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I don't know how representative of general opinion this forum is, but when I read threads like this I do worry about another post-Keegan meltdown, which won't do anyone any good.

 

This will no doubt fall on deaf ears, but can I point out two things -

 

Having an aim of finishing in the top ten means that 10th place is the minimum standard. It doesn't mean that you don't care whether you finish higher.

 

Prioritising the League against the Cups is what every Premiership club and most Championship clubs do. The only difference is that the club acknowledged it when asked a direct question in a fans forum.

 

We already know what Ashley's strategy is, because it was made clear at the start. He won't pay over the odds for established players - he'll go for young players who can be developed or players at the end of their contracts. The club itself will not run at a loss.

 

It's a long-term strategy. I'm not sure how well it will work, but unless you're prepared to pay huge amounts of money, there's no quick way of getting beyond the point we're at at this moment. The boom and bust Freddie Shepherd way is not the better alternative.

 

 

Not sure most fans are unhappy with our scouting at present or our transfer philosophy, we were 3-4 signings away from fighting for the top 4 in my opinion without the big money signings.

 

The issue is there is now no transfer plan other then to sell for profit and the club in generally has no direction or actual ambition - this is shown clearly by the appointment and sticking with a sub standard manager and back room team.

 

In the most part we have a team of internationals yet a coaching setup sub League 1, we have no identity on the pitch and we are slowly loosing out identity off also.

 

Personally don't agree that its about returning to the boom and bust era of Shepard but atleast showing some controlled ambition on all fronts, starting with a new manager who can mould a team that actually knows what they are doing once they cross that line.

 

I don’t think the club lacks ambition, but they are cautious and pragmatic in their approach. In contrast, the fans of every football club are energised by dreams of glory, and what the club have said does cut against that. No-one dreams of finishing 10th.

 

The trouble with putting a dreamer like Fernandez or Ridsdale in charge is that it will eventually go belly-up, unless you’re something of a bottomless pit of money , like Abramovich.  So every club, bar the exceptional, has to have some kind of financial discipline.

 

The problem with Shepherd was that he spent all the club could possibly afford in terms of debt, we got a break and made the CL, but then there was nothing left to push on with. The second season we made the CL places, all we could buy was  Bowyer on a free. Then there was the inevitable slip backwards.

 

The aim has to be that if we get that bit of luck and make the top four in the future, we’re in a sufficiently healthy position financially that we can take advantage, and not come to a full stop. Youth development, hitherto neglected, is another part of being in a good financial state when opportunity arises.

 

So in the absence of a Mansour, I’m not yet convinced that Ashley’s general strategy is wrong. He’s made some poor decisions, the latest being Kinnear, but overall I’m prepared to give things a bit longer.

 

I wouldn’t say Pardew is sub-standard incidentally, but that’s another debate.

 

This is not a terribly wrong account of what's going on, it's just that you are mistaken when it comes to ambition and motivation, I believe.

 

Now, this is all speculation, but the way I see it, Ashely's main 'ambition' at this point in time is to recoup his investment, so the aim is to turn in a profit.

 

From a purely economic standpoint, the safest way to achieve that seems to be mid-table mediocrity. The biggest source of income for the club is media revenue (if I'm not mistaken, roughly 60% of turnover in the latest accounts), which is fairly evenly distributed among Premier League teams, and is only partially affected by the league position as long as the club stays in the league (more on this later). The second is match-day income, which of course may decline due to bad performance on the pitch, but even after years of under-performing and numerous scandals, a good audience still turns up at SJP every other week, and I'd be surprised if the average attendance would fall below, say, 45,000 in the near future. In short, NUFC has a rather loyal fan base which produces a hefty income that can be taken for granted. Third, commercial revenue may also be affected, but it's a rather small chunk of the pie overall.

So, with the TV money flowing in and people still turning up at SJP, revenues will continue to be relatively healthy.

 

From the expense side, the club is operating with a small squad on comparatively mediocre wages and turns in a profit on the transfer market, so it's on a rather shoestring budget. But it has a decent scouting network, and this allows it to be a selling club while not being in constant threat of relegation, so the TV money is not in danger. Whether this is sustainable on the longer term is debatable, but it seems to be working for now, and Ashely seems to believe in it.

 

Of course, better performance on the pitch may lead to higher revenues, but it would also mean higher costs and risks. And it's not only the one-time costs of buying a number of better players and assembling a bigger squad, but also the constant costs of maintaining that squad and its quality. Realistically, a solid top four spot is 100m+ of one-time investment away, and with the rising constant costs, the rising revenues may not even result in higher profits (we could probably get +40-50m/year provided we get into the CL every year). So, the expected return on investment for this scenario is pretty low (if it's positive at all), and going for it would involve huge risks (i.e. not getting into the CL). Not something you'd like to do if you're after your money.

There's still huge competition for 5-7th place, TV money is not substantially higher, and the EL doesn't bring decent money anyway, so it's just not worth it. In our current position, investing more heavily in the playing squad just doesn't seem to have the potential to improve the profitability of the club substantially. Moreover, focusing on cups would not generate substantially higher revenues, yet it would involve risks as to our league performance, where the TV money is.

 

Now, I'm not saying that this is right this way, but given Ashely's (presumed) motivation, it suits him perfectly. Of course, the performance of the team could be improved by bringing in a half-decent manager and having a more though-out transfer strategy (i.e. buying players to fit the system/team instead of buying every French bargain we can get our hands on -- of course having a system in the first place would help a lot) without spending more, but it has been proven from time to time that Mike Ashely is not very wise when it comes to either footballing or personnel decisions. And playing good football just quite simply isn’t the point for him. So, sadly, I do expect us to stay where we are as long as Ashely is in charge, and that's possibly one of the more positive takes on the near future given his well demonstrated capacity to f*** things up horribly.

 

Thank you for that post, which addresses the points that I was making, even if we don't entirely agree.

 

When I said that I didn't think the club lacked ambition, I meant it in the sense that they're not indifferent to the idea of success, and would like the team to thrive. What others mean by the word strikes me as rather different ie spending more money on players. And achieving success that way is not as simple as all that, as your post acknowledges at various points, I think.

 

Where I think we differ is in our assessment of Ashley's motivation, which I think is more complex and more erratic than is usually stated. I don't think he bought the club purely as a business proposition. I think it was a poorly thought-out impulse buy, by a genuine sports fan. He'd got all that cash from selling part of his business, and the sudden opportunity to buy a major Premiership club was too much to resist. Since then, he's stumbled along, making as many bad decisions as good ones, as the realities of running a club hit home.

 

I certainly think he's fallen out of love with the task. He's had to put in a lot of money which he's unlikely to recoup, and he's determined not to lose any more. I also think a certain mentality has crept in, along the lines of I'm going to be unpopular no matter what I do, so I may as well please myself, as with the appointment of Joe Kinnear and the Sports Direct advertising.

 

But I baulk at the idea that where we happen to be at this precise moment is where he was planning to be all along, and where we're necessarily going to stay. Though obviously we need a bit of luck as well as good management to progress.

 

Whether Pardew is good enough, I'm still not sure tbh.

 

His representatives bought the club for him on his behalf for completely non-sporting reasons and ENTIRELY as a business proposition. Why spout random crap that conflicts with what the guy who sold the shares has actually said?

 

I decided to sell my shares because of Abramovich. It took me just over two years. I was in negotiations with some Malaysians when I got a call from another group. They wanted to meet me in London prior to my meeting with the Malaysians. I agreed.

 

I was met at Kings Cross and taken by Rolls Royce to Freshfields and into a packed meeting room where this unnamed parties financial representatives began to make me an offer. I told them that I would honour my meeting with the Malaysians so could not give them an answer. They tried their best to persuade me otherwise but I’m a man of my word.

 

The meeting with the Malaysians went well but they wanted 6 weeks to do due diligence. The offer from the other party at Freshfields waived that right and was a better deal. I was told that the man behind the deal was Mike Ashley and I sat with his representatives over 3 days thrashing out a deal. I was keen to know why they wanted the club and they were quite honest. They wanted to market their sports goods in the Far East and would use the Club to help do this.

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Some of Newcastle Online's worst ever posts over the last three pages. Neesy celebrates as he slips out of the top ten.

 

I haven't read them, all that needs saying is that he's a useless unambitious fat bastard who has no interest in us other than that we shouldn't cost him another penny.  Anything else is way over the top and a waste of words and time to type and read.

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I don't know how representative of general opinion this forum is, but when I read threads like this I do worry about another post-Keegan meltdown, which won't do anyone any good.

 

This will no doubt fall on deaf ears, but can I point out two things -

 

Having an aim of finishing in the top ten means that 10th place is the minimum standard. It doesn't mean that you don't care whether you finish higher.

 

Prioritising the League against the Cups is what every Premiership club and most Championship clubs do. The only difference is that the club acknowledged it when asked a direct question in a fans forum.

 

We already know what Ashley's strategy is, because it was made clear at the start. He won't pay over the odds for established players - he'll go for young players who can be developed or players at the end of their contracts. The club itself will not run at a loss.

 

It's a long-term strategy. I'm not sure how well it will work, but unless you're prepared to pay huge amounts of money, there's no quick way of getting beyond the point we're at at this moment. The boom and bust Freddie Shepherd way is not the better alternative.

 

 

Not sure most fans are unhappy with our scouting at present or our transfer philosophy, we were 3-4 signings away from fighting for the top 4 in my opinion without the big money signings.

 

The issue is there is now no transfer plan other then to sell for profit and the club in generally has no direction or actual ambition - this is shown clearly by the appointment and sticking with a sub standard manager and back room team.

 

In the most part we have a team of internationals yet a coaching setup sub League 1, we have no identity on the pitch and we are slowly loosing out identity off also.

 

Personally don't agree that its about returning to the boom and bust era of Shepard but atleast showing some controlled ambition on all fronts, starting with a new manager who can mould a team that actually knows what they are doing once they cross that line.

 

I don’t think the club lacks ambition, but they are cautious and pragmatic in their approach. In contrast, the fans of every football club are energised by dreams of glory, and what the club have said does cut against that. No-one dreams of finishing 10th.

 

The trouble with putting a dreamer like Fernandez or Ridsdale in charge is that it will eventually go belly-up, unless you’re something of a bottomless pit of money , like Abramovich.  So every club, bar the exceptional, has to have some kind of financial discipline.

 

The problem with Shepherd was that he spent all the club could possibly afford in terms of debt, we got a break and made the CL, but then there was nothing left to push on with. The second season we made the CL places, all we could buy was  Bowyer on a free. Then there was the inevitable slip backwards.

 

The aim has to be that if we get that bit of luck and make the top four in the future, we’re in a sufficiently healthy position financially that we can take advantage, and not come to a full stop. Youth development, hitherto neglected, is another part of being in a good financial state when opportunity arises.

 

So in the absence of a Mansour, I’m not yet convinced that Ashley’s general strategy is wrong. He’s made some poor decisions, the latest being Kinnear, but overall I’m prepared to give things a bit longer.

 

I wouldn’t say Pardew is sub-standard incidentally, but that’s another debate.

 

This is not a terribly wrong account of what's going on, it's just that you are mistaken when it comes to ambition and motivation, I believe.

 

Now, this is all speculation, but the way I see it, Ashely's main 'ambition' at this point in time is to recoup his investment, so the aim is to turn in a profit.

 

From a purely economic standpoint, the safest way to achieve that seems to be mid-table mediocrity. The biggest source of income for the club is media revenue (if I'm not mistaken, roughly 60% of turnover in the latest accounts), which is fairly evenly distributed among Premier League teams, and is only partially affected by the league position as long as the club stays in the league (more on this later). The second is match-day income, which of course may decline due to bad performance on the pitch, but even after years of under-performing and numerous scandals, a good audience still turns up at SJP every other week, and I'd be surprised if the average attendance would fall below, say, 45,000 in the near future. In short, NUFC has a rather loyal fan base which produces a hefty income that can be taken for granted. Third, commercial revenue may also be affected, but it's a rather small chunk of the pie overall.

So, with the TV money flowing in and people still turning up at SJP, revenues will continue to be relatively healthy.

 

From the expense side, the club is operating with a small squad on comparatively mediocre wages and turns in a profit on the transfer market, so it's on a rather shoestring budget. But it has a decent scouting network, and this allows it to be a selling club while not being in constant threat of relegation, so the TV money is not in danger. Whether this is sustainable on the longer term is debatable, but it seems to be working for now, and Ashely seems to believe in it.

 

Of course, better performance on the pitch may lead to higher revenues, but it would also mean higher costs and risks. And it's not only the one-time costs of buying a number of better players and assembling a bigger squad, but also the constant costs of maintaining that squad and its quality. Realistically, a solid top four spot is 100m+ of one-time investment away, and with the rising constant costs, the rising revenues may not even result in higher profits (we could probably get +40-50m/year provided we get into the CL every year). So, the expected return on investment for this scenario is pretty low (if it's positive at all), and going for it would involve huge risks (i.e. not getting into the CL). Not something you'd like to do if you're after your money.

There's still huge competition for 5-7th place, TV money is not substantially higher, and the EL doesn't bring decent money anyway, so it's just not worth it. In our current position, investing more heavily in the playing squad just doesn't seem to have the potential to improve the profitability of the club substantially. Moreover, focusing on cups would not generate substantially higher revenues, yet it would involve risks as to our league performance, where the TV money is.

 

Now, I'm not saying that this is right this way, but given Ashely's (presumed) motivation, it suits him perfectly. Of course, the performance of the team could be improved by bringing in a half-decent manager and having a more though-out transfer strategy (i.e. buying players to fit the system/team instead of buying every French bargain we can get our hands on -- of course having a system in the first place would help a lot) without spending more, but it has been proven from time to time that Mike Ashely is not very wise when it comes to either footballing or personnel decisions. And playing good football just quite simply isn’t the point for him. So, sadly, I do expect us to stay where we are as long as Ashely is in charge, and that's possibly one of the more positive takes on the near future given his well demonstrated capacity to f*** things up horribly.

 

Thank you for that post, which addresses the points that I was making, even if we don't entirely agree.

 

When I said that I didn't think the club lacked ambition, I meant it in the sense that they're not indifferent to the idea of success, and would like the team to thrive. What others mean by the word strikes me as rather different ie spending more money on players. And achieving success that way is not as simple as all that, as your post acknowledges at various points, I think.

 

Where I think we differ is in our assessment of Ashley's motivation, which I think is more complex and more erratic than is usually stated. I don't think he bought the club purely as a business proposition. I think it was a poorly thought-out impulse buy, by a genuine sports fan. He'd got all that cash from selling part of his business, and the sudden opportunity to buy a major Premiership club was too much to resist. Since then, he's stumbled along, making as many bad decisions as good ones, as the realities of running a club hit home.

 

I certainly think he's fallen out of love with the task. He's had to put in a lot of money which he's unlikely to recoup, and he's determined not to lose any more. I also think a certain mentality has crept in, along the lines of I'm going to be unpopular no matter what I do, so I may as well please myself, as with the appointment of Joe Kinnear and the Sports Direct advertising.

 

But I baulk at the idea that where we happen to be at this precise moment is where he was planning to be all along, and where we're necessarily going to stay. Though obviously we need a bit of luck as well as good management to progress.

 

Whether Pardew is good enough, I'm still not sure tbh.

 

His representatives bought the club for him on his behalf for completely non-sporting reasons and ENTIRELY as a business proposition. Why spout random crap that conflicts with what the guy who sold the shares has actually said?

 

I decided to sell my shares because of Abramovich. It took me just over two years. I was in negotiations with some Malaysians when I got a call from another group. They wanted to meet me in London prior to my meeting with the Malaysians. I agreed.

 

I was met at Kings Cross and taken by Rolls Royce to Freshfields and into a packed meeting room where this unnamed parties financial representatives began to make me an offer. I told them that I would honour my meeting with the Malaysians so could not give them an answer. They tried their best to persuade me otherwise but I’m a man of my word.

 

The meeting with the Malaysians went well but they wanted 6 weeks to do due diligence. The offer from the other party at Freshfields waived that right and was a better deal. I was told that the man behind the deal was Mike Ashley and I sat with his representatives over 3 days thrashing out a deal. I was keen to know why they wanted the club and they were quite honest. They wanted to market their sports goods in the Far East and would use the Club to help do this.

 

And according to Llambias, I think it was, he bought the club because he thought he could sell it at a profit to Arab oil money, and Keegan was appointed with that in mind.

 

I don't doubt that marketing in the Far East could well have been mentioned in a conversation between Sir John Hall and Ashley's representatives, but that's hardly proof that that was the sole reason for the sale. The guy has various ideas in his head, and it's hard to tell which one is most prominent at any given time.

 

At the end of the day, he didn't do due diligence. That's not the action of a man who is solely motivated by money.

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And according to Llambias, I think it was, he bought the club because he thought he could sell it at a profit to Arab oil money, and Keegan was appointed with that in mind.

 

I don't doubt that marketing in the Far East could well have been mentioned in a conversation between Sir John Hall and Ashley's representatives, but that's hardly proof that that was the sole reason for the sale. The guy has various ideas in his head, and it's hard to tell which one is most prominent at any given time.

 

At the end of the day, he didn't do due diligence. That's not the action of a man who is solely motivated by money.

 

Llambias wasn't even around when Ashley bought the club, why should his account of anything be more likely to be the truth?

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http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/mike-ashley-selling-newcastle-would-3174747

Under-fire Mike Ashley will ride out the storm at Newcastle United – unless someone offers him £250million for the club, writes Alan Oliver of the Sunday People.

 

And Sunday People Sport understands the Toon supremo plans a huge shake-up at St James’ Park in the summer.

 

The Magpies go into Sunday's visit of Aston Villa on the back of four league defeats on the bounce at home – with no goals scored.

 

But Ashley plans to keep faith with under-pressure manager Alan Pardew – and will instead strengthen behind the scenes.

 

The Toon owner knows he needs to act decisively after Joe Kinnear’s disastrous spell as director of football.

 

However, it is understood that is unlikely to see a return of former managing director Derek Llambias.

 

But a Newcastle source admitted: “Mike has not had one serious offer for Newcastle and is not looking to sell. But if someone put an offer of £250m on the table he would listen.”

 

Anal. :yao:

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http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/mike-ashley-selling-newcastle-would-3174747

Under-fire Mike Ashley will ride out the storm at Newcastle United – unless someone offers him £250million for the club, writes Alan Oliver of the Sunday People.

 

And Sunday People Sport understands the Toon supremo plans a huge shake-up at St James’ Park in the summer.

 

The Magpies go into Sunday's visit of Aston Villa on the back of four league defeats on the bounce at home – with no goals scored.

 

But Ashley plans to keep faith with under-pressure manager Alan Pardew – and will instead strengthen behind the scenes.

 

The Toon owner knows he needs to act decisively after Joe Kinnear’s disastrous spell as director of football.

 

However, it is understood that is unlikely to see a return of former managing director Derek Llambias.

 

But a Newcastle source admitted: “Mike has not had one serious offer for Newcastle and is not looking to sell. But if someone put an offer of £250m on the table he would listen.”

 

Anal. :yao:

A week ago Anal said that Pardew was 1 game away from the sack and Llambias was coming back, I wonder if this club source is the same one as last week?
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/mike-ashley-selling-newcastle-would-3174747

Under-fire Mike Ashley will ride out the storm at Newcastle United – unless someone offers him £250million for the club, writes Alan Oliver of the Sunday People.

And Sunday People Sport understands the Toon supremo plans a huge shake-up at St James’ Park in the summer.

 

The Magpies go into Sunday's visit of Aston Villa on the back of four league defeats on the bounce at home – with no goals scored.

 

But Ashley plans to keep faith with under-pressure manager Alan Pardew – and will instead strengthen behind the scenes.

 

The Toon owner knows he needs to act decisively after Joe Kinnear’s disastrous spell as director of football.

 

However, it is understood that is unlikely to see a return of former managing director Derek Llambias.

 

But a Newcastle source admitted: “Mike has not had one serious offer for Newcastle and is not looking to sell. But if someone put an offer of £250m on the table he would listen.”

 

Anal. :yao:

so basically what we all knew anyway, insightful journalism

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And according to Llambias, I think it was, he bought the club because he thought he could sell it at a profit to Arab oil money, and Keegan was appointed with that in mind.

 

I don't doubt that marketing in the Far East could well have been mentioned in a conversation between Sir John Hall and Ashley's representatives, but that's hardly proof that that was the sole reason for the sale. The guy has various ideas in his head, and it's hard to tell which one is most prominent at any given time.

 

At the end of the day, he didn't do due diligence. That's not the action of a man who is solely motivated by money.

 

Llambias wasn't even around when Ashley bought the club, why should his account of anything be more likely to be the truth?

 

Don't even think Llambias came out with anything resembling those words. Cronky probably lifted it from some journo and took it as the truth.

 

At the end of the day, he didn't do due diligence. That's not the action of a man who is solely motivated by money.

 

You based everything on an assumption while ignoring all the cold hard facts that proved otherwise. Amazing.

 

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I think both Mike Ashley and Randy Lerner look like owners who are not going to go out of their way to advertise their willingness to sell, lest it affect the purchase price, but would gladly do so if someone offered them enough.

 

Lerner has gone from attending matches home and away (he was even spotted at Scunthorpe in the league cup) and having a Villa tattoo on his ankle, to attending once or twice a year at the most. Mind you, having seen the luke warm sick we get spoon fed week in, week out at home, i don't really blame him.

 

Ashley looks the same, gradual disengagement, with an extra flourish of poor decision making to keep it vaguely interesting.

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I'd honestly be surprised if we win more than one or two games this season. We have some tough games coming up and a poor squad playing under a woeful manager.

 

To me, staying up this year is simply delaying the inevitable relegation of next year. We'll lose the fulcrum of our squad this summer and it's highly unlikely we'll replace all of them, or match that quality. We won't have our jail breakers I.e Cabaye to get us out of trouble anymore. The second half of this season will/has been testement to that.

 

To add insult to a gaping wound, we have te worst manager in the league who will hide behind any excuse he can muster, whilst sucking on Ashley's balls. Can't see any hope for us unless we are sold and a complete overhaul takes place.

 

Fuck me, I am such a negative bastard :lol:

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I'd honestly be surprised if we win more than one or two games this season. We have some tough games coming up and a poor squad playing under a woeful manager.

 

To me, staying up this year is simply delaying the inevitable relegation of next year. We'll lose the fulcrum of our squad this summer and it's highly unlikely we'll replace all of them, or match that quality. We won't have our jail breakers I.e Cabaye to get us out of trouble anymore. The second half of this season will/has been testement to that.

 

To add insult to a gaping wound, we have te worst manager in the league who will hide behind any excuse he can muster, whilst sucking on Ashley's balls. Can't see any hope for us unless we are sold and a complete overhaul takes place.

 

f*** me, I am such a negative b****** :lol:

 

Completely agree with the above. O0

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Guest bimpy474

The guy from the Express spoke well the rest of them backed Ashley as a good owner who runs the club well

 

Clueless wankers, and whore in her case.

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The guy from the Express spoke well the rest of them backed Ashley as a good owner who runs the club well

Sounded a lot like sour grapes after he was banned to me. He then went on to say Pardew was a good coach doing well with his hands tied.  It does make me wonder if these journalists even watch us play.

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We obviously do lack ambition, but most of the rest of that post is basically fact. Main question I have is whether the recent lack of signings is just a blip or if it's a decision to not buy unless we might go down.

 

exactly this, although if the blip doesn't happen, that constitutes SOME ambition

 

A club with ambition maximises its revenues and re-invests in its team. Disagree?

 

I'd go as far as saying that even Leeds and Portsmouth are capable of that. Thank God we're not a Leeds or Portsmouth eh!!

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The guy from the Express spoke well the rest of them backed Ashley as a good owner who runs the club well

Sounded a lot like sour grapes after he was banned to me. He then went on to say Pardew was a good coach doing well with his hands tied.  It does make me wonder if these journalists even watch us play.

 

He said Ashley is running the club well even though the manager's hands are tied?!? I think we can safely file any future articles from him under the category 'clueless jibberish halfwittery'

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