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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

629 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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17 minutes ago, McCormick said:

I think it’ll go to the last day. Would suck really hard if Chelsea uncharacteristically show up for that match.

I’ll have to disappear that day if that’s the case, the nerves would be unbearable.

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I’m hoping it’s done before Chelsea away because even though they’re shite this season, when do we ever beat them away from home….. Going there needing to win would not be something I wanna put myself through! If we perform how we have been all season then, it will be done by then surely 

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If it goes to the last match it will be excruciating for sure, but not unwatchably so. I could live with us losing as it would still have been an incredible season and achievement so early in our journey back.

 

The league cup was more important to me to win than qualifying for CL, and even that did not hurt as much as I thought it would, due to the immense pride I still had in the team.

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8 hours ago, Kanji said:

Why do we always bloody play Everton on a weekday night? So we will have gone to that city twice this season and under lights 

 

 

 

Sadly the fixture computer isn’t as random as people think. It’s filled with certain info via the TV companies, Police and local councils that the chances of certain fixtures becoming repetitive and following a pattern quite high. 

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12 minutes ago, LFEE said:

Sadly the fixture computer isn’t as random as people think. It’s filled with certain info via the TV companies, Police and local councils that the chances of certain fixtures becoming repetitive and following a pattern quite high. 

Indeed.

 

Buzzing to be going back to Burnley on a Monday night next season….

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Providing Saturday was a blip, a bad day at the office or whatever you want to call it, I still think we're looking at a worst case scenario of top five, but we still have a very good chance of top four. 

 

We have eight fixtures left. Four of the bottom five, three in the top six and a midtable floater. Crucially the three top six teams all come to SJP. Looing at it objectively, it's a mixed bag of fixtures, but one where we should be able to keep up our points average of circa 1.8 points per game and hit the 70 point mark. That'd require either five wins, or four wins and a couple of draws, so we even have space for a slip up or two. 

 

The reason I say 70 point a is because of how much work everyone else has to do to hit that.

 

Spurs are three points behind with a game less to play. To hit 70 points they'd require six wins or five wins and two draw from their last seven. There isn't much margin for error. Their next three are us (a), Man United (h), Liverpool (a). So to hit 70 points they'd need at least a five point haul there. 

 

Villa are six points back with a game less to play. To hit 70 points they'd need to win all of their remaining games. They still have trips to Old Trafford and Anfield, along with hosting Spurs and Brighton.

 

Brighton are arguably our biggest threat, but to hit the 70 point mark they'd need 21 points from nine games, including games against the entire top six. With their fixture pile up it's going to be a tough to churn out and average of more than two points a game. 

 

Finally Liverpool are the rank outsiders. Like Villa, they'd pretty much need to win all of their remaining games to hit the 70 point mark. They have kind fixtures and very decent home form, but they just can't be trusted on the road regardless of who they play. They've already slipped up at Forest, Everton, Bournemouth, Wolves and Palace this season.

 

The tl;dr is that if we hit 70 points, it's incredibly likely we'll be in the Champions League to next season. Other sides either have too much work to do to hit that target, more difficult fixtures or fixture pile-up. I have no doubt there's twists and turns to come, but another 4-5 wins should do the trick. 

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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@The Prophet agreed and always been the case. 
 

We need to beat Spurs. it’s such a crucial game. 

 

 

Beat Spurs we need 9-11 points from 7.  With 4 games against bottom 6 teams, we should get that comfortably. 
 

If we beat Spurs. Another team need to be shit hot and us to fall apart to finish below 4th. 
 

Beat Spurs. ASM back. Avoid major injuries.  9/10. 
 

 

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Just now, KDT said:

What data are Opta using to say we've got a 84% chance of top 4?

remaining fixture difficulty I would imagine

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9 minutes ago, KDT said:

What data are Opta using to say we've got a 84% chance of top 4?

 

Everything of relevance that's available to them, probably? We were at almost 88% before the weekend.

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Spurs could (should?) be out of the equation after the next 2 weekends (plus midweek round of games). You can see them losing all 3 with their current implosion and we've a damn good chance of picking up 3 wins.

 

Villa will do well to pick up 5 points from their next 3 (draws away to Brentford and ManU, win at home v Fulham) which would put them 11 behind us - even with a win at Brentford they would be 9 behind with 12 to play for.

 

Brighton don't play as may games with only a home game to Wolves. They'd have games in hand but a gap of 16 points with 24 to play for you'd think is too much.

 

So 6:30pm 30th April we can crack open the champagne

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Just now, Shadow Puppets said:

I haven't followed the Champions League closely in years... do 4th place still have to go through a qualifying stage in order to reach the group stages?

 

No, all 4 are straight into the groups.

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5 minutes ago, Decky said:
6 minutes ago, Shadow Puppets said:

haven't followed the Champions League closely in years... do 4th place still have to go through a qualifying stage in order to reach the group stages?

 

No, all 4 are straight into the groups.

 

Didn't know that. Absolutely ridiculous tbh.  

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2 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

 

Didn't know that. Absolutely ridiculous tbh.  

 

Same in Germany, Italy and Spain too. Plus at the end of the next season 5th might do it as well. :lol: 

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12 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

I’m convinced if we get 7 points from the next 3 then we will do it. We really should be targeting 9 points from them as well.

Ironically, its the Everton away game i'm most scared about, Thursday night, under the lights, Goodison always has great atmosphere, Dyche ball. 

 

Seems a recipe for disaster :lol: 

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1 minute ago, 54 said:

Ironically, its the Everton away game i'm most scared about, Thursday night, under the lights, Goodison always has great atmosphere, Dyche ball. 

 

Seems a recipe for disaster :lol: 

Same. After last season's debacle, not looking forward to that at all

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1 hour ago, 54 said:

Ironically, its the Everton away game i'm most scared about, Thursday night, under the lights, Goodison always has great atmosphere, Dyche ball. 

 

Seems a recipe for disaster :lol: 

 

It's a hard fixture, but if we want CL then those are the ones we will have to win somehow. If we can't then I will resign myself that we were punching all season anyway. The Villa game has really been a wake up call, hope we respond with all guns firing against Spurs this weekend.

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