The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[xLiaaamx]

It's insane that we haven't lost since Man City at home like, at that point we just looked incapable of getting results. Completely the opposite now. We just seem to be able to see out everything, really looking forward to seeing us evolve again this summer. 

[Nobody]

Just now, xLiaaamx said:

It's insane that we haven't lost since Man City at home like, at that point we just looked incapable of getting results. Completely the opposite now. We just seem to be able to see out everything, really looking forward to seeing us evolve again this summer. 

That was before Christmas ffs

[Kid Icarus]

On 31/01/2022 at 23:49, Kid Icarus said:

7, down from 8.

 

Reason it's gone down:

Our signings

 

Reasons it's not lower:

I'm just naturally pessimistic

Until now it's felt like a relegation season

No prolific striker for a while

It's a fight probably between only 4 clubs

I expect Roy Hodgson to sort Watford out,

I think Lampard will get a new manager bounce and get a tune out of Alli

 

 I think it'll still be very close and feels like it'll go down to the last game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Kid Icarus

[Dancing Brave]

14 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

It's like you are some kind of prophet.

[TRon]

Looking forward to this being renamed Big 6-Ometer next season.

 

[Mike]

7 minutes ago, TRon said:

Looking forward to this being renamed Big 6-Ometer next season.

 

 

Top 2-ometer, tbh.

[Lazarus]

Super-League-ometer tbh

[54]

[Guest]

On 15/01/2022 at 17:07, OCK said:

It'll be one hell of a half season if we managed to stay up now, and I'm ready to witness it. 

[Bizza]

6 hours ago, TRon said:

Looking forward to this being renamed The Champions-Ometer next season.

 

[Nobody]

On 08/01/2022 at 21:29, HTT II said:

Even a star striker won’t make the difference, it’s not as if one can just win games on their own single handed, we have a shit defence, a shit midfield, zero confidence, 1 win all season and 14 years of neglect, WE ARE GOING DOWN!

Sorry for digging you out here HTT, could have been any post from anyone back then. 

But no, we didn't need a star striker, we needed to let Howe bring in solid improvements in key parts of the team, and then continue to work on our squad for us to be fine 

[Guest HTT II]

6 hours ago, Nobody said:

Sorry for digging you out here HTT, could have been any post from anyone back then. 

But no, we didn't need a star striker, we needed to let Howe bring in solid improvements in key parts of the team, and then continue to work on our squad for us to be fine 

Fair play, but at the time we were going down and no-one could have foreseen the resurgence in form, wins and success under Howe we’ve recently enjoyed, and by the way, I advocated for Howe and even though I thought we would go down under him, I still advocated for him.

[Gawalls]

14 hours ago, TRon said:

Looking forward to this being renamed Big 6-Ometer next season.

 

And the notbeingfirstometer the season after (joke)

[TBG]

10

[Wolfcastle]

Got to avoid defeat at Everton still.

[Kanji]

We’re going there and coming back with 3 points. 

[toon25]

Are we sure we're not gaaaanin doon now?

[TheInfiniteOdyssey]

2 minutes ago, Wolfcastle said:

Got to avoid defeat at Everton still.

Need to perhaps a touch strong, we're all but certain to be safe if we avoid defeat however.

 

Nonetheless, I would certainly hope that even if we lost against Everton, we could get a win against either Palace, Wolves, Leicester at home or Norwich away.

 

Would be a bit more relaxed if Watford didn't win today truth be told!

[The Prophet]

Aye, I'd have been delighted with four points from the three quick fire away games, six would be great going.

[SUPERTOON]

25 minutes ago, toon25 said:

Are we sure we're not gaaaanin doon now?

Not until we are mathematically safe 

[HaydnNUFC]

A win at Goodison to keep the battle at arm's length would be brilliant.

[The Prophet]

32 minutes ago, Wolfcastle said:

Got to avoid defeat at Everton still.

 

Nah.

[The Prophet]

Shame to end the unbeaten run, but I can't see it affecting our momentum too much.

[Coffee_Johnny]

For what it is worth, if we apply a simple prediction formula (beat bottom six sides home and away; lose to top six home and away; beat mid table at home, draw/lose away) then we would return 18 points from remaining games. 
 

For comparison,  we’ve done better than this formula predicts for last 9 games. Getting 20 points, instead of 16 predicted. 
 

So if our form continues, somewhere between 18 and 23 points. The pessimistic prediction would be a return to the average for the season (can’t see worse than that) which would return 11 points. Soooo, pseudo statistical crystal ball says anywhere between 42 and 54 points, probably 49. I’d (almost) happily take lower estimate. Anyway, would take a very unlikely huge collapse to see anything but safety now. 

[McDog]

1 minute ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

For what it is worth, if we apply a simple prediction formula (beat bottom six sides home and away; lose to top six home and away; beat mid table at home, draw/lose away) then we would return 18 points from remaining games. 
 

For comparison,  we’ve done better than this formula predicts for last 9 games. Getting 20 points, instead of 16 predicted. 
 

So if our form continues, somewhere between 18 and 23 points. The pessimistic prediction would be a return to the average for the season (can’t see worse than that) which would return 11 points. Soooo, pseudo statistical crystal ball says anywhere between 42 and 54 points, probably 49. I’d (almost) happily take lower estimate. Anyway, would take a very unlikely huge collapse to see anything but safety now. 

 

 

 

Yep. I heartily concur.