, with Bruce having pissed away many easy fixtures at the start of 21/22. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfcastle Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Makes a change from 'bare minimum required' Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 All in on this thread now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JumpersForGoalposts Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 7th-o-meter? Try 4th-o-meter. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafalove Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Pope Trippier Botman Burn Targett Bruno Big Joe Pedro Isak Wilson Maxi when everyone is fit Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
BottledDog Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Would be great to think we should be 8-10th, even without further signings! Top half would be grand though tbf. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 2 hours ago, JumpersForGoalposts said: 7th-o-meter? Try 4th-o-meter. This is why I have resisted voting in this thread so far. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeEd32 Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Wish we could have played that at full strength but every point away from home is a plus. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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