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Newcastle United vs. Liverpool - 18/02/23 @ 5:30pm (Sky Sports)


HaydnNUFC

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3 hours ago, The Prophet said:

For me, the biggest positive about this is that Liverpool are incapable of playing a low block, so we should get chances (whether we take them or not is another matter).

 

Even against a really poor Everton attack, Matip was getting dragged all over the show. Even if VvD returns, it appears that Liverpool's midfield press simply isn't protecting the back four, hence why they shipped three at Brentford, Bright on and Wolves in their last three away trips.

 

They did seem pretty open last night and pulled all over, like you say.  

 

My worries going into the game was their pace and directness in wide areas.  Watching last night hardly calmed those fears.  Nunez, for all that his finishing has become a bit of a running joke.  Is a really talented player.  Rapid, strong and plays off both feet.  Both full backs bomb on and we all know how good Salah is.  

 

Even if VVD is back.  He was having a rough season by his standards and he won't be sharp and match fit, I wouldn't have thought.  So I hope the likes of Wilson, Almiron, Isak, ASM and Gordon can cause problems to their back 4 and are able to exploit the acres of space we should find. 

 

 

Edited by Lush Vlad

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Newcastle home       Liverpool away

W5-D4-L0                 W2-D-2-L6

 

Newcastle last five                        Liverpool last five

Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle         Liverpool 2-0 Everton

Newcastle 1-1 West Ham              Wolves 3-0 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle      Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea

Newcastle 1-0 Fulham                   Brighton 3-0 Liverpool

Arsenal 0-0 Newcastle                  Brentford 3-1 Liverpool

 

Newcastle v top half     Liverpool v top half

W5-D4-L1                      W3-D3-L4

 

The first big takeaway here is that we've been really good against top half teams at home, likely because a majority of them don't come to sit in. Wins against Brentford, Chelsea, Fulham, along with a high scoring draw v City makes for good reading. Promisingly, we played half a game against Fulham without Bruno. We switched to a 4-2-3-1 with Isak playing behind Wilson in that one and I'd quite like to see it again. I think Isak's pace and movement could cause havoc in a ropey Liverpool backline.

 

The other thing of note is Liverpool's struggles on the road. A rare away win at Spurs was their only top half scalp with defats at Arsenal, Man United, Brentford and Brighton, along with a draw at Fulham. The problem really stems for the defence as they've conceded a total of 14 goals across those 6 games. Worryingly for them though, their attacking output has been well down in recent games too.

 

Hard to call this. We'll be trying a relatively unfamiliar shape, without Bruno. Depending on your framing, that could make us sloppy and disjointed or unpredictable, full of new ideas. Meanwhile Liverpool got a morale boosting win last night and although their struggles have been largely on the road, they're still a side packed with quality. In a battle of two tired looking presses, I think an evening game at SJP might just be what we need to put a bit of extra gas in the tank and while Liverpool are dangerous, it's difficult to overlook their defensive frailties. We'll create chances, it's whether we take them: 2-1.

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Big game for the interim midfield, as Gakpo seemed to drop in as a false 9 a lot last night. Assuming we go 4-2-3-1, not sure who'll play #10 but they'll have a decent defensive job to do. I think it's important to keep ASM out left against TAA as that's his bet for success (not sure how well Salah tracks back these days either). Maybe Gordon behind Isak (presuming Wilson makes the bench along with Willock) is a good fit.

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1 minute ago, Gallowgate Toon said:

Big game for the interim midfield, as Gakpo seemed to drop in as a false 9 a lot last night. Assuming we go 4-2-3-1, not sure who'll play #10 but they'll have a decent defensive job to do. I think it's important to keep ASM out left against TAA as that's his bet for success (not sure how well Salah tracks back these days either). Maybe Gordon behind Isak (presuming Wilson makes the bench along with Willock) is a good fit.

If Willock has a hammy then hes not going to be back for a few weeks.

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15 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Liverpool had the second best Xg over the last 6 games from open play. You have to figure eventually they’ll start to go in with the quality they have in attack. 

 

They still have a lot of good players, and the worry is that they have won just in time to gain some confidence before playing us. I know we are better than Everton, but I'm not overconfident about this one, not with Bruno still missing, and now Willock as well. Just a bit too much disruption to our midfield at the wrong time.

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15 hours ago, The College Dropout said:

Liverpool had the second best Xg over the last 6 games from open play. You have to figure eventually they’ll start to go in with the quality they have in attack. 

 

That doesn't tell the whole story mind. The Villa win generated by far the most xG for them, then until yesterday it had declined to circa 1.3 for three games in a row (in that time they scored once). For context our xG was higher than that v Palace and Bournemouth. 

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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32 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

That doesn't tell the whole story mind. The Villa win generated by far the most xG for them, then until yesterday it had declined to circa 1.3 for three games in a row (in that time they scored once). For context our xG was higher than that v Palace and Bournemouth. 

 

 

 

While that may be true. They are 2nd for total Xg from open play for the entire season while playing 1-2 games less than most teams. 3rd overall. With the quality they have, at some point it's going to click going forward and it hasn't yet.

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2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Still not sure why open play xG is more relevant like. Pens you'd understand, but some teams (like us) get tons of set pieces in matches.

 

Pity we're absolutely fucking hopeless at set pieces these days.

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2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Still not sure why open play xG is more relevant like. Pens you'd understand, but some teams (like us) get tons of set pieces in matches.

Because the vast majority of goals come from open play ?

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Just now, Kid Icarus said:

Depending upon which team it is, that's not necessarily true at all like. Even then if it's massively effecting a team's xG then it's surely relevant.

It's why I put a question mark. It was more a query than an answer. Is there a break down somewhere of each teams goals from open play and set pieces ?

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2 hours ago, Kid Icarus said:

Still not sure why open play xG is more relevant like. Pens you'd understand, but some teams (like us) get tons of set pieces in matches.

When comparing us to Liverpool you’re comparing Burn, Botman, Joelinton and Zachary attacking set plays compared to chances in open play falling to Salah, Nunez and co.  
 

I personally back Salah and Nunez and Jota etc. to find a scoring touch at some point. If we’re relying on the likes of Dan Burn to convert set pieces to score goals, I think we’ll struggle.  
 

I also think teams chasing top 4 need to offer real threat from open play like we did earlier in the season.  
 

And generally open play goals count for 65-75% of non-penalty goals so a better indication of attacking fret. 

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1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

When comparing us to Liverpool you’re comparing Burn, Botman, Joelinton and Zachary attacking set plays compared to chances in open play falling to Salah, Nunez and co.  
 

I personally back Salah and Nunez and Jota etc. to find a scoring touch at some point. If we’re relying on the likes of Dan Burn to convert set pieces to score goals, I think we’ll struggle.  
 

I also think teams chasing top 4 need to offer real threat from open play like we did earlier in the season.  
 

And generally open play goals count for 65-75% of non-penalty goals so a better indication of attacking fret. 

 

Heard the other day that Fulham have by far the best conversion rate from set pieces in the league and that is scoring 1 in 15. Generally set pieces are a poor source of goals and good chances for most teams. So feel like we should be scoring more with Trippers delivery and the size of our squad mind. 

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35 minutes ago, Jaqen said:

 

Heard the other day that Fulham have by far the best conversion rate from set pieces in the league and that is scoring 1 in 15. Generally set pieces are a poor source of goals and good chances for most teams. So feel like we should be scoring more with Trippers delivery and the size of our squad mind. 

The problem is none of our big lads are effective at putting it in the net from set pieces. Lascelles is probably our best player for attacking the ball in the air offensively.

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18 hours ago, Sima said:

 

Pity we're absolutely fucking hopeless at set pieces these days.

 

We won a lot of points from Trippier set pieces last season, some of them he scored directly, not just great delivery for others. He must be due a goal or two soon, this game would be a great one to get it.

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Off the top of my head, we've scored:

 

Direct free kick v Man City (Trippier)

Corner v Brentford (Bruno)

Corner v Villa (Wilson)

Corner v Leicester (Big Joe)

 

Then Botman hit the post v Fulham, leading to a tap in for Longstaff.

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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6 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Off the top of my head, we've scored:

 

Direct free kick v Man City (Trippier)

Corner v Brentford (Bruno)

Corner v Villa (Wilson)

Corner v Leicester (Big Joe)

 

Then Botman hit the post v Fulham, leading to a top in for Longstaff.

Wood v Tranmere as well [emoji38]

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14 hours ago, BoSelecta said:

The problem is none of our big lads are effective at putting it in the net from set pieces. Lascelles is probably our best player for attacking the ball in the air offensively.


Do wonder whether we should have brought Lascelles on for last 10-15 mins when drawing against teams with a low block

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3 hours ago, TRon said:

 

We won a lot of points from Trippier set pieces last season, some of them he scored directly, not just great delivery for others. He must be due a goal or two soon, this game would be a great one to get it.

We have one of the best set peice takers in the world, and a load of absolute units. I cant understand how we dont convert more. Feels like Schar gets on the end of about 2 a game.

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