Relegationometer

[Mistle17]

We deserve to go down tbh. The way the club has been run and is run, we don't deserve to be in the top flight.

 

I'm not just saying it but the PL Is utter shit anyway- I won't miss it for one minute tbh, it's total bullshit. It could almost be a blessing going down to deny Ashley that tv money.

[George Bailey]

With current manager a solid 8/9 out of 10. He is proving himself a rapid failure, actually considering his last moths within management, he is just proving that he is a failure.

 

Change and down to 5/6.

 

We are a poor side. defensively and in midfield.

With a new manager our chances improve imo, and of course massive, targeted and wise spending in January.

 

What, reagardless of who the new man is? What if it's Kinnear or Carver?

 

No mate, but a change imo, even a temporary one for this season only to someone who can galvanise this squad would give us a better chance.

Not just anyone (Carver etc) but maybe as unpalatable as it would be, an Allardyce ish appt would imo work in giving us a better chance.

 

imo our current manager is a failure and will see us down. Investment is obliviously vital in Jan...

Solid, experienced CH, left back and DM are the keys for me..and a keeper on loan.

[mrmojorisin75]

We deserve to go down tbh. The way the club has been run and is run, we don't deserve to be in the top flight.

 

I'm not just saying it but the PL Is utter shit anyway- I won't miss it for one minute tbh, it's total bullshit. It could almost be a blessing going down to deny Ashley that tv money.

 

Wonder what Ashley would think of it all. Goaded into a live TV interview for the first time making promises he backs up with the continued appointment of Lee Charnley and his litany of failure.

 

He's going to look like an absolute fucking fool and I can not see the man taking kindly to that.

[Interpolic]

Think we'll be areet still tbh, been saying the same for ages. Need to really step up the next 4 games but we're playing some good stuff at times. Far worse Newcastle sides than this down the years have been fine.

 

[mrmojorisin75]

Think we'll be areet still tbh, been saying the same for ages. Need to really step up the next 6 games but we're playing some good stuff at times. Far worse Newcastle sides than this down the years have been fine.

 

I'm inclined to agree, but as I've said today we'll need at least 3 top quality players in January or we will go down. Can't see the squad having enough as it is.

 

What if Mitrovic gets injured foot example? The whole plan is then fucked and it's Riviere or Cisse.

[midds]

The 38-40 point benchmark is a little misleading too. To stay up you've got to be better than 3 other sides, the points total doesn't really come into it and as poor as we are I think we'll finish above at least 3 other sides. We've had one of the worst starts to a league season in our history and are only 2 points behind 17th, 3 behind 16th etc. Not trying to spin this as success by any stretch but I think we'll survive.

[Mr Logic]

We should win the next two anyway, Stoke H, Bournmouth A.

 

Then we've expected to win a couple of others before now.

[Dave]

Bournemouth away is a certain defeat.

 

[Interpolic]

The 38-40 point benchmark is a little misleading too. To stay up you've got to be better than 3 other sides, the points total doesn't really come into it and as poor as we are I think we'll finish above at least 3 other sides. We've had one of the worst starts to a league season in our history and are only 2 points behind 17th, 3 behind 16th etc. Not trying to spin this as success by any stretch but I think we'll survive.

The distribution of points this season has been a bit odd. Not that we're necessarily making the same point here but people keep rightly going on about Chelsea's terrible form but they're only 11 points off the top with 3 quarters of the season to go. If they sorted themselves out they could actually challenge again.

[Disco]

For us, the important thing is that AFCB and Norwich continue to flounder and the mackems/Villa get the same new manager bounce that we got.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Sunderland look awful, they're very much headed for the drop IMO.

[Ketsbaia]

Yep and Garde has a tough start. It's almost certainly between us 5 and perhaps Watford.

[thomas]

Was bored and American so decided see what the trend had been in recent times in terms of relegation chances after 10 games.

 

Caveats aside that of course the game isn't played on paper and stats are the devil's abacus: if you're in the bottom 3 after 10 games it's still close to a coin-flip: 24 of the 45 teams in the bottom three after 10 games (53%) over the last 15 years have gone on to be relegated.

 

 

 

Bold indicates a relegated team was in the bottom 3 after 10 games.

Year	Bottom 3 After 10 Games	Bottom 3 at season end
2014-15	Leicester, QPR, Burnley	Hull, Burnley, QPR
2013-14	Norwich, Sunderland, Crystal Palace	Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff City
2012-13	Reading, QPR, Southampton	Wigan, Reading, QPR
2011-12	Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan	Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves
2010-11	Blackburn, Wolves, West Ham	Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Ham
2009-10	Hull, West Ham, Portsmouth	Burnley, Hull, Portsmouth
2008-09	Wigan, Bolton, Tottenham	Newcastle United, Middlesbrough, West Brom
2007-08	Tottenham, Derby, Bolton	Reading, Birmingham City, Derby
2006-07	Watford, Sheffield United, Charlton	Sheffield United, Charlton, Watford
2005-06	Everton, Birmingham City, Sunderland	Birmingham City, West Brom, Sunderland
2004-05	Southampton, Norwich, Blackburn	Crystal Palace, Norwich, Southampton
2003-04	Bolton, Leeds, Leicester	Leicester, Leeds, Wolves
2002-03	Man CIty, Sunderland, Bolton	West Ham, West Brom, Sunderland
2001-02	Derby, Southampton, Leicester	Ipswich, Derby, Leicester
2000-01	West Ham, Bradford, Derby	Man City, Coventry, Bradford

 

 

[Wallsendmag]

Sunderland look awful, they're very much headed for the drop IMO.

 

We've said that for years only for them to put together a freak run in April/May that nets them 15 points or so from their last 6/7 games. They're a terrible side, worse than us, but the luck they get when they really need it is incredible and has kept them up for the past 3 years. If yesterday is anything to go by they're still carrying it all as well.

 

Think them and Villa will get out of it providing Villa appoint a competent manager and it'll be between ourselves, Bournemouth and either Watford for the drop.

[Varadi]

For us, the important thing is that AFCB and Norwich continue to flounder and the mackems/Villa get the same new manager bounce that we got.

 

The mackems have already had a better new manager bounce than we got

[Heake]

I'm assuming this optimism, if thinking we might stay up can be classed as such, can only be based on the assumption that we experience an unprecedented turn in form (We`ve won three games all year). Whilst id love to share the sentiment, I cannot see this group having neither the skills, nor the spirit to mount a run of form to suggest such an upturn.

 

No, were fucked Imo, though I`d echo the sentiments of those who don't fear relegation as some catalyst to a Leeds-esq disaster.

 

You know, I don't go with the thinking that to be a successful club you have to challenge for the top honours year in-year out. No, you have to keep your punters happy, however that manifests itself.  I have no interest at all in the Champions league, I harbour no ambitions to win the premier league (A futile aspiration the way things stand), I would, however, like to see the club play good football & win their fare share of games against teams of a similar ilk & mebez a tin pot cup or jaunt around Europe once in a while. This team / set-up is eons away from that.

 

In the meantime, I`ll be happy going into the weekend optimistic of getting a result against lesser (Though at this present time arguably equivalent size) teams in the Championship & tuning in to Tuesday night for a bit of a midweek fix - the only downside being the lack of live telly.

 

& stick your Champions league theme, Alan fucking Parry, Mourinoio`s post match bore-fest & the subsequent felating from the southern hacks, Souness / Redknapp / Collymore & all the other fatuous parasites who populate the Sky / talksport ex-pros club where its dark & brown

[George Bailey]

Bournemouth away is a certain defeat.

 

 

Nailed on isn't it 

Stoke will have point to prove too imo...

These two see a change, again imo.

[shintonsghost]

Bournemouth away is a certain defeat.

 

 

Nailed on isn't it 

Stoke will have point to prove too imo...

These two see a change, again imo.

 

2 draws i think

[sempuki]

Over a quarter of the season gone and we have never had so few points. If we lose the next two we are fucked imo.

[Karjala]

We'll lose tomorrow, draw at best. Bournemouth away is a certain defeat and we'll be looking fucked again.

 

Battle between us, Villa, mackems, Bournemouth and Norwich.

[Ikon]

We'll lose tomorrow, draw at best. Bournemouth away is a certain defeat and we'll be looking f***ed again.

 

Battle between us, Villa, mackems, Bournemouth and Norwich.

 

We'll win tomorrow! Perkele!

[hakka]

Was bored and American so decided see what the trend had been in recent times in terms of relegation chances after 10 games.

 

Caveats aside that of course the game isn't played on paper and stats are the devil's abacus: if you're in the bottom 3 after 10 games it's still close to a coin-flip: 24 of the 45 teams in the bottom three after 10 games (53%) over the last 15 years have gone on to be relegated.

 

 

 

Bold indicates a relegated team was in the bottom 3 after 10 games.

Year	Bottom 3 After 10 Games	Bottom 3 at season end
2014-15	Leicester, QPR, Burnley	Hull, Burnley, QPR
2013-14	Norwich, Sunderland, Crystal Palace	Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff City
2012-13	Reading, QPR, Southampton	Wigan, Reading, QPR
2011-12	Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan	Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves
2010-11	Blackburn, Wolves, West Ham	Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Ham
2009-10	Hull, West Ham, Portsmouth	Burnley, Hull, Portsmouth
2008-09	Wigan, Bolton, Tottenham	Newcastle United, Middlesbrough, West Brom
2007-08	Tottenham, Derby, Bolton	Reading, Birmingham City, Derby
2006-07	Watford, Sheffield United, Charlton	Sheffield United, Charlton, Watford
2005-06	Everton, Birmingham City, Sunderland	Birmingham City, West Brom, Sunderland
2004-05	Southampton, Norwich, Blackburn	Crystal Palace, Norwich, Southampton
2003-04	Bolton, Leeds, Leicester	Leicester, Leeds, Wolves
2002-03	Man CIty, Sunderland, Bolton	West Ham, West Brom, Sunderland
2001-02	Derby, Southampton, Leicester	Ipswich, Derby, Leicester
2000-01	West Ham, Bradford, Derby	Man City, Coventry, Bradford

 

 

 

Be interesting to slice that information by whether the teams changed manager post ten games or not. If most of the ones that stay up is due to a manager change, that spells trouble for us as we wont change at all.

[thomas]

Was bored and American so decided see what the trend had been in recent times in terms of relegation chances after 10 games.

 

Caveats aside that of course the game isn't played on paper and stats are the devil's abacus: if you're in the bottom 3 after 10 games it's still close to a coin-flip: 24 of the 45 teams in the bottom three after 10 games (53%) over the last 15 years have gone on to be relegated.

 

 

 

Bold indicates a relegated team was in the bottom 3 after 10 games.

Year	Bottom 3 After 10 Games	Bottom 3 at season end
2014-15	Leicester, QPR, Burnley	Hull, Burnley, QPR
2013-14	Norwich, Sunderland, Crystal Palace	Norwich, Fulham, Cardiff City
2012-13	Reading, QPR, Southampton	Wigan, Reading, QPR
2011-12	Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan	Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves
2010-11	Blackburn, Wolves, West Ham	Birmingham City, Blackpool, West Ham
2009-10	Hull, West Ham, Portsmouth	Burnley, Hull, Portsmouth
2008-09	Wigan, Bolton, Tottenham	Newcastle United, Middlesbrough, West Brom
2007-08	Tottenham, Derby, Bolton	Reading, Birmingham City, Derby
2006-07	Watford, Sheffield United, Charlton	Sheffield United, Charlton, Watford
2005-06	Everton, Birmingham City, Sunderland	Birmingham City, West Brom, Sunderland
2004-05	Southampton, Norwich, Blackburn	Crystal Palace, Norwich, Southampton
2003-04	Bolton, Leeds, Leicester	Leicester, Leeds, Wolves
2002-03	Man CIty, Sunderland, Bolton	West Ham, West Brom, Sunderland
2001-02	Derby, Southampton, Leicester	Ipswich, Derby, Leicester
2000-01	West Ham, Bradford, Derby	Man City, Coventry, Bradford

 

 

 

Be interesting to slice that information by whether the teams changed manager post ten games or not. If most of the ones that stay up is due to a manager change, that spells trouble for us as we wont change at all.

Took a brief look and there wasn't a connection, probably because other teams will chop and change if/as they begin to slide, negating the effect. But all this is a coinflip at 10 games anyway. I think after 15-18 games bottom the 5 are usually set. Wait and see I suppose. 

[Guest palnese]

Another canny result.

[Pilko]

Seriously worries me that we seem unable to score in so many games this season. Butland did play class today but we should have won... again. Too familiar.