The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Problem is that three teams go down. 
 

Hopefully be a bit more relaxed after the next couple of games and we’ll see everyone bedding in quickly. 

[Holmesy]

I would have the confidence in Wood to score some goals if we had any supply to him at all. Who is going to put the ball on a plate for him?

Bruno is capable of playing balls through but to who? Wood doesn't have the pace to get on the end of them and Wilson is crocked.  Creativity should've been given equal priority to defensive reinforcements in this transfer window and i really hope it doesn't come back to bite us

 

[Yorkie]

31 minutes ago, Conjo said:

 

I get why people are nervous as there's no guarantees in football, but I still don't understand how you can look at the table, look at Norwich, Watford, Burnley, look at their transfer business in January and think that we somehow are more likely to go down than them.

 

If you count Hodgson as a signing then, on paper, ours and Watford' s recruitment is probably pretty even. 

[alexf]

Yeah alot may depend on if Hodgson can get Watford picking up results. Which will make our task infinitely harder. 

[Gallowgate Toon]

I'm not convinced it's quite a 4-team mini league anymore, tbh. Some very catchable teams.

[Mikky]

Goes without saying that Everton is massive now - a win and it’s game on

 

6 wins from 17 keeps us up imo - with a couple of draws thrown in 

[Conjo]

13 minutes ago, Yorkie said:

 

If you count Hodgson as a signing then, on paper, ours and Watford' s recruitment is probably pretty even. 

 

and we signed Howe, just before the window. 

 

All I know is that if I look at the squads, I'd rather have ours than any of theirs, and I think we have the better manager of them all, thus more likely to stay up than them.

[Yorkie]

2 minutes ago, Gallowgate Toon said:

I'm not convinced it's quite a 4-team mini league anymore, tbh. Some very catchable teams.

 

Brentford could get dragged in. Coming up they've got Man City, Crystal Palace and Arsenal; if they don't pick up at least three points there - with the likes of us hopefully making a few gains in that time - they've then got what becomes a very nervous run against us, Norwich and Burnley. Could be right in the mix by early March. 

 

Everton have got two six-pointers in a row (if we count) against us and then Leeds but I imagine they'll pull away pretty soon, they've got too much quality. 

 

Leeds is the other one who you can realistically see getting sucked in but you'd imagine the Bielsa effect might keep their heads above it. 

[madras]

24 minutes ago, Holmesy said:

I would have the confidence in Wood to score some goals if we had any supply to him at all. Who is going to put the ball on a plate for him?

Bruno is capable of playing balls through but to who? Wood doesn't have the pace to get on the end of them and Wilson is crocked.  Creativity should've been given equal priority to defensive reinforcements in this transfer window and i really hope it doesn't come back to bite us

 

Quite often when the ball is good enough it's the timing of the run rather than the pace of it that makes the difference.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by madras

[Yorkie]

2 minutes ago, Conjo said:

 

and we signed Howe, just before the window. 

 

All I know is that if I look at the squads, I'd rather have ours than any of theirs, and I think we have the better manager of them all, thus more likely to stay up than them.

 

Don't disagree and I'd rather have Howe than Hodgson, just think it's a good appointment. The onus is really on the manager now to make the marginal gains because he's been sufficiently backed and the squad should definitely have enough to stay up. 

[The Prophet]

4+ points from Villa and Everton please.

[hakka]

2 minutes ago, madras said:

Quite often when the ball is good enough it's the timing of the run rather than the pace of it that makes the difference.

 

 

 

 

Yeah it's definitely timing. Sheringham was never pacey, but had an amazing knack of knowing where to be at the right time. Kept him scoring goals late in to his 30's.

[Mikky]

Just now, The Prophet said:

4+ points from Villa and Everton please.

Will take - just keep the points ticking over 

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Looking at 10 points before we play Chelsea. 12 are doable if things click quickly

[PlymouthGeordie]

58 minutes ago, Conjo said:

 

I get why people are nervous as there's no guarantees in football, but I still don't understand how you can look at the table, look at Norwich, Watford, Burnley, look at their transfer business in January and think that we somehow are more likely to go down than them.

 

I wouldn't say more likely but Burnley's games in hand are a concern.

 

It's also annoying that Watford and Burnley face each other this weekend. I really don't want Hodgson getting off to a winning start as relegation battles are his forte. Equally, a Burnley win and they go level with us but with 2 games in hand. Anything other than a draw is a bad result.

 

We need a minimum of 4 points from Everton & Villa and that won't be easy.

[Andy]

1 hour ago, Ankles Bennett said:

He will score more goals for Burnley than Wood will for us so they may win those games they have in hand over us and drag us back down even if we win a couple of games.

 

There's no guarantee he will, like. Scoring goals in Holland and Germany is rarely a great indicator of how strikers will perform over here. 

[madras]

1 hour ago, Ankles Bennett said:

He will score more goals for Burnley than Wood will for us so they may win those games they have in hand over us and drag us back down even if we win a couple of games.

It's quite possible he will, more so because he'll probably start every game he's fit. Wood will hopefully start about 6.

[Dandy Man]

Think there is a (outside) chance that Crystal Palace get dragged into this too, they've been looking bad enough last few weeks and not convinced Viera is a brilliant manager - sort of went to shit towards end of his stint managing Nice too. Next two games away to Norwich and Brentford then home to Chelsea, will be under bit of pressure if not getting any results.

[54]

Bit of a slow work day so figured I would have a look at all the teams around us next 5 days, as well as there form:

 

Newcastle (Form: LLDDW; 5 points)

Everton (H) 08/02/22

Aston Villa (H) 13/02/22

West Ham (A) 19/02/22

Brentford (A) 26/02/22

Brighton (H) 05/03/22

 

Transfers In: Trippier, Wood, Guimarães, Targett, Burn

Transfers Out: White, Woodman, Anderson, M Longstaff, Hendrik

 

Burnley (Form LDLLD; 2 Points)

Watford (H) 05/02/22

Man United (H) 05/02/22

Liverpool (H) 13/02/22

Brighton (A) 19/02/22

Crystal Palace (A) 26/02/22

 

Transfers In: Weghorst

Transfers Out: Glennon, Wood, Vaughan

 

Watford (Form LLLDL; 1 Point)

Burnley (A) 05/02/22

West Ham (A) 08/02/22

Brighton (H) 12/02/22

Aston Villa (A) 19/02/22

Man United (A) 26/02/22

 

Transfers In: Okoye, Kamara, Samir, Kayembe, Kalu

Transfers Out: Okoye, Dahlberg, Cassidy

 

Norwich (Form LLLWW; 6 Points)

Crystal Palace (H) 09/02/22

Man City (H) 12/02/22

Liverpool (A) 19/02/22

Southampton (A) 25/02/22

Brentford (H) 05/03/22

 

Transfers In: None

Transfers Out: Dickson-Peters, Omotoye, Mumba, Bushiri, Ahadme, Hernandez, Martin, Soto, Cantwell, Hugill

 

Everton (Form LDLLL; 1 Point)

Newcastle (A) 08/02/22

Leeds (H) 12/02/22

Southampton (A) 19/02/22

Man City (H) 26/02/22

Tottenham (A) 07/03/22

 

Transfers In: Mykolenko, Patterson, El Ghazi, Van der Beek, Alli

Transfers Out: Digne, Simms, Warrington

 

Leeds (Form LLWWL; 6 Points)

Aston Villa (A) 09/02/22

Everton (A) 12/02/22

Man United (H) 20/02/22

Tottenham (H) 26/02/22

Leicester (A) 05/03/22

 

Transfers In: Fernandez

Transfers Out: Edmondson, Drameh, Galloway, Kamwa

 

Brentford (Form WLLLL; 3 points)

Man City (A) 09/02/22

Crystal Palace (H) 12/02/22

Arsenal (A) 19/02/22

Newcastle (H) 26/02/22

Norwich (A) 05/22/22

 

Transfers In: Lossl, Eriksen, Mpongo, Sotana

Transfers Out: Brook, Adams, Gunnarsson, Valencia, Thompson, Bidstrup, Goode, Racic, Forss

 

Looking at everything as a whole, these next five games are key for multiple teams, with all the teams in the mix playing some of there competitors, if we can get 7 points from out five games, I think we'll be in good stead, but with out additions there is no reason as to why we can't get more then that, in doing so we will also pull down both Brentford and Leeds. I would actually be slightly worried if I was Brentford, they have some key games coming up, if they don't get anything from them, given there form, they could be right in the mire. 

 

I also didn't realize Norwich hadn't strengthened at all this window, and even got weaker by letting Cantwell go, I know they're in good form, but thats not going to last, and having additional bodies in would have been beneficial for them given there starting team isn't blessed with Premier League quality. Same with Leeds, although I personally think Bielsa will see them clear.

 

Everton have tricky fixtures too, if they lose to us, they could be in a fight they where not expecting, like us in 2009 if a whole team thinks they're too good to go down, and they don't have the grit required for the fight, then that in itself can get them looking into the precipice. 

 

Watford and Burnley, have some tough fixture, hopefully they draw at the weekend, and then both go on a losing run, although the Hodgson factor will be interesting, he knows what to do in this sort of situation, and while getting on a bit, he can set up a good counter attacking team, and will utilize both Sarr and Dennis well, I think they're the team we need to be wary off. Burnley need to get Weghorst firing instantly or they're the most certain to go down imo, even with there game in hands.

 

Either way, I think we can be relatively confident in our chances, although its going to be a very close run thing. Going to be interesting. 

[Bada Bing]

Howe has got what, 10 points from 10 games since arriving? With 17 games left, even a marginal post-transfer window improvement of say 20 points from that lot gets us to 35, which will probably be enough (just). We have a better squad that Burnley. Watford and Norwich. No excuses if we go down. 

 

4.

[Dr Venkman]

12 hours ago, HTT II said:

Anyway, we need to stop worrying about what others do and don’t do, we just need to get as many points as we can from every game that is left and if that’s enough, great, if not, then so be it!

Aye, good luck with that 

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Everton are poor and have appointed a manager proven not to be able to organise a defence. Two loan CAMs that may or may not do anything. I would still be worried if I was them.

[SiLvOR]

23 hours ago, 54 said:

Everton have tricky fixtures too, if they lose to us, they could be in a fight they where not expecting, like us in 2009 if a whole team thinks they're too good to go down, and they don't have the grit required for the fight, then that in itself can get them looking into the precipice. 

This bit is what I keep reflecting on, too. Everton really do have a lot of the same ingredients we did in 2009. 

Still shitting it to be honest. Although I don't rate Hodgson at all, he might be able to do enough to keep Watford up. 

[Lush Vlad]

5 or a 6.  

I still worry about the lack of goals.  But we do look much improved on paper.

[RodneyCisse]

The fact Watford’s hired Roy just makes it all seem a little too easy now.