The Europeometer™ (2023/24) - permutations in O.P.

[Chicken Dancer]

Appreciate the confidence of many. Proud to admit I'm a bed-wetting fanny. PTSD indeed.

 

My mate said to me the other day; ' if we were 9 points behind with 15 to play for, would you fancy us getting in?'. The answer is of course not. It's just hard for me to shift my mentality - hopefully will come in a year or two when we continue to win games  

[Nine]

Imagine this place if we are ever top of the table with 4 games to go.. holy shit 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Of course I'm nervous, I'm just trusting in maths. We're in a better position than our competitors and we're playing well. Logically speaking we'll do it. 

 

The games will run out and, before we know it, it'll be done. 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by AyeDubbleYoo

[Dr.Spaceman]

9 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Of course I'm nervous, I'm just trusting in maths. We're in a better position than our competitors and we're playing well. Logically speaking we'll do it. 

 

The games will run out and, before we know it, it'll be done. 

 

 

 

 

I'm thoroughly enjoying watching Liverpool, Man Utd and Spurs hoping they don't win. It still feels incredibly refreshing to me

[wormy]

My way of settling the nerves in the background is to remind myself that if we fuck it up from here, we didn't deserve to make it anyway.

 

Plus we're in Europe no matter what, even if we have a wait a while longer to hear our lads come out to that blessed tune.

[Wallsendmag]

7 hours ago, The Fountain said:

Why put a double on? They're on different days. You can get 2/7 Fulham, 1/2 Brentford, 8/13 Leicester, I'd guess 4/7 Villa, 1/3 Southampton. That's 11/2.

 

It's possible that bet comes in and we still make CL.

 

Could only find their next 2 fixtures on Bet365.

[timeEd32]

The thing that should really settle the nerves is the future of the football club isn't at stake*. We were lucky to bounce back quickly from both relegations. I'm not sure where we'd be if we were in the Championship this season with Mike Ashley still here. The Ashley era was grim, but it honestly could have been much worse if not for Hughton, Rafa, and some of the players in those seasons.

 

We now have a team with the togetherness of the Hughton Championship squad, but with real talent and a wonderful manager. I look forward to every single one of our games and in many cases I don't want them to end. We're on track for one of the 15 or so best seasons in the history of NUFC and it's not going to be a one-hit wonder. There are people behind the scenes working to improve every single aspect of the club. We may do bigger and better things in the future, but I'm certain the 2022/23 season will be remembered as a favorite alongside the Keegan and SBR years. 

 

* In some ways it is of course because CL football would greatly accelerate plans, but regardless the future is bright. 

[Kid Icarus]

I was 100x more nervous in the run up to the final like, this all felt a bit nervy before the Spurs match but I haven't felt all that nervous since the end of the first minute of that.

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Kid Icarus

[wormy]

The height of my nerves was definitely pre-Spurs.

 

Iwas gagging for the League Cup but I don't think I ever truly believed with the run each team was on and our history in finals.

[Chicken Dancer]

Everton away (I know!!!) was the height of my nerves. Always believed we'd beat Spurs and Southampton. Even Man Utd at the start of April I had that good feeling that we'd do them.

 

Arsenal is a worry, but it definitely plays into our hands they need to win. Any points dropped they know they're done, whereas we can afford to lose a game.

[HaydnNUFC]

Same, could hardly sleep before the Spurs game. Was fine for the cup final up to an hour before kick off as I expected us to lose throughout the entire build up to it. And to be a miserable twat I hated the build up to it tbh.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Arsenals performance yesterday may have done us a favour.

 

The first half will ensure that there is no complacency in our ranks - despite the previous 3 games they are still a v. good team and other than against City have played well for large parts of all their recent games.

 

The second half will have the front line licking their lips that the defence can be got at.

 

Likely scenario is that City will be 4 clear at kick off, its do or die time for Arsenal and I'm not convinced that they have enough war wounds to react positively to it.

 

Quick start, 1-0 up within the first 10 and we'll win.

 

On a related note - is there a record anywhere of the average timing for the first goal in games across seasons? Seems to be a lot of very quick goal scoring starts in the league this year

[The Prophet]

The turning point for me was the win at Brentford. To come out of that week with nine points, including victories over Man United and away at Griffin Park was a statement of intent and proved we had overcome our blip.

[timeEd32]

26 minutes ago, HaydnNUFC said:

Same, could hardly sleep before the Spurs game. Was fine for the cup final up to an hour before kick off as I expected us to lose throughout the entire build up to it. And to be a miserable twat I hated the build up to it tbh.

 

I think while they obviously enjoyed it some of the team were probably relieved when it was over too. Longstaff's quotes about the lead up to it, sorting out tickets, etc. Probably worst for him and Burn. We were also just not in good form at the time. 

[HaydnNUFC]

3 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

I think while they obviously enjoyed it some of the team were probably relieved when it was over too. Longstaff's quotes about the lead up to it, sorting out tickets, etc. Probably worst for him and Burn. We were also just not in good form at the time. 

 

Everything about the season in that month or so after the Southampton semi final win was all about it, you just couldn't escape it. 

 

"You got a ticket?"

"You getting train or driving down?"

"Hope he's alright for the final"

"Hope he's not injured for the final"

"Hope he's not suspended for the final"

"We played shite today because they're all thinking about the final" 

"Letters from parents ahead of the final"

 

It just got boring and the league form took a bit of a hit which put a huge dampener on it. Annoying thing is, until we actually get a trophy won that's what finals are going to be like every time. 

[TRon]

51 minutes ago, wormy said:

The height of my nerves was definitely pre-Spurs.

 

Iwas gagging for the League Cup but I don't think I ever truly believed with the run each team was on and our history in finals.

 

Same here. Didn't really feel nervous for the cup final because we had hit the buffers, and we had lost a bit of confidence while Man U were on their best run of form. The cup final just came at the wrong time for us, if we were playing that game now I'd expect us to win it.

[Keegans Export]

3 hours ago, 54 said:

Ideal scenario is:

Fulham beat Liverpool this evening.

Man United beat Brighton tomorrow.

Brentford get altleast a point against Liverpool on Saturday.

We beat Arsenal on Sunday.

Brighton drop points against Everton on Monday.

 

That happens, we're guaranteed Champions League Football next season.

I'm not sure my nerves could hold long enough but imagine the atmosphere if we beat Brighton on the 18th to secure top four...

[Nobody]

I said beat Spurs and I'll start to believe, beat Everton and it's looking likely and best Saints and it's nearly a done deal.

I'll mostly stick to that, but I had expected Liverpool to drop some points in that time, so Im not quite at the 'done deal' point yet. Would love to see Liverpool drop points tonight and us to get something at the weekend like

[The College Dropout]

Didn't really get nerves.

 

I didn't think it would happen until suddenly we had 9 points from 9 against Man U, West Ham and Brentford.

 

Then it was.. well if we beat Spurs.... then it's ours to lose.

[The College Dropout]

I would love for Brighton & Liverpool to drop points before Arsenal as that would mean a win basically secures CL football.

 

16:30 Sunday fixture the crowd willl be rocking with that on the line.

[Decky]

3 minutes ago, The College Dropout said:

I would love for Brighton & Liverpool to drop points before Arsenal as that would mean a win basically secures CL football.

 

16:30 Sunday fixture the crowd willl be rocking with that on the line.

 

If Liverpool are 3 behind us it could be a nervy crowd too if Arsenal score first. There's a million ways this could go, just need to take things on a game by game basis but we really should see it through. 

[SUPERTOON]

I said if we get 7 points from Spurs, Everton and Southampton we would do it. Obviously we got 9 and i am still not confident 😂

[AyeDubbleYoo]

6 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

I said if we get 7 points from Spurs, Everton and Southampton we would do it. Obviously we got 9 and i am still not confident 😂

 

I mean, exactly

 

We will do it, just shame we won't be able to relax until it's over. 

 

I'm trying to enjoy every game though, I was just expecting meaningless mid-table by this point. And there won't be many times when football is just enjoyable without anything to complain about. It's a very rare time. 

[The Prophet]

8 minutes ago, Decky said:

 

If Liverpool are 3 behind us it could be a nervy crowd too if Arsenal score first. There's a million ways this could go, just need to take things on a game by game basis but we really should see it through. 

 

Out of interest, if we were talking about Team A and Team B (definitely not Newcastle and Liverpool):

 

Both Team A and Team B have 5 games left with 15 points to play for.

Team A have 9 more points than Team B.

Team A have +11 goal difference on Team B.

Team A have won 8 of their last 9 games.

Team B have won 4 in a row.

Team A have 3 home games remaining. 

Team B have 3 home games remaining.

Both Team A and Team B's remaining away games are v teams in the bottom half.

 

How much of a chance would you give Team B of finishing above Team A?

[Decky]

8 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Out of interest, if we were talking about Team A and Team B (definitely not Newcastle and Liverpool):

 

Both Team A and Team B have 5 games left with 15 points to play for.

Team A have 9 more points than Team B.

Team A have +11 goal difference on Team B.

Team A have won 8 of their last 9 games.

Team B have won 4 in a row.

Team A have 3 home games remaining. 

Team B have 3 home games remaining.

Both Team A and Team B's remaining away games are v teams in the bottom half.

 

How much of a chance would you give Team B of finishing above Team A?

 

I find it hard to simplify it like that though, and I'm sure part of the reason is because I'm not used to us being in this position and pessimism is part of the culture of us supporting Newcastle in recent history pre-takeover. But one of these teams is Liverpool who absolutely no one would be surprised if they won all their last games.

 

Liverpool have been below their normal standards this season but this time a year ago they were going for the quadruple so they've got the ability and seem to be kicking into gear a bit. We have to assume they'll get 71 points and make 72 our bare minimum. We have tough games against Arsenal and Brighton, a potential banana skin away to a side with a new manager taking his first home game. I know Big Sam is shite but football never works like that, Dyce got something from Arsenal in his first home game this season for example. Away to Chelsea can't be relied upon either. There's still plenty to do before we can say this is done but I do think it will be if Liverpool fail to win even just one of their remaining games. Hopefully that happens tonight. 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Decky