The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[Oregon_Geordie]

I can't decide. I genuinely think if we win Saturday and get anything from the next two we are back in the mix.

I just hope we manage to get the mix right from now on. I feel the teams pretty set now, just that midfield two and how to deploy Joelinton, Maxi, Miggy and Fraser left to answer.

 

Then stay as close as we can til Jan. Maybe I'm still being too positive, right now - 7!

 

[Guest]

If we could sneak 3-4 points from Leicester, Man U & Everton next month it’d be handy.

[McCormick]

Need to double our current points total by January to give us a decent shout. Definitely possible but unlikely.

 

4 points from the next 2 would be huge for our survival chances.

[South-Cheshire-Toon]

I was looking at the games last night, and so far, the only team that seems 'Unbeatable' at present is Liverpool, this is going on snippets of the games, seeing one team doing a high press and the opposition then losing the ball. (VIL - CITY).

Burnley only had 6 or so shots, and the first on target wasn't until the 75 or so minute - so am vaguely optimistic on our chances of staying up.

Leicester only drawing, watford losing. Everton were poor. 

 

At the end of the day, it all lies with the defence, if we can get that sorted then we'll be fine as I don't think there are any issue going forward.

 

Was a 0, last voted a 3.

[Doctor Zaius]

Depends on January. 

 

Without significant reinforcements we're 9.5 imo. Should be buy and buy well, we could get out of trouble. The manager debacle and then the lack of any sort of structural appointments so far doesn't fill me with confidence. I really hope we're not relying on Amanda Staveley and Jamie Reuben, who have 0 experience of running a football clubs, to conduct business in the most important window I can remember.  

 

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Doctor Zaius

[LV]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Zaius said:

Depends on January. 

 

Without significant reinforcements we're 9.5 imo. Should be buy and buy well, we could get out of trouble. The manager debacle and then the lack of any sort of structural appointments so far doesn't fill me with confidence. I really hope we're not relying on Amanda Staveley and Jamie Reuben, who have 0 experience of running a football clubs, to conduct business in the most important window I can remember.  

 

 

 

Reuben has a bit of experience with QPR mind 

[deejeck]

I'm not feeling overly optimistic at this stage, but we managed to pick up 26 points from our last 18 games last season and that was with a fat useless cunt in charge and probably training once a fortnight, so anything is possible.

 

That stat about no wins at the start of the season keeps getting trotted out but I'd be more interested to know what is the longest run without a win at any point of the season, where a team has stayed up?

 

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by deejeck

[wormy]

2 minutes ago, deejeck said:

I'm not feeling overly optimistic at this stage, but we managed to pick up 26 points from our last 18 games last season and that was with a fat useless cunt in charge and probably training once a fortnight, so anything is possible.

 

That stat about no wins at the start of the season keeps getting trotted out but I'd be more interested to know what is the longest run without a win at any point of the season, where a team has stayed up?

 

 

 

 

Further to the bolded, I'd be interested to know the number of draws of those winless run teams we're being compared to. We're winless in 14 but we've also avoided defeat in half of those games. The point coming from each of those draws is keeping us within touching distance if we can string a couple of wins together.

 

It's all well and good raising 'no team has survived after xyz' but the big stat right now is we remain 6 points behind with 72 left to play for.

 

I won't deny I'll be revisiting my post-Brentford 5/10 if we fall further behind on Saturday. But it remains nowhere near as dead in the water as 'no wins in 14' would have people believe.

[The Prophet]

36 points would have kept us up, last five seasons. If we can pick up 4-6 points before the new year, we have every chance. As someone above said, under Bruce we picked up 26 points in the second half of last season.

[Raconteur]

32 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

36 points would have kept us up, last five seasons. If we can pick up 4-6 points before the new year, we have every chance. As someone above said, under Bruce we picked up 26 points in the second half of last season.

 

We’ve actually put together sterling runs of form in the second half of the last four seasons - twice with Rafa and twice with Cabbage Heed.

 

That said, I don’t really put a lot of stock in that as a guide for this (very different) season.

[jackyboy]

9 points off 11th place. I think that Watford were well adrift when Pearson took over and he got them out of the relegation zone. True to form Watford then sacked him

[the fella]

8 hours ago, DebuchyAndTheBeast said:

Voted 9 and that we'll be relegated.

 

We've already played all the promoted teams and we haven't managed to beat any of them.

 

I'm also not seeing any spirit or urgency from the players. I know that we shouldn't be panicking yet but we need to show more grit and resolve. 

 

Unless we can sign a few players in January and who can have the same impact as Willock had last season, we'll sleepwalk to relegation.

This is where I'm at as well. This relegation feels like the 2009 one where we could draw games and not lose too often, and everyone said we'd convert draws into wins but we didnt. 

 

We are sleepwalking into it. You cannot expect to stay up with no wins against any of the newly promoted teams, nevermind the established ones. Too many people have understandably been blindsided by the takeover and not appreciated the shit we are in on the pitch.

[Shearergol]

The year before Leicester won the title, at this stage of the season they only had 3 more points than we have now, in 20th place, which at the time was 10 points less than us. They still finished above us

 

I think it just feels particularly negative as we've not seen a decent bounce from the takeover and new manager.

 

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Shearergol

[deejeck]

8 minutes ago, jackyboy said:

9 points off 11th place. I think that Watford were well adrift when Pearson took over and he got them out of the relegation zone. True to form Watford then sacked him

Aye - After 15 games, Watford had 8 points.  They then made it to 34 points and were out of the relegation zone with 3 games left to play but then lost their last 3 and went down by a point.

 

If we do win on Saturday we'll be 2 points better off, if we draw then we'll be in the same boat as they were but at least we'll have the chance of doing something significant when the transfer window opens.

 

My confidence still isn't that high but for every stat that has us sunk without a trace, there's another stat which shows that it is possible to get out of this mess.

[Deuce]

I look at the Brentford and Norwich games and see two games we could’ve easily gotten 6 points from. We weren’t outplayed in either.
 

We’ve a high hill to climb, but I’m not without hope that Howe can keep us up.

 

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Tomato Deuce

[AyeDubbleYoo]

It's a really hard league to assess this year, every team outside the top 3 or 4 is very similar quality. Yet they almost all get battered by Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City. 

 

It's hard to see if that makes any difference to the points total needed for survival, we will see. 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by AyeDubbleYoo

[ScottishMagpie]

1 hour ago, wormy said:

 

Further to the bolded, I'd be interested to know the number of draws of those winless run teams we're being compared to. We're winless in 14 but we've also avoided defeat in half of those games. The point coming from each of those draws is keeping us within touching distance if we can string a couple of wins together.

 

It's all well and good raising 'no team has survived after xyz' but the big stat right now is we remain 6 points behind with 72 left to play for.

 

I won't deny I'll be revisiting my post-Brentford 5/10 if we fall further behind on Saturday. But it remains nowhere near as dead in the water as 'no wins in 14' would have people believe.

 I may be being way too simplistic but this is the main thing going around my head just now.  

[Paully]

 

[Dr Jinx]

Ok, went through all the fixtures between now and Jan 1st

 

At the most optimistic while still being realistic, I can see us picking up no more than 10 points between now and then while also best guessing the fixtures all the other teams have. Burnley and Norwich have tough fixtures, they won’t add much to what they have.

 

So where does that leave us?

 

1. Man City 50 points

2 Liverpool 49 points

3. Chelsea 47 points

4. West Ham 36 points

5. Spurs 35 points

6. Man Utd 33 points

7. Arsenal 32 points

8. Wolves 26 points

9. Palace 26 points

10. Everton 26 points

11. Leicester 24 points

12. Villa 23 points

13. Brighton 22 points

14. Brentford 21 points

15. Southampton 20 points

16. Leeds 18 points

17. Newcastle 17 points

18. Watford 15 points

19. Burnley 12 points

20. Norwich 10 points

 

Remember, this is a realistic best case scenario for us but if it turns out to be what happens I think we have a great chance with some improvements in squad from January.

[Thomson Mouse]

We won’t go down.

 

Happy to say this now but we won’t 

[MrRaspberryJam]

If we can get to January being only 5 or 6 pts adrift, I think we'll be sweet.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Mr Raspberry Jam

[SiLvOR]

I just really have no idea what to expect in January. Bar that one window (12/13?) when we got Sissoko, Yanga-Mbiwa, Debuchy, etc, we've had shit Januarys. I'm just unable to see us getting in the quality players we need, as ludicrous as that sounds. Think I'll get over it when we get the first one in mind. I really believe under Howe we can surprise teams, but this December is going to be brutal. Tomorrow is a must win for me, in order for us to have a chance.

[HaydnNUFC]

11 minutes ago, Mr Raspberry Jam said:

If we can get to January being only 5 or 6 pts adrift, I think we'll be sweet.

 

 

 

 

Same. Need to keep this gap more or less the same, if we shorten it all the more better. Our run of games from Everton away through to Brighton at home are good and by then we'll have the window and Howe will have hopefully fully got his ideas across and fitness of the players up.

[Ankles Bennett]

Im still concerned that if we get relegated the other EPL clubs will collectively collude to amend the O&D test in our absece to ensure PIF are excluded from being a director once we are promoted back to the EPL.  Its therefore essential that we ensure the EPL are not given the opportunity to effectively cut the clubs supply of financial support from PIF.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ankles Bennett

[TRon]

Changed my vote from an 8 to a 5 after listening to Eddie Howe's press conference.