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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

628 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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41 minutes ago, Kaizero said:

 

The best possible set of fixtures at this stage of the season would've always been mid-table teams just waiting to go on holiday. Teams with something to play for (trying to avoid relegation/European Qualification) are all much larger potential banana skins.

 

I've nowt to back it up with but I reckon thats a bit of a myth. Thinking about our two relegations we slid hopelessly towards relegation and couldnt buy a win. There'll be some teams pull it out the bag, but all in all they're down there because theyre worse than the rest of the league. 

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1 hour ago, Superior Acuña said:

We won as many in a week as we’ve lost in the season.

It's an absolutely astounding statistic that out of 29 league games played we've lost only three.

In the club's entire history in the top division we have never lost fewer than eight in a season 

 

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33 minutes ago, Doctor Zaius said:

 

I've nowt to back it up with but I reckon thats a bit of a myth. Thinking about our two relegations we slid hopelessly towards relegation and couldnt buy a win. There'll be some teams pull it out the bag, but all in all they're down there because theyre worse than the rest of the league. 

 

Oh, not saying that there's not some teams that are destined for the drop. But we all know that a few sometimes pull off a "great escape", those clubs are the potential banana skins. We might cruise through the lot, just saying I'd feel more certain we'd not slip up if the teams we were facing were already on holiday mentally and had nothing to lose or win going into our fixture. If we're lucky, none of the teams we play are on some great escape shit when we face them.

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I'm a believer in the "on the beach" theory. However, all it means is that midtable teams are not at their best. It's also part of a bigger pattern of there being a good time to play someone. Anyone who played Villa before Emery got an easy ride. As did teams who played us during the Bruno suspension, which wasn't even off a league game. There's also the Thurs/Sun Europa League thing, which West Ham have taken into a relegation battle.

 

My own fixture of doom would away at a promoted team on first day of the season. Full squad available, fully motivated, crowd massively up for it, media urging them on. Play the same fixture in late November and they'll probably be demoralized, three or four out to injury, their manager on Sack Watch, and the media expecting a bloodbath.

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What are we looking at as a points total? Like what’s the average for 4th place? 
 

As in my head, 12 more points would see us secure CL football. Which coincidentally, that is what I got when being fairly pessimistic and cautious predicting results in our remaining games. 
 

Considering we have just won 5 on the spin and confidence is sky high. 3-4 wins out of 9 seems easily doable. 

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47 minutes ago, Lush Vlad said:

What are we looking at as a points total? Like what’s the average for 4th place? 
 

As in my head, 12 more points would see us secure CL football. Which coincidentally, that is what I got when being fairly pessimistic and cautious predicting results in our remaining games. 
 

Considering we have just won 5 on the spin and confidence is sky high. 3-4 wins out of 9 seems easily doable. 

 

Points total for 4th for the last 5 years have been 71, 67, 66, 71, 75. So 70 will see you have a decent chance of qualifying, granted it isn't a guarantee. 

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1 hour ago, The Prophet said:

 

Points total for 4th for the last 5 years have been 71, 67, 66, 71, 75. So 70 will see you have a decent chance of qualifying, granted it isn't a guarantee. 


it’s 5th place you need to look at, the highest 5th place points total in the last 5 years has been 70 (4 and 5 years ago), typically mid to high 60s. You’d be unlucky to miss out if you hit 68 points

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Just now, Colos Short and Curlies said:


it’s 5th place you need to look at, the highest 5th place points total in the last 5 years has been 70 (4 and 5 years ago), typically mid to high 60s. You’d be unlucky to miss out if you hit 68 points

 

:thup:

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I'm now an "Aye" and a "10".

 

Cannot see us not doing it. My prediction is;

 

Villa - Draw

Spurs - Draw

Everton - Win

Southampton - Win

Arsenal - Draw

Leeds - Win

Leicester - Win

Chelsea - Draw

Brighton - Draw

 

17 points thus finishing on 73. I see Spurs getting 16 more - maximum, and they're 3 behind us already (69). I reckon Man United will pip us to the post for 3rd and end up with around 20 / 23 points from their remaining games (76/79) but Europe and FA Cup pending they might slip up once or twice so that leaves that more open.

 

We're the most consistent side of those three at present though with 5 wins from the last 5, the same as both title contenders. Factoring in we beat Man United and Brentford in 2 of those 5 suggests we're doing extremely well and have found our form. Squad is looking better, deeper and more capable too. I think you'll see us throw less caution to the wind too though in this last run, we have nowt to lose, so games where they may have been draws may turn into the occasional win. At the end of the day one win is better than two draws...

 

We shall see. We will be as pragmatic and focused as ever.

 

One thing for certain, we need to pinch ourselves :lol:

 

 

Edited by Heron

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Win or don’t lose the key games (Villa/Spurs/Brighton) still priority. Think we will do well in all our home games as the crowd will be a factor. All our away games are very tricky. If we beat Spurs that could be another massive last momentum shift.

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33 minutes ago, LFEE said:

Win or don’t lose the key games (Villa/Spurs/Brighton) still priority. Think we will do well in all our home games as the crowd will be a factor. All our away games are very tricky. If we beat Spurs that could be another massive last momentum shift.

Beat Spurs and don't lose to Brighton and it's done. They'd have to get at least 7 more points than us from 7 games...

 

 

Edited by Heron

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I can see the Spurs game being similar to Arsenal at home last season and Man United last week , we will just steamroller all over them and they won’t know how to cope with us , very confident we win that .

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1 minute ago, Geogaddi said:

I can see the Spurs game being similar to Arsenal at home last season and Man United last week , we will just steamroller all over them and they won’t know how to cope with us , very confident we win that .

This! ???

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12 hours ago, Kaizero said:

 

The best possible set of fixtures at this stage of the season would've always been mid-table teams just waiting to go on holiday. Teams with something to play for (trying to avoid relegation/European Qualification) are all much larger potential banana skins.

And bottom teams more likely to pack the box and go for a point. Still, get the Villa game out of the way and if we win that then my confidence goes up ten fold.

 

 

Edited by Gawalls

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We need 4 points out of our next 2 games. You would assume Spurs would beat Bournemouth, so we need to match that result and then do not lose against them at home.

From then on it’s ours.

It would be amazing if Bournemouth can decide that they want to stay up and beat Spurs though.

 

 

Edited by Stifler

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