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Relegationometer

Yorkie

by Yorkie
in Football

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Relegationometer  

332 members have voted

  1. 1. We going down then or what? 10 - aye, doomed, no hope of salvation / 5 - can't call it / 0 - nah we're sound, can't wait for next season

    • 0
      20
    • 1
      19
    • 2
      16
    • 3
      18
    • 4
      20
    • 5
      27
    • 6
      22
    • 7
      17
    • 8
      37
    • 9
      25
    • 10
      35

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TRon

TRon

Posted
Posted

I will go .5 to 1, so a 5 to 10% chance. This is still too high for comfort. Last season, NUFC had an horrific finish from this point of the season on, yet the same results from last season in the same time frame would probably see NUFC safe in 99.9% of scenarios. In the final 16 matches of 2013-2014, they managed 13 points (which is obviously relegation form as it would=30 points in 38 matches). A repeat of those results would see them to the mythical number of 40. It would take a collapse of epic proportions and a substantial rise from the bottom teams to relegate NUFC. The past three seasons the 18-th placed team has had 35 points (EDIT:35 points on average), we have 27 and it is January.

 

I am expecting a terrible second half of the season, but I think that was on the cards whether Pardew or Charver was at the helm. Even so it is hard to imagine that we won't get 12 points just going by the law of averages,e specially since we have a squad full of internationals compared to many of the lower half teams. Ashley himself knows this and that is why he is prepared to leave us without a manager for the remainder of the season confident we can pick up the points to keep us safe regardless of who is in charge.

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AyeDubbleYoo

AyeDubbleYoo

Posted
Posted

I will go .5 to 1, so a 5 to 10% chance. This is still too high for comfort. Last season, NUFC had an horrific finish from this point of the season on, yet the same results from last season in the same time frame would probably see NUFC safe in 99.9% of scenarios. In the final 16 matches of 2013-2014, they managed 13 points (which is obviously relegation form as it would=30 points in 38 matches). A repeat of those results would see them to the mythical number of 40. It would take a collapse of epic proportions and a substantial rise from the bottom teams to relegate NUFC. The past three seasons the 18-th placed team has had 35 points (EDIT:35 points on average), we have 27 and it is January.

 

I am expecting a terrible second half of the season, but I think that was on the cards whether Pardew or Charver was at the helm. Even so it is hard to imagine that we won't get 12 points just going by the law of averages,e specially since we have a squad full of internationals compared to many of the lower half teams. Ashley himself knows this and that is why he is prepared to leave us without a manager for the remainder of the season confident we can pick up the points to keep us safe regardless of who is in charge.

 

Same feelings.

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U2

U2

Posted
Posted

I will go .5 to 1, so a 5 to 10% chance. This is still too high for comfort. Last season, NUFC had an horrific finish from this point of the season on, yet the same results from last season in the same time frame would probably see NUFC safe in 99.9% of scenarios. In the final 16 matches of 2013-2014, they managed 13 points (which is obviously relegation form as it would=30 points in 38 matches). A repeat of those results would see them to the mythical number of 40. It would take a collapse of epic proportions and a substantial rise from the bottom teams to relegate NUFC. The past three seasons the 18-th placed team has had 35 points (EDIT:35 points on average), we have 27 and it is January.

 

I am expecting a terrible second half of the season, but I think that was on the cards whether Pardew or Charver was at the helm. Even so it is hard to imagine that we won't get 12 points just going by the law of averages,e specially since we have a squad full of internationals compared to many of the lower half teams. Ashley himself knows this and that is why he is prepared to leave us without a manager for the remainder of the season confident we can pick up the points to keep us safe regardless of who is in charge.

 

Same feelings.

 

My feelings exactly.  Couple of wise posts here.

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chicago_shearer

chicago_shearer

Posted
Posted

Same thing that happened last time. It can't happen, it won't happen, there are worse teams than us, just need a point here, Hull have a tougher run in....and then we're down. You should have a pretty active pessimistic imagination when it comes to creative, initially implausible ways that this club can fail.

 

The squad is better than at least 3 teams below us. That's totally irrelevant. The "head coach" is more than capable of squandering an 8 point advantage in two months.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The league is worse than it was when we went down.  Kinnear/Shearer's side would have stayed up in this league.

 

They were a goal away from staying in the league last time when things really were shit & desperate.

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afar

afar

Posted
Posted

The Hull game is the turning point, win it and be hugely surprised if we go down despite Carver. Lose it and we are in for a long hard fight as most of us predict. A draw helps us more than Hull.

 

I'm at 6 right now, will go up to 7 with a defeat and down to 4 with a win.

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Heron

Heron

Posted
Posted

7 for me. I only see us losing to Hull and I think given the feeling around the club it will spiral downwards, and quickly. We might stay up but we won't be sitting as comfortably as we should be. We don't have anyone up for a fight and we have a team of mercenaries, the same as the last time we went down. I just hope the rest are as shit as we all think...

 

:jesuswept:

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Segun Oluwaniyi

Segun Oluwaniyi

Posted
Posted

Same thing that happened last time. It can't happen, it won't happen, there are worse teams than us, just need a point here, Hull have a tougher run in....and then we're down. You should have a pretty active pessimistic imagination when it comes to creative, initially implausible ways that this club can fail.

 

The squad is better than at least 3 teams below us. That's totally irrelevant. The "head coach" is more than capable of squandering an 8 point advantage in two months.

I agree and see what you are saying, but for me the fact is that, even the paltry 11 points NUFC received from the last 16 matches in 2008-2009 would leave the club with 38 points, a total that would have seen them safe in nine of the past ten seasons. I just cannot see the team going on this poor of a run. Of course, NUFC have gone about making the threat as real as possible, but we are generally competent in terms of playing staff, imo, and while Carver is an idiot, I don't think he is on a mission of sabotage.

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jdckelly

jdckelly

Posted
Posted

on paper it seems extremely difficult for us to contrive a relegation like

 

hull, stoke, villa, swansea, leicester, west brom, qpr & west ham - there's enough points in there probably unless we go into a ridiculous freefall that is

thing is freefall is entirely possible. Next 3 games are vital because after that the fixture list turns horrific and by the time Leicester wba QPR etc games come around the confidence could be so badly destroyed from losing game after game after game that I wouldn't fancy our chances anyway. 7 points minimum needed from Hull Stoke and Palace to be sure of safety, I'm not exactly confident on getting that 7 points.

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mrmojorisin75

mrmojorisin75

Posted
Posted

on paper it seems extremely difficult for us to contrive a relegation like

 

hull, stoke, villa, swansea, leicester, west brom, qpr & west ham - there's enough points in there probably unless we go into a ridiculous freefall that is

thing is freefall is entirely possible. Next 3 games are vital because after that the fixture list turns horrific and by the time Leicester wba QPR etc games come around the confidence could be so badly destroyed from losing game after game after game that I wouldn't fancy our chances anyway. 7 points minimum needed from Hull Stoke and Palace to be sure of safety, I'm not exactly confident on getting that 7 points.

 

yeah i agree to an extent, if hull and palace beat us then we lose that 3rd winnable game we'll be desperate for something from villa at home, lose that and i agree relegation could be a real possibility

 

if he gets one win in the next 3 games we'll stay up though

 

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loki679

loki679

Posted
Posted

Isn't a 7 a 70% chance of going down?  I really don't see how our probability of going down at this point can be that high given our points total so far and the dross below us.  I went for a 2, think we'll dodder on to 11th - 15th place.

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sempuki

sempuki

Posted
Posted

At this point in the season we went down we had 23 points, just 4 fewer than we have now.

 

We got another 11 over the rest of the season, if we replicate that this time we'll be OK...

Can see a total like that. Dream the dream.
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loki679

loki679

Posted
Posted

At this point in the season we went down we had 23 points, just 4 fewer than we have now.

 

We got another 11 over the rest of the season, if we replicate that this time we'll be OK...

 

Aye, we were an absolute shambles, the players didn't give a fuck, the bottom end of the league was more competitive and we still only went down by the skin of our teeth.

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Nexumaster

Nexumaster

Posted
Posted

We're s**** but I think we'll be able to get the required 11 points.

 

Sat 31 12:45 A Hull City MAYBE

February

Sun 08 14:05 H Stoke City  NOPE

Wed 11 20:00 A Crystal Palace NOPE

Sat 21 17:30 A Manchester City NOPE

Sat 28 15:00 H Aston Villa MAYBE

March

Wed 04 19:45 H Man Utd NOPE

Sat 14 15:00 A Everton NOPE

Sat 21 15:00 H Arsenal NOPE

April

Sat 04 15:00 A Sunderland NOPE

Sat 11 15:00 A Liverpool NOPE

Sat 18 15:00 H Tottenham NOPE

Sat 25 15:00 H Swansea City NOPE

May

Sat 02 15:00 A Leicester City MAYBE

Sat 09 15:00 H WBA NOPE

Sat 16 15:00 A QPR MAYBE

Sun 24 15:00 H West Ham Utd NOPE

 

4 games which are ones we should PROBABLY win, but sweet jesus, I just don't know with JC... :sad:

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