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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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3 minutes ago, Jackie Broon said:

 

Everton, Leeds and Brentford are easily going to do enough to pass us if that happens, then it just needs to be one from Burnley and Watford. Burnley only need two more wins than us to make our match with them a relegation decider in that circumstance.

 

We have a really tough run-in and we're not out of danger yet.

 

That's my point the chances of 3 sides getting back to wins is low

 

I'm not factoring Brentford as they are only a point behind us but Leeds would need back to back wins to go ahead, Everton would need back to back wins just to draw level (ahead on GD) and Burnley back to back wins still has them 4 behind us, so they need 4 wins. The odd team doing that is possible but it would need 3 teams to do it and I'm not sure that's ever happened before. A glance at the form table shows from 14 downwards only 2 teams have done that (Us and Brentford)

 

We aren't safe yet but I see us similar to Brentford when people were saying they'll be dragged into it, just a win buys us so much breathing space, after Spurs we have 3 home games on the bounce, that's where we will hopefully be safe.

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14 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

There are none aside from Palace at home that I really fancy us in, but this really should be the year we finally win at Carrow Road like, they're fucking terrible. 

That's some spectacular negativity like. You do realise we've just been on a great run, performed decent-excellent for 9 games in a row, and been let down by a poor half of football last night / running out of steam.

 

Of course we're more than capable of picking up another win or two out of the remaining fixtures. I'm backing us to get past 40 points.

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Leicester and Palace have won six away games between them this season, three of those were against the current bottom three. We shouldn't be fearing either.

 

Wolves are the best of the lot on the road and have won a really impressive 8 of 15 away games.  Bizarrely, since we were promoted 5 of the 7 head to heads have finished 1-1 (the other two being 2-1 wins to Wolves).

 

All of them will be tough games, but we've only lost once at home under Howe to Man City. Two of these are evening games, under the lights as well, which always makes for a better home crowd.

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2 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

 

That's my point the chances of 3 sides getting back to wins is low

 

I'm not factoring Brentford as they are only a point behind us but Leeds would need back to back wins to go ahead, Everton would need back to back wins just to draw level (ahead on GD) and Burnley back to back wins still has them 4 behind us, so they need 4 wins. The odd team doing that is possible but it would need 3 teams to do it and I'm not sure that's ever happened before. A glance at the form table shows from 14 downwards only 2 teams have done that (Us and Brentford)

 

We aren't safe yet but I see us similar to Brentford when people were saying they'll be dragged into it, just a win buys us so much breathing space, after Spurs we have 3 home games on the bounce, that's where we will hopefully be safe.

 

They don't have to win on the bounce, Leeds and Everton need to win just two of their remaining 9/11 matches respectively to pass us in the circumstance you're talking about.

 

The difference is that we're got the most difficult run-in of any of the clubs down there and a terrible record against the top half. We could easily not win another match.

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6 minutes ago, Shadow Puppets said:

That's some spectacular negativity like. You do realise we've just been on a great run, performed decent-excellent for 9 games in a row, and been let down by a poor half of football last night / running out of steam.

 

Of course we're more than capable of picking up another win or two out of the remaining fixtures. I'm backing us to get past 40 points.

Spectacular negativity :lol: Howeh man, talk about going over the top. I didn't say we weren't capable, just that there weren't many matches I really fancy us in, big difference.

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37 minutes ago, Jackie Broon said:

 

Everton, Leeds and Brentford are easily going to do enough to pass us if that happens, then it just needs to be one from Burnley and Watford. Burnley only need two more wins than us to make our match with them a relegation decider in that circumstance.

 

We have a really tough run-in and we're not out of danger yet.

We are ten points clear of Burnley, how would 2 more wins than us be enough for them to make our match a relegation decider ?

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2 minutes ago, SUPERTOON said:

We are ten points clear of Burnley, how would 2 more wins than us be enough for them to make our match a relegation decider ?

 

Sorry, two wins and a draw. Unlikely they'll pick up 7 more points than us in their 10 fixtures before they play us, but on the other hand they have more winnable looking matches than us and a better record of getting points against teams towards the top of the table. 

 

I still think we're very likely to pick up enough points to be safe before that last match but I think we've possibly got a bit carried away and complacent about our position, and there were signs last night that the players have too. We're still in danger.

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2 minutes ago, Jackie Broon said:

 

Sorry, two wins and a draw. Unlikely they'll pick up 7 more points than us in their 10 fixtures before they play us, but on the other hand they have more winnable looking matches than us and a better record of getting points against teams towards the top of the table. 

 

I still think we're very likely to pick up enough points to be safe before that last match but I think we've possibly got a bit carried away and complacent about our position, and there were signs last night that the players have too. We're still in danger.

They also have Everton and Watford to play, and Everton also have Watford so that’s 3 teams below us who can’t all pick up wins from those games 

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Mental how Leeds, Burnley, Everton, basically everyone below us are all shit and destined to go down when we win, all of a sudden become Brazil 1970 when we get beat. 

 

 

Edited by TBG

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44 minutes ago, Jackie Broon said:

 

They don't have to win on the bounce, Leeds and Everton need to win just two of their remaining 9/11 matches respectively to pass us in the circumstance you're talking about.

 

The difference is that we're got the most difficult run-in of any of the clubs down there and a terrible record against the top half. We could easily not win another match.

I get that but I'm just referring to them even getting past us and that is on the worst case scenario of us just losing our next set of games

 

Get a win from Spurs and the 3 home games that follow then those clubs need to do even more, a couple of wins and that's us safe

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Despite giving that annoying 3 points to Everton yesterday, I wouldn't swap places with anyone currently below us.

 

In Everton's case, I certainly wouldn't swap their two games in hand for actual points on the board. If anything, those games could be a hindrance in the run-in.

 

Our April fixtures look pretty hectic, but imagine having that, arguably a tougher run in, and with two extra games to cram in as well. Some weeks they'll be playing every 3 or 4 days, and as we've just found, that can catch up with you with fitness, injuries, prep time for the next game etc.

 

Anyway, still hoping that one of Leeds's games in hand gets used up with zero points added tonight.

 

It'll be fun to watch the scrap down there with us well away from it. More fun than the title 'race' or the 'who cares' top 4 spots, for me anyway.

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7 minutes ago, Abacus said:

Despite giving that annoying 3 points to Everton yesterday, I wouldn't swap places with anyone currently below us.

 

In Everton's case, I certainly wouldn't swap their two games in hand for actual points on the board. If anything, those games could be a hindrance in the run-in.

 

Our April fixtures look pretty hectic, but imagine having that, arguably a tougher run in, and with two extra games to cram in as well. Some weeks they'll be playing every 3 or 4 days, and as we've just found, that can catch up with you with fitness, injuries, prep time for the next game etc.

 

Anyway, still hoping that one of Leeds's games in hand gets used up with zero points added tonight.

 

It'll be fun to watch the scrap down there with us well away from it. More fun than the title 'race' or the 'who cares' top 4 spots, for me anyway.

Leeds don’t have any games in hand 

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1 hour ago, SUPERTOON said:

Leeds don’t have any games in hand 

Ah, you're right!

 

I must have mixed them up with Burnley in my head somehow re teams with games in hand. Had a shocker there ?

 

 

Edited by Abacus
.

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