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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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1 hour ago, LV said:

I cannot stop looking at the league table :lol:

 

It's certainly makes better viewing than it did on Nov 27th after the loss to Arsenal. 

 

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/27-november-2021/

 

7 points behind Watford then, having played a game more, and -10 worse off in terms of goal difference. Now GD is the same, and we are 3 points clear of them, with us having the game in hand. 

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57 minutes ago, RodneyCisse said:

We’re better than the other 3 contenders, Howe’s got us on just over a point a game now which would be enough between now and the end of the season to stay up.

4th favourites to o down @5/2

A point or win tomorrow would see those odds go well up.

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Tomorrow is the big one. Win and I'd back us to get a point at West Ham and we won't look back all season.

 

If we win and Burnley lose tomorrow, they'll be 7 behind with 2 games in hand.  Even if we only won another 3 games all season (after tomorrow), Burnley would have to win 6 of their final 17 after winning only 1 of their first 21 to catch us. It would be borderline impossible for them.

 

I don't think Norwich will sustain their mini revival. Watford, despite being so poor are the biggest threat purely because at some point Hodgson will get them to shit house a few 1-0 wins.

 

If we win tomorrow, I'm a 2. Draw and I'm a 3 and if we lose I'm a 5.

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12 minutes ago, Paullow said:

 

It's certainly makes better viewing than it did on Nov 27th after the loss to Arsenal. 

 

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/27-november-2021/

 

7 points behind Watford then, having played a game more, and -10 worse off in terms of goal difference. Now GD is the same, and we are 3 points clear of them, with us having the game in hand. 

 

Christ, Watford have only gotten two points since then

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1 hour ago, Paullow said:

 

It's certainly makes better viewing than it did on Nov 27th after the loss to Arsenal. 

 

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/27-november-2021/

 

7 points behind Watford then, having played a game more, and -10 worse off in terms of goal difference. Now GD is the same, and we are 3 points clear of them, with us having the game in hand. 

That's an interesting site.

 

Reminder that when we dispensed with the Cabbage's services we were bottom, having amassed two points and scored two goals in eight PL games.

 

www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/20-october-2021/

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Burnley a bigger risk than Watford. 
 

their previous 2 managers aren’t bad. The team is just not good enough.  Maybe Sarr is a game changer.  But Claudio can coach a defence and they were hopeless. Couple clean sheets with Roy but not scored a single goal. They needed reinforcements not a new manager. 
 

burnley can win 6 of 18 games. They’ve drawn half their games anyway, like us they don’t need a drastic uptick to turn the tide in performances. But they don’t have the points on the board. 
 

Norwich don’t score enough goals to win another 6. 

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Norwich is now the team that looks most likely to give it a proper go at staying up! They were pretty decent against Man City for the first 20 minutes. Burnley and Watford are both worse than we are but arguably better than Norwich. It just feels like Norwich have some fight in them since Dean Smith took over.

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Villa is exactly the type of fixture that does us every time, hopes up after a couple of good wins, everyone predicting another win and that we are going to be safe, then...

 

I'd take a draw tomorrow, but would like to think we could win 2 of the 3 after that.

 

As the teams below us look screwed in different ways, but also still have the chance of getting safe until we pull clear.

 

 

Edited by Karjala

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I expect all the teams at the bottom to start picking up points as their motivation exceeds that of teams comfortable in midtable, but we're still the best placed. We have the best players, probably the best manager, and by far the best form. 

 

The three new defenders mean our defensive record so far, which includes things like Woodman conceding twelve in four games under Bruce, doesn't tell us very much. We've conceded just three in the past four games.

 

Just the "fail to score" stat, but we are 23%, miles ahead of Norwich 62%, Watford 52% and Burnley 45%. They are not going to pick up wins without massive improvement there. Norwich didn't buy a striker in January and Burnley merely replaced the one we poached off them.

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9 hours ago, midds said:

I don't think Burnley will catch us, the gap is 4 points and they've only won 1 all season. They've got 2 games in hand but I'm not sure who they're going to beat in order to catch us. 

 

Watford look awful, have played a game more and are already 3 points behind. They'll not pass us. 

 

Norwich are the only one in slightly worried about. They're a point behind, 2 if you factor in their awful gd, have played 2 games more than us and only scored 14 goals in 24 but they look like they're making a bit of a fist of it. I just don't think they'll get 2 more points than us in 2 games fewer. 

 

A win tomorrow almost certainly sorts us out and puts clear space between the bottom 3. We're not there yet but I reckon I'm about a 2.5 right now


Fucking love this energy even if I don’t totally agree. :lol: 

 

Hell yeah @midds

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27 minutes ago, Stottie said:

I expect all the teams at the bottom to start picking up points as their motivation exceeds that of teams comfortable in midtable, but we're still the best placed. We have the best players, probably the best manager, and by far the best form. 

 

The three new defenders mean our defensive record so far, which includes things like Woodman conceding twelve in four games under Bruce, doesn't tell us very much. We've conceded just three in the past four games.

 

Just the "fail to score" stat, but we are 23%, miles ahead of Norwich 62%, Watford 52% and Burnley 45%. They are not going to pick up wins without massive improvement there. Norwich didn't buy a striker in January and Burnley merely replaced the one we poached off them.


Hell yeah. Love being able to look at the stats from the season like this. 12 in 4 from Woodman is wild, I totally forgot about that. I think that plays into the 21 points dropped and that our position seems and feels more temporary and false than it actually is.
 

Looking forward to the second half of the season, staying up, and pushing on. Howay the fucking lads y’all. 

 

 

Edited by cubaricho

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2 hours ago, Stottie said:

I expect all the teams at the bottom to start picking up points as their motivation exceeds that of teams comfortable in midtable, but we're still the best placed. We have the best players, probably the best manager, and by far the best form. 

 

The three new defenders mean our defensive record so far, which includes things like Woodman conceding twelve in four games under Bruce, doesn't tell us very much. We've conceded just three in the past four games.

 

Just the "fail to score" stat, but we are 23%, miles ahead of Norwich 62%, Watford 52% and Burnley 45%. They are not going to pick up wins without massive improvement there. Norwich didn't buy a striker in January and Burnley merely replaced the one we poached off them.

If we beat Villa today they'll be more determined to beat Watford next week. Lose and they may relax a little.

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Might be an odd opinion but I actually like having the harder games near the end. Arsenal and Liverpool at home for example, have bigger chances of being dead rubbers for them at that point, and that can give you a better chance to get something than if you played them earlier 

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I think injuries (or avoiding them) will be key going forward. It’s incredible how 1 win can change your outlook but while we’re still 1 set of poor results away from being dragged back in, I think anything less than a 4 is a bit bullish at this point.

 

I’m at a 5 currently. Each win will obviously knock progressively more off my number.

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Win today and we are as likely to go down as Leeds, Everton or Brentford IMO. We will have the wind in our sails, which is crucial.

 

FWIW I think we probably draw which will keep us ticking along.

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49 minutes ago, xLiaaamx said:

Might be an odd opinion but I actually like having the harder games near the end. Arsenal and Liverpool at home for example, have bigger chances of being dead rubbers for them at that point, and that can give you a better chance to get something than if you played them earlier 


We “might” also have Wilson back for those games 

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3 minutes ago, STM said:

Win today and we are as likely to go down as Leeds, Everton or Brentford IMO. We will have the wind in our sails, which is crucial.

 

FWIW I think we probably draw which will keep us ticking along.


Yeah it’s interesting, Brentford go to Arsenal next weekend before facing us at home. Be interesting to see how the table looks before we play Brighton at home. 

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We just don't look like a team that's going to go down right now.  When you have the players fighting for every ball, scrapping for every point it's half the battle won.  Compare this group and their attitude to 08/09 or 15/16 and it's night and day.

 

3 for me and that's just because we might get fucked by injuries.

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Down to a 4 as well, one or two injuries can put a spanner in but form is key and 3 wins in a row does a lot for a team. Bruno needs more minutes, his qualities are clear but while results are coming in guess it's not a critical issue

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