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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)  

406 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to get relegated this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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3 more wins would do us now i think, so i'm a 2.

 

Seen loads of people betting on us finishing top half - we'd need at least 7 or 8 wins out of 15 for that, so i think that's highly unlikely!

 

5 or 6 more wins wouldn't be impossible though.

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37 minutes ago, ExiledGeordie said:

3-4. Losing Trippier for a long period would be a disaster at this stage (what with Wilson too) and I do still worry about us scoring goals. But we’ve got great spirit, St James is back to being a really difficult place to visit and we can grind out wins. 

Yes our goal threat still scares me, wood needs Asm/ willock closer to him imo to knock it down too

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8 hours ago, Johnny said:

 

Screenshot-2022-02-14-Premier-League-Tab

This is where I’m at I think, can’t see us scoring more than two goals before the end of the season and I think if I had to predict how many we’re likely to concede I’d say 34. Who are we getting our three draws against though? I can’t see it right now 

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6 minutes ago, gbandit said:

This is where I’m at I think, can’t see us scoring more than two goals before the end of the season and I think if I had to predict how many we’re likely to concede I’d say 34. Who are we getting our three draws against though? I can’t see it right now 

:lol: 

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I liked that graphic of the bottom half of the table on MOTD2. The last 5 games, the bottom 10 teams have only won 6 games between them, 3 of them are us.

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For me the key is we aren’t just winning we are showing good performances as well. Not over a full 90 yet but definitely in stages. Our shape out of possession was brilliant yesterday and considering the quality of villas attack I don’t think they had a shot on target ?

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Think both us and Brentford lose our next games but we will level on points with them the game when we play them after and we will still have 2 games in hand. 

 

For me we really need to finish above Brentford. If so we stay up comfortably enough.

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I think hes the biggest loss we could have had right now, it’s a real punt in the balls especially with Manquillo going out in the same game. Wood, Max and Joe the other 3 that are irreplaceable at the moment for one reason or another, fingers crossed we get a bit of luck with injuries for a few weeks.

 

 

Edited by Nine

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Relegation percentage Probability is as follows.

                        

                             PROB
                                %

 

Norwich              85.5%

 

Watford               83.3%            

 

Burnley                72.5%

 

Newcastle           19.6%

 

Brentford             16.1%

 

Leeds                  15.4% 

 

So looking very good to stay up.

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1 hour ago, prefabtoon said:

Relegation percentage Probability is as follows.

                        

                             PROB
                                %

 

Norwich              85.5%

 

Watford               83.3%            

 

Burnley                72.5%

 

Newcastle           19.6%

 

Brentford             16.1%

 

Leeds                  15.4% 

 

So looking very good to stay up.

 

FiveThirtyEight has it:

 

Norwich             87

Watford              80

Burnley              50

Newcastle         38

Leeds                 15

Everton              13

Brentford           10

 

I like your figures better

 

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10 hours ago, The Prophet said:

Trippier's injury hadn't changed anything for me, we've lost a very good player, but the mental shift in the dressing room and the momentum is going in one direction, with or without him.

 

Not sure about that.  I don't think we'll go down but you could see there was a big shift in the game when he went off.  We need leaders on the field along with quality, when he went off we suddenly had less of both and that's when Villa started pushing.  If not for a lucky VAR decision we'd have had one point, not three.

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