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The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.


Rich

The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

620 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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1 minute ago, Decky said:

 

I find it hard to simplify it like that though, and I'm sure part of the reason is because I'm not used to us being in this position. But one of these teams is Liverpool who absolutely no one would be surprised if they won all their last games.

 

Liverpool have been below their normal standards this season but this time a year ago they were going for the quadruple so they've got the ability and seem to be kicking into gear a bit. We have to assume they'll get 71 points and make 72 our bare minimum. We have tough games against Arsenal and Brighton, a potential banana skin away to a side with a new manager taking his first home game. I know Big Sam is shite but football never works like that, Dyce got something from Arsenal in his first home game this season for example. Away to Chelsea can't be relied upon either. There's still plenty to do before we can say this is done but I do think it will be if Liverpool fail to win even just one of their remaining games. Hopefully that happens tonight. 

 

It's definitely more difficult when you've got skin in the game. As much as I strongly fancy us, I'd be a bag of nerves if it came down to the final day of the season.  It'd be foolish to completely rule Brighton or Liverpool out of the running at this point, but they have no margin for error, whereas even average form sees us home at this point. I'm confident we'll get the required points, regardless of what the chasing back do.

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21 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Out of interest, if we were talking about Team A and Team B (definitely not Newcastle and Liverpool):

 

Both Team A and Team B have 5 games left with 15 points to play for.

Team A have 9 more points than Team B.

Team A have +11 goal difference on Team B.

Team A have won 8 of their last 9 games.

Team B have won 4 in a row.

Team A have 3 home games remaining. 

Team B have 3 home games remaining.

Both Team A and Team B's remaining away games are v teams in the bottom half.

 

How much of a chance would you give Team B of finishing above Team A?

 

That all looks good on paper, but as we saw with the cup final, getting over the final hurdle brings a pressure all of it's own. Liverpool are capable of winning their remaining games, and it's not impossible to see a scenario where we stumble with the finish line approaching, especially if they've closed the gap to 3 points, and us with a tough game against Arsenal to come.

 

Not that I think it will happen like that, I think if we need to win our last few matches we'll win. But until we've seen how we cope with the pressure of the last few games you can't take anything for granted. Going to be a supercharged atmosphere at St James on Sunday either way, I think it will be like the Spurs game and more.

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1 minute ago, TRon said:

 

That all looks good on paper, but as we saw with the cup final, getting over the final hurdle brings a pressure all of it's own. Liverpool are capable of winning their remaining games, and it's not impossible to see a scenario where we stumble with the finish line approaching, especially if they've closed the gap to 3 points, and us with a tough game against Arsenal to come.

 

Not that I think it will happen like that, I think if we need to win our last few matches we'll win. But until we've seen how we cope with the pressure of the last few games you can't take anything for granted. Going to be a supercharged atmosphere at St James on Sunday either way, I think it will be like the Spurs game and more.

 

It's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely. 

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We need 7 points from 3 home games and 2 away games both of which are against shit teams. We've won 8 in 9, scoring 26 goals. No idea how or why there's such a song and dance being made about it. "But Ashley", "but 95-96".

 

We're a different club now. Howay man.

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2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's not impossible, but it's highly unlikely. 

 

Agree. Despite the nerves, if I had to put my money on who qualifies us, it's always going to be us at this stage. That's always my acid test.

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I just wish Liverpool would drop some points. One slip up and I'd be at 100% confidence. Not just because we'd have such a huge margin for error at that point but I reckon once they slip up once they'll probably do it again.

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Just now, ponsaelius said:

I just wish Liverpool would drop some points. One slip up and I'd be at 100% confidence. Not just because we'd have such a huge margin for error at that point but I reckon once they slip up once they'll probably do it again.

Tonight, please be tonight [emoji38]

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Liverpool have an unfortunate knack of getting the results they need,  I will be concerned if they win their next two, but then again so will Man Utd

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So with Liverpool looking likely to pick up maximum points from their remaining games, we will soon find out if as a club we've grown a pair since the League Cup Final surrender or if we are still paralyzed by  half a century of failure. Hopefully the latter starting by beating Arsenal on Sunday which should just about clinch it.

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2 hours ago, 1964 said:

Liverpool have an unfortunate knack of getting the results they need,  I will be concerned if they win their next two, but then again so will Man Utd

 

Doesn't change loads as far as we're concerned.

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2 hours ago, ponsaelius said:

I just wish Liverpool would drop some points. One slip up and I'd be at 100% confidence. Not just because we'd have such a huge margin for error at that point but I reckon once they slip up once they'll probably do it again.

 

They've actually had slip ups in their last two games but the ref helped them out against West Ham, and they got jammy as fuck against Spurs. They haven't been convincing at all, but in their two hardest games they have managed to come out with 6pts instead of 2. That's why you always have to do this on your own bat at the end of the day, never leave it in anyone else's hands.

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9 minutes ago, TRon said:

 

They've actually had slip ups in their last two games but the ref helped them out against West Ham, and they got jammy as fuck against Spurs. They haven't been convincing at all, but in their two hardest games they have managed to come out with 6pts instead of 2. That's why you always have to do this on your own bat at the end of the day, never leave it in anyone else's hands.

 

If we were on equal points or chasing them right now it would be infuriating. Hopefully we can look back at this and laugh about how they pathetically failed at catching us despite getting every decision in their favor.

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1 minute ago, timeEd32 said:

 

If we were on equal points or chasing them right now it would be infuriating. Hopefully we can look back at this and laugh about how they pathetically failed at catching us despite getting every decision in their favor.

Again, if we look after our end of business (and we can) we good! 

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Fucking typical Liverpool are hitting form and getting all the decisions their way, I'm getting very concerned now.

 

Tough game Sunday, could easily lose it, as shit as Allardyce is you just know Leeds are beating us, it's then Brighton and Leicester at home, Brighton look awesome and Leicester are good for a point to stay up, then away at Chelsea where, as shit as they are, we have a shite record. Can't see too many points coming up for us, 5th place I fear

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