The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)

[GWN]

Just now, Dandy Man said:

We were never much shorter than a shade of odds on for all of January pretty much. Current odds of 9/4-5/2 would make us a great bet to go down if the 6/10 and 7/10 scores on here are to be believed.

 

 

It's more past let downs mate why we are so pessimistic,  I'm beginning to believe again.

[MrRaspberryJam]

I'd snap your hands off for a point on Sunday, but if we manage to get all 3 I think surely the team starts looking up the table as opposed to looking over their shoulder.

[Rich]

Down to a four now. More likely to stay up than go down, having been 50/50 previously. Howeay the lads.

[Abacus]

Think I was a 5 or a 6 before the transfer window shut.

 

I'm down to a 4 now, as I really like the fighting spirit in the team and we've now given ourselves a fighting chance points wise.

 

Lingering worries are because of Wilson's injury and that there's only Gayle if Wood gets injured. Also, as after last night St Max will now become even more of a marked man.

 

Though, hopefully Bruno settles fast and gives opposition teams something else to worry about. And another positive is if all else fails we've got some decent set piece threat now too.

[Dr Venkman]

6.5 after the transfer window. 5.5 now, I think we've made it look like a difficult but achievable task having previously looked like a nightmare. 5.5 because I think we're still susceptible to an injury crisis or some terrible luck with decisions/other results. All being equal though I think we stay up.

[Guest HTT II]

I’m at a five, or 50-50, it’s now in our own hands…

[RS]

Somehow we’re still in with a shout. If we get something from Villa we will be flying with confidence high. A loss will put the doubt back. 
 

Still to difficult to call but the investment by our new owners has given us real hope. 

[Guest HTT II]

Beat Villa and we can then start looking up and towards those just above us, including themselves!

[Sean]

Don't think I've ever given a score on this, but I felt we left ourselves with a 50/50 chance after the transfer window so it would be less than a 5 after last night

[HaydnNUFC]

On 04/02/2022 at 03:43, HaydnNUFC said:

Had a little look at 2018-19 as we had a similarly awful start to the season then, and did just as dismally in the cups. We had a 3 game winning streak in November (Watford at home, Bournemouth at home, Burnley away) but then after went on a run of 1 win in 9. That was up to matchweek 22, matchweek 22 for us this season is Everton on Tuesday. Big if, but if we can beat them and Villa at home, there's 3 back to back wins a la 2018-19. If we can do that we're only 1 win behind 2018-19 at the same stage, a season where we finished 13th on 45 points, 11 clear of 18th. Which was also after a January where we brought in a signing which transformed the mood around the club just as well as the team.

 

[Amir_9]

Beat Villa and I think we'll go on a run of decent form to see us through

[54]

We actually have the exact same amount of points then we did in the 2018/19 season as we do now. That season we ended up with 45 points, more of that please

[Fantail Breeze]

Just now, 54 said:

We actually have the exact same amount of points then we did in the 2018/19 season as we do now. That season we ended up with 45 points, more of that please

 

No team has ever survived with no wins in their first 14 games though™

[St1pe]

I’m down to about a 7 despite the last couple of wins. Burnley got a good point last night and have games in hand, a Norwich result tonight could potentially piss on a lot of positivity. I still think it’s a straight shootout between the 4 clubs at the bottom and I’m not confident enough yet to expect us to stay up. 

[Superior Acuña]

10 hours ago, et tu brute said:

Brentford could be this year’s team to drop like a stone. Would love to see Everton go down, but think they have too much quality for that

 

Palace is possible too. As I posted on other page, they've won fewer points than us since Howe came in - have been 4th bottom over that time period (9 points from 11 games). Though not particularly wanting that right now since want them to win today v Norwich. 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Inferior Acuña

[54]

Norwich have City and Burnley have Liverpool this weekend. Its a big IF, but if we can get a result against Villa and them two games go as expected, we'll be 4 points ahead of Norwich with a game in hand, and 7 points ahead Burnley, which nullifies there two games in hand they have on us, and we'd be at a minimumn 3 point ahead of Watford as we are currently. Could be a huge weekend.

[Fantail Breeze]

We don’t need to worry about other teams, who they’re playing or what their results are/will be.

 

It should be fairly routine from here like, starting with another three points on Sunday.

[Super Duper Branko Strupar]

Trying to decide what would be acceptable points-wise from the next 4 (Villa, West Ham, Brentford, Brighton). 6 I'd take, 7 I think is the aim. Anything else is a bonus. These next 4 games are a real chance for us to put some daylight between us and the bottom 3. Villa and Brighton at home I'd want 6. West Ham away is going to be tough. Brentford away just dont lose.

[samptime29]

Happy Palace equalised like. 

[Superior Acuña]

11 minutes ago, Super Duper Branko Strupar said:

Trying to decide what would be acceptable points-wise from the next 4 (Villa, West Ham, Brentford, Brighton). 6 I'd take, 7 I think is the aim. Anything else is a bonus. These next 4 games are a real chance for us to put some daylight between us and the bottom 3. Villa and Brighton at home I'd want 6. West Ham away is going to be tough. Brentford away just dont lose.

 

I think 5 would be a good haul remembering that we're still not very good. I'd prob have to be happy with a point at home to Villa. West Ham away is a big ask, we could get something but defeat seems very likely. Brentford's still an away game against a team above us, a point is decent there. Brighton are hard to beat, hope we can win of those two home games though. More than that and we should really end up climbing the table.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Inferior Acuña

[WillingtonMag]

If the season started from now I'd fancy us top half above Brighton and Southampton etc so have to fancy us to stay up comfortably.

[Superior Acuña]

Okay obsessing over this now. Updated table since Howe took over. Really makes me think Brentford and Palace will gradually get dragged in.

 

(played/points)

 

12 Newcastle United 11 13

13 Leeds United 12 12

14 Brentford 14 12

15 Norwich City 13 12

16 Leicester City 10 11

17 Crystal Palace 13 11

18 Everton 11 7

19 Burnley 9 6

20 Watford 12 5

 

 

edit: updated after Saturday games

 

 

Edited February 12, 2022 by Inferior Acuña

[DJ_NUFC]

8 minutes ago, Inferior Acuña said:

Okay obsessing over this now. Updated table since Howe took over. Really makes me think Brentford and Palace will gradually get dragged in.

 

(played/points)

10 Southampton 12 14

11 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 13

12 Newcastle United 11 13

13 Leeds United 11 12

14 Norwich City 12 12

15 Leicester City 9 11

16 Brentford 13 11

17 Crystal Palace 12 10

18 Burnley 9 6

19 Watford 11 15

20 Everton 10 34

 

Thank you for your service. 

[Shak]

Think Rafa was unlucky looking at their points per game there.

[Pata]

12 hours ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Main thing I’m worried about is Burnley’s attack now. Weghorst, Cornet, Rodriguez is more goal threat than we’ve got. 
 

But maybe both teams will end up staying up if someone like Everton or Brentford really implodes. 

 

Come on now.  Weghorst is an unknown in this league and could be a massive flop, Cornet is on some Bruce-esque lucky streak and 32-year-old Jay Rodriquez has scored 2 in his last 47 PL games.