Relegationometer

[Jesse Pinkman]

Brighton could easily have a poor 2nd half of the season. They have never filled me with confidence in getting results, and if they have a bad spell then their confidence could go and that could finish them off.

 

I may be misrembering but up until last weekend, they had scored like 1 goal at home in 6 games.

[tom1988]

Was at the west brom game today with my uncle and they looked shite. Solid enough but that was more to do with Everton being terrible - they missed Rooney massively.

 

West brom just kept pumping crosses in and Rondon / Rodriguez / Robson-kanu were useless. Unless they reinforce up front they ain't gonna win many games.

[mrmojorisin75]

Brighton could easily have a poor 2nd half of the season. They have never filled me with confidence in getting results, and if they have a bad spell then their confidence could go and that could finish them off.

Maybe your best every post

[madras]

Brighton could easily have a poor 2nd half of the season. They have never filled me with confidence in getting results, and if they have a bad spell then their confidence could go and that could finish them off.

You could take  "Brighton" out of that post and replace it with most of the bottom half.

[alexjack]

This poll about relegation chances must stay until the end of season and beyond. Just to show how optimistic we are as a bunch.

[Dave]

It's nine years old.

[alexjack]

It's nine years old.

 

Remember when Ashley wanted to sell the club for 100mil and nothing happened

 

good times

[Dave]

The next six matches:

 

NUFC vs Brighton

Stoke vs NUFC

NUFC vs Luton (FA Cup)

NUFC vs Swansea

Man City vs NUFC

NUFC vs Burnley

 

Our season will be defined by the end of January.

[Yorkie]

Yup. The most critical four-and-a-bit weeks of the season; due to things that will happen on and off the field.

[Bimpy474]

We could do with early transfers with those fixtures, the usual doodling about over a couple of million will condemn us.

[TRon]

Brighton, Swansea and WBA are the teams I'm looking at as our best bets to stay up. The rest all have dangerous players who can win them games unexpectedly. Needless to say, the game against Brighton on Saturday then takes on even more significance.

[midds]

2.6

 

Got faith in the boss.

[Dr Venkman]

2, will drop to 0 with a few decent signings

[SuperFlat]

Just think it's extremely unlikely that we'll lose 9 out of 10 again in the second half of the season. The window will have a say in that, but I think we'll be alright.

[Tiotes Witch Doctor]

If we manage 4 points from our next two, we'll realistically need about 16 points from our last 16 games, 5 wins and a draw should be more than do-able if we can hit a little bit of form like we did earlier in the season.

[Altamullan]

I predicted we’d have 30 points by end of December and 51 at end of season (see 4 November post, this thread for detail). I was optimistically assuming creeping into a top ten finish and basing the monthly totals on preseason ‘perceived to be’ relative difficulty of games. If we beat Brighton, best we can have is 21 points, 70% to date, which if the difference/form continued would mean 36 points. Draw and it is 19, 63% of expected, and 32 points. Lose and it is 18, 60%, and a total of 31 points for the season.

 

I know there is no reason to see the expected results as particularly valid, but it did look like we had an easier start (given who we had when and whether home or away) relatively speaking, than finish. Basically, not a dazzling insight but looks really dire unless there is a marked change in results. (Even if just take 18 pts from 20 games and extend, irrespective of who we play when, then it looks like a 34 point total).

[Altamullan]

Just looked at last ten years relegation and top-ten points totals. Lowest to stay-up (17th) is 35 points (Hull 2009; WHU, 2010). Highest total still to go down (18th) is 39 points (Birmingham 2011; followed by us in 2016 with 37 pts). Total points for 10th range from 45 (WBA, 2017) to 50 (Citeh, 2009; Blackburn, 2010; Chelsea, 2016: spot the odd one out!!). Average 10th place total is about 48 points.

[Optimistic Nut]

1/39 points against the top 13

17/21 points against the bottom 7.

 

 

[Altamullan]

1/39 points against the top 13

17/21 points against the bottom 7.

If that is where we have recouped our 18 points, it makes it seem even more bleak. We have five games left against (current) bottom seven sides (3 at home, 2 away). Which at the same rate would give us 12 points. We have 13 games against top 13: 6 at home. Surely we can to get more than 1 point from the 39 available. Guess if we don’t, then we deserve to go down.

[Decky]

A win today would be massive. 21 points going into the window and I think I'd go down to a 3.

[Altamullan]

I think the most winnable home games (outside bottom seven: Swansea, Southampton & WBA) are

Brighton, Huddersfield, and Burnley. In that order.

 

The other home games are Man Utd, Arsenal & Chelsea.

 

The most winnable away games (outside bottom seven: Palace & Bournemouth) are

Stoke & Watford.

 

The other away games are Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Leicester, & Everton.

[U2]

Just cranked up another notch.

[George Bailey]

Nailed on.

No takeover = relegation.

[astraguy]

Without a takeover,Even with Rafa we are fucked

[Guest Howaythetoon]

Going down and deservedly so, utter shit from the boardroom, dugout and pitch.