Relegationometer

[Kaizero]

Fulham won't catch us they've had their chances

 

Spurs (h)

Liverpool (a)

City (H)

Leeds (h)

Villa (a)

Wolves (h)

Arsenal (a)

Chelski (A)

It'll be done before needed to beat burnley and  palace

 

Agains, this is the dumbest argument. Every team has to play every team, there's no such f***ing thing as a list of hard fixtures coming up. Everyone has to play all the teams twice. f*** off.

 

Agree but also disagree . Its a moot point but you'd much rather have Sheff Utd, Burnley, Southampton and West Brom as your remaining or next 4 games than Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea and Leicester wouldn't you?

 

You have to play them at some point anyway, it doesn't matter, as the other teams also has to play them "Oh my, we have to play Man City next, that's bad for us" .... wait, what? All the other teams also has to play Man City at some point.

 

At the start of the season, I’d agree with you. But it’s not true at this stage of the season at all.

 

If we were level on points and had 4 games left of the season again: Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea & Liverpool whilst Fulham had 4 games against: Burnley, Brighton, WBA and Sheff Utd - why would it matter we’ve played the same teams over the course of the season? What it would mean is we have 4 really s*** hard games and they have 4 easy ones. It’d matter a lot.

 

If we were at a stage where they could overtake us and we had harder opponents than them during these weeks, we've clearly done a s*** job when we had the same fixtures. We still have to play the same teams twice.

 

Fwiw, Fulham played a 1-1 draw against Liverpool in their last fixture against them. It's the fixtures, we all have to f***ing play them to finish a season.

 

That’s all well and good but I don’t see how you can argue 4 fixtures against the top 4 teams doesn’t matter compared to 4 fixtures against the bottom 4 teams.

 

Of course you’re argument holds weight over the course of the season. But just looking at the final 4-6 fixtures in isolation, of course it matters. What you did in November doesn’t make your final 4 fixtures any easier/harder.

 

You'll have had that congestion of fixtures to look forward to ever since the fixtures for the season was announced. We also played a draw against Liverpool, fwiw. What you do in your fixtures matter, not the list the fixtures are set up in. On paper you'd think we could end up with 0 points and Fulham 12 if those were actual fixtures, in reality we could end up with more points than Fulham after those fixtures were done away with. Fulham will also have to play the same teams, so if you want to compare you need to compare Fulham against the four teams we'd play and us against the four teams they play - not those fixtures compared against eachother just because they're played at the same time. It's not hard.

[The Prophet]

You get what you deserve over the course of the season, but given the current state of play, of course the remaining fixtures matter.

[Kaizero]

You get what you deserve over the course of the season, but given the current state of play, of course the remaining fixtures matter.

 

Of the remaining 12 fixtures, we play the same teams as Fulham 7 times (the missing fixture is us vs them) - because, you know, we all play the same teams twice across one season. But, for the sake of argument, this is the difference:

 

Fulham - Man Utd, Wolves, Southampton and Chelsea.

Newcastle - West Brom, Brighton, West Ham and Leicester.

 

In the reverse fixtures of these, Fulham gained 1 point and we gained 6.

[The Prophet]

You get what you deserve over the course of the season, but given the current state of play, of course the remaining fixtures matter.

 

Of the remaining 12 fixtures, we play the same teams as Fulham 7 times (the missing fixture is us vs them) - because, you know, we all play the same teams twice across one season. But, for the sake of argument, this is the difference:

 

Fulham - Man Utd, Wolves, Southampton and Chelsea.

Newcastle - West Brom, Brighton, West Ham and Leicester.

 

In the reverse fixtures of these, Fulham gained 1 point and we gained 6.

 

Ah I get you

 

I misunderstood your initial point.

[GideonShandy]

It's all about your accumulation of points over the season.  I just learned that recently from S. Bruce.

[samptime29]

If Fulham get 0-1 points from next 2 games, would be very helpful. If we could just shitehouse a snide win at West Brom, we would actually have a solid chance of staying up.

[Guest]

Looking at our fixtures after Burnley, ouch.

 

We need 9 points from the next 5 games, can’t see anything from the 5 after that, then beat Sheff Utd before we go to Fulham. 12 points should do it?

[Paully]

I'm still confident of us staying up but perhaps not 'quite' (!) as confident as I was last time on here!

[Ketsbaia]

Might need Callum Wilson to pull us a win from those 'level 2' games - Aston Villa (H), West Ham (H), Tottenham (H), Arsenal (H).

 

One there, plus Sheff Utd and a couple of draws might be enough.

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Looking at our fixtures after Burnley, ouch.

 

We need 9 points from the next 5 games, can’t see anything from the 5 after that, then beat Sheff Utd before we go to Fulham. 12 points should do it?

 

Should be.

 

If we are ahead of Brighton after we play City then we stay up. Burnley maybe, although they have Sheff Utd (a) last game so could pick up 3 there.

 

I can't see more than 2 of us, Brighton, Burnley, Fulham getting more than a point per game between now and the end of the season so if we can get 12 before Fulham then we should be safe

[Colos Short and Curlies]

Might need Callum Wilson to pull us a win from those 'level 2' games - Aston Villa (H), West Ham (H), Tottenham (H), Arsenal (H).

 

One there, plus Sheff Utd and a couple of draws might be enough.

 

Obviously they are on a different league to us this season, but all 4 of those teams away from home are liable to a shocker. Shame we pull a shocker every game...

[Shearergol]

Didn't realise that Fulham have only lost as many games as Arsenal this season. So basically they struggle to score the goals to turn draws into wins, whereas we struggle to score the goals to turn losses into draws.

 

Yeah we're down.

[alexf]

Thinking about it. It should be piss easy to stay up this season. There's so much crap and Fulham, Sheffield Utd and west brom are doing their best to make it as easy as possible for us. Even Brighton and Burnley are still down here. Literally just need a few wins and that's it you stay up. But even that seems far beyond our ability with Bruce at the helm.

[St1pe]

Watching Fulham undeservedly lose to Spurs hasn’t done much for my hope. Surely they can’t keep up that level of performance without getting some wins for the remaining games?

[Ketsbaia]

Fulham look so threatening. For all this talk about only winning 4 all season, they've only lost 4 from 16.

 

As for West Brom, that was a big defeat. When they beat us, they're still 6 points behind with an extra game, much worse goal difference and tough games.

[et tu brute]

Watching Fulham undeservedly lose to Spurs hasn’t done much for my hope. Surely they can’t keep up that level of performance without getting some wins for the remaining games?

 

 

Hopefully a couple of defeats and a few goals against (likely) may knock them a bit. At the end of the day for all their decent play, they don’t look like scoring many goals. Depends if we can get something from two games which are winnable and that is more the issue as can’t see that happening.

[St1pe]

Watching Fulham undeservedly lose to Spurs hasn’t done much for my hope. Surely they can’t keep up that level of performance without getting some wins for the remaining games?

 

 

Hopefully a couple of defeats and a few goals against (likely) may knock them a bit. At the end of the day for all their decent play, they don’t look like scoring many goals. Depends if we can get something from two games which are winnable and that is more the issue as can’t see that happening.

 

That was my initial hope before the injuries. It’d begin to look insurmountable again. Can’t say I’m

expecting us to help ourselves out though.

[Nobody]

Ridiculous that I had nearly shit my pants over a ridiculous hand ball being given against Fulham against Spurs.

[Decky]

I think our best chance is getting above and breaking away from Brighton. Fulham really do look good and I expect them to stay up.

[Nobody]

Sunday is fucking huge now like. Best West Brom and Liverpool doing the business against Fulham and things look much, much better. Any other outcome on Sunday and we're still in big trouble.

[ExiledGeordie]

 

Yes Sunday is really a sliding doors moment. If they win I think they’ll go on and cobble together enough results/points particularly as Pool could beat Fulham. The gap could be 6. Lose and the implosion will continue

[Ben]

 

Yes Sunday is really a sliding doors moment. If they win I think they’ll go on and cobble together enough results/points particularly as Pool could beat Fulham. The gap could be 6. Lose and the implosion will continue

 

This

[samptime29]

Sunday is fucking huge now like. Best West Brom and Liverpool doing the business against Fulham and things look much, much better. Any other outcome on Sunday and we're still in big trouble.

 

It really is. Honestly think if we nibble a win, we stay up. If we don't, it's bad times.

[Wandy]

We aren't beating WBA. And as crazy as it might sound, I don't think Fulham losing last night did us any favours either. If they had put us in the bottom three the pressure for Bruce to be peddled would have been immense after not beating WBA. Now he will be allowed to plod on until it's too late. In short, we are going down IMO.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Fulham’s loss v Spurs doesn’t mean anything. They’re better than us, they’re in better form. Everything really comes down to how long Wilson is out, how bad we are crushed by the time he returns, how long the others are injured for etc.