Newcastle United 4-1 Paris Saint-Germain (04/10/23)

[Cf]

41 minutes ago, Wullie said:

 

Yeah I thought that when I saw our xG was exactly 1.00.

 

Between Burn, Almiron, Isak (before the Almiron goal) and Longstaff that just seems bizarre to me.

 

I was thinking about the Isak/Almiron spot. Could you end up with one goal essentially having an xG higher than 1 because each chance was > 0.5 even though in reality you can only score one goal from the chance as a whole?

[Wolfcastle]

6 minutes ago, Big Geordie said:

Ando for the 3rd and 4th goal

I'd be disappointed if he wasn't cackling like VIncent Price the background after a fourth or fifth now.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Wolfcastle

[Wullie]

5 minutes ago, Cf said:

 

I was thinking about the Isak/Almiron spot. Could you end up with one goal essentially having an xG higher than 1 because each chance was > 0.5 even though in reality you can only score one goal from the chance as a whole?

I believe so but one for the nerds @Rich

[gbandit]

Has to be surely, the different chances are calculated completely independent of one another no?

[Hovagod]

Michael Cox: ‘I think we have to give Newcastle some credit.’

 

Sorry about that, Michael. 

[Adam]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_newcastle

 

Game commentary starts at 18:06

[Pancrate1892]

1 hour ago, RodneyCisse said:

It’s the Mayfair which is full of daft bairns on match day.

Avoid the place like the plague 

[SteV]

9 minutes ago, Adam said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_newcastle

 

Game commentary starts at 18:06

@Disco

[GeordieDazzler]

10 minutes ago, Hovagod said:

Michael Cox: ‘I think we have to give Newcastle some credit.’

 

Sorry about that, Michael. 

he’s the most insufferable tactics creep going 

[NE27]

11 minutes ago, Adam said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_newcastle

 

Game commentary starts at 18:06

 

I felt that longstaff celebration like, total disbelief and euphoria just coming out in what you can only describe as orgasms from the three of them.

[Numbers]

Are the club not allowed to put any highlights/matchcams out for this or something, usually out by now.

[Skeletor]

3 minutes ago, Numbers said:

Are the club not allowed to put any highlights/matchcams out for this or something, usually out by now.

 

 

[Pokerprince2004]

25 minutes ago, Adam said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_newcastle

 

Game commentary starts at 18:06

 

Thanks for that! 

 

Love the roar from Ando when Longstaff and Schar scored 

[GeordieDazzler]

5 minutes ago, Numbers said:

Are the club not allowed to put any highlights/matchcams out for this or something, usually out by now.

I assume as a stakeholder in the Prem we have a lot more say in what we can do and put out. UEFA probably can’t bare the thought not being able to take their cut of a minute bit of ad revenue.

[timeEd32]

40 minutes ago, Cf said:

 

I was thinking about the Isak/Almiron spot. Could you end up with one goal essentially having an xG higher than 1 because each chance was > 0.5 even though in reality you can only score one goal from the chance as a whole?

 

There are different models out there, so it may depend and this is an area that has been evolving. Isak's and Almiron's shots can be evaluated in isolation in terms of the opportunity for each, but as a team Newcastle could only score one goal from that sequence which is accounted for in adjusted xG.

 

From FBref, which uses Opta:

 

Quote

In some cases, a player or team's xG totals do not equal the sum of their shots. For instance, a team may attempt multiple shots in a single possession, but it is likely that these shots are contingent upon the outcome of the previous shot(s).

 

Take for example, this match between Schalke 04 and Nürnberg:

 

In the 78th minute, Nürnberg attempted three shots which ultimately led to a goal. Hanno Behrens attempts a shot that is saved, but he is able to take a second shot as the ball is deflected off the defender. The second shot goes off the woodwork, which allows Adam Zreľák to easily tap it in. According to Opta's expected goals model:

 

- Behrens' first shot with the goalkeeper in his way = .41 xG

- Behrens' second shot with the goalkeeper out of position but a defender in the way = .47 xG

- Zreľák's shot with an open net = .79 xG

 

The sum of these three shots is 1.67 expected goals, even though it is impossible to score more than one goal in a single move. To solve this problem, we find the probability that the defending team does not allow a goal in this possession. In this case, the calculation is:

 

(1 - .41) x (1 - .47) x (1 - .79) = .0657 or a 6.57% probability that Schalke does not allow a goal.

 

To find Nürnberg's xG, we simply subtract that probability from 1:

1 - .0657 = .9343 xG

 

In other words, we estimate that an average team in a similar situation would be expected to score a goal 93.43% of the time.

 

We use a similar method when calculating xG for individual players. Adam Zreľák receives .79 xG from his single shot while Hanno Behrens receives:

1 - (1 - .41) x (1 - .47) = .6873 xG

 

This shows why a team or player's total xG may not equal the sum of the xG from their shots and why a team's total xG may not equal the sum of the xG from their players.

 

So if that was Nurnberg's only attack the whole game they would end with a team xG of 0.93, but they'd have a player with an xG of 0.79 and a player with an xG of 0.69.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by timeEd32

[Adam]

Just now, Pokerprince2004 said:

 

Thanks for that! 

 

Love the roar from Ando when Longstaff and Schar scored 

 

I've already recorded it, will find somewhere to host it later. 

[PauloGeordio]

7 minutes ago, Numbers said:

Are the club not allowed to put any highlights/matchcams out for this or something, usually out by now.

Apparently 48hrs afterwards due to UEFA rules! 10 2mow night is the Ando fest  

[Charlies]

14 minutes ago, Numbers said:

Are the club not allowed to put any highlights/matchcams out for this or something, usually out by now.

should be out later tonight if what I read is correct, like an addict waiting for a hit here. 

[Bally21]

I have visions of that lad with the drum right now, sat in the spare room of his house in Paris, practicing for PSGs match on Sunday, and his wife sat watching TV muttering the French equivalent of "for fucks sake I'd wish he'd give the cunt a rest with that drum".

[Big Geordie]

I thought the drum was great last night - added to the atmosphere.

[gbandit]

Was in the standing section so didn’t really hear it that much apart from in the quieter moments. Had no idea it was as loud as others have made out. I would never want us to have a drum but it’s quite nice as a change up for opposition fans to bring one 

[Bally21]

5 minutes ago, Big Geordie said:

I thought the drum was great last night - added to the atmosphere.

Definitely, we kind of fed off it aswell, but his missus must hate it.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Bally21

[Bally21]

8 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Was in the standing section so didn’t really hear it that much apart from in the quieter moments. Had no idea it was as loud as others have made out. I would never want us to have a drum but it’s quite nice as a change up for opposition fans to bring one 

I'm in the leazes, it was loud, fair play to the Lad, and indeed their fans, kept at it solid for 90 minutes, only our 4th took the wind out their sails.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Bally21

[Scoot]

 

[Mazzy]

35 minutes ago, Big Geordie said:

I thought the drum was great last night - added to the atmosphere.

 

I agree. Always a fine line with drummer as to whether they make the game feel very European or like a shit England game away to Moldova. Think it was decent yesterday though.