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The Relegationometer™ (2023/24)


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I don’t think Watford winning would be the end of the world. Burnley are the ones in the bottom 3 I reckon have them most chance of staying up. 

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Watford have a wily manager and a couple of OK forwards.

 

Burnley have been here before, with a history of clawing their way out of it.

 

But on the other hand, if you were either of those two clubs you'd snap our hands off to swap positions with us right now.

 

I'm at a 2/3 whatever happens tonight. Beat Brentford and clamber past a couple more teams, and I'll be at around a 1.

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24 minutes ago, Decky said:


This is why I don’t understand people not being arsed if Watford win. I want the bottom 3 to lose every time they play. Getting closer to Palace doesn’t bother me, I’d take finishing 17th right now because this seasons a write off if we stay up anyway. We just need to survive and get stronger in the summer. 

I echo the very happy with 17th as potentially finishing 13th/14th, while it would look decent for Howe, is largely irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. I also want Watford to lose, but then I guess if they did win, Palace would be 4 points clear of us, another very winnable match passed up, to go along with recent draws against Brentford and Norwich, and they still have to come to SJP, so they would be in sight.

 

There's no advantage (to us) the likes of Brighton, Southampton, and probably still Leicester, losing to those in and around us, but Palace, while still very unlikely to go down even if they lose tonight, are a team that we can definitely keep in and around us, and possibly surpass. I still want them to beat Norwich though, as the current bottom 3 are the most likely to go down at this stage, so best for those lot to keep losing, and we are certainly not in the position to be picking and choosing who we might like to see stay up.

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Obviously it is ideal if the 3 teams below us get as few points from their remaining games as possible but my feeling is that Watford and Burnley are capable of putting some results together. On recent evidence we are performing to a higher level than the teams directly above us and I think that reality might not have fully sunk in yet but we should be aiming to get ahead of the ones above us rather than purely maintain our position above the ones below us. Also said it a few times but I think Palace are the ones being most overestimated in the relegation betting odds and they could be in big trouble in a few games time.

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5 minutes ago, Dandy Man said:

Obviously it is ideal if the 3 teams below us get as few points from their remaining games as possible but my feeling is that Watford and Burnley are capable of putting some results together. On recent evidence we are performing to a higher level than the teams directly above us and I think that reality might not have fully sunk in yet but we should be aiming to get ahead of the ones above us rather than purely maintain our position above the ones below us. Also said it a few times but I think Palace are the ones being most overestimated in the relegation betting odds and they could be in big trouble in a few games time.

Eddie’s only ? up the table :indi:

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Obviously we want the team to be clear by then but if we are 2 points behind Burnley on final day away, a win likely keeps up. We have a bit of insurance there imo.

 

Big opportunity Next 3 games. 4 points not a disaster. Ideally 6-7 would be fantastic 

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On 18/02/2022 at 22:22, robbo_11 said:

 

They should be able to get some points in the next two weeks, could probably define the season based on results. I'd imagine they could get 3-6 points out of these. We play three games in the same time period (West Ham a, Brentford a, Brighton h) and just need to match their points - I feel like we should get 3-6 also.

 

Brighton (a)

Tottenham (h)

Palace (a)

Leicester (h)

Chelsea (h)

 

This could be similar to the run Fulham went on when it seemed like they might apply pressure on the teams above. If they hold on they might exceed what I thought they would achieve, we just need to focus on ourselves.

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Think Burnley have a good chance of staying up. But surely anyone who thinks Burnley are staying up on the basis of their form also thinks we're staying up?

 

Tbf most had us and Burnley both staying up before their win tonight.

 

 

Edited by Inferior Acuña

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1 minute ago, Inferior Acuña said:

Think Burnley have a good chance of staying up. But surely anyone who thinks Burnley are staying up on the basis of their form also thinks we're staying up?

 

Tbf most had us and Burnley both staying up before their win tonight.

 

 

 

True enough. I went Norwich, Watford and Brentford.

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Just now, Inferior Acuña said:

Think Burnley have a good chance of staying up. But surely anyone who thinks Burnley are staying up on the basis of their form also thinks we're staying up?

 

Nah for some on here the same logic doesn't apply to us.

 

"Burnley are in great form and have two games in hand", but yeah we're in better form, above them and have a game in hand as well "bUT BUrnlEY".

 

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1 minute ago, Unbelievable said:

Starting to look like it’s between five teams for the final relegation spit now. A 2.


 

I will take that.

 

just said we were just about gone 2 months ago 

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Leeds have conceded 14 times in their last four games, two against teams right around them in the table. 

 

Since the beginning of December they have the joint worst goal difference (-18 w/ Norwich) and they have 2W, 2D, and 7L. There is basically no difference between them and Brentford over the last 2.5 months. 

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9 hours ago, Lush Vlad said:

 

But by and large, whenever Burnley play.  They look absolute shit, whilst hanging in and keeping it tight.  They never create much or see much of the ball.  Arsenal and Man U should have won those games and dominated for most of the game. 

 

I didn't mention Spurs' City result for that exact reason you mention.  But I think it is a bit more than that.  With the players that have returned from injury, got back up to speed and the two signings from Juve.  I think Spurs have too much for a shite Burnley side.  They are 8th and a good few games in hand on those above them.   

 

I'm certainly not one of those fans that seem to pay no attention to the results below us.  But if we are really worried about Burnley and what they are doing, then Lord help us. 

 

 

 


This is why I tend not to bet on football :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

Leeds have conceded 14 times in their last four games, two against teams right around them in the table. 

 

Since the beginning of December they have the joint worst goal difference (-18 w/ Norwich) and they have 2W, 2D, and 7L. There is basically no difference between them and Brentford over the last 2.5 months. 

 

In the time I wrote that they've conceded again. [emoji38]

 

Make that 15 in their last four and a -19 GD (worst in the league) since the beginning of December.

 

 

And another, christ. [emoji38]

 

16 goals conceded in their last four!

 

- 20 GD since December.

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On tonight's evidence:

Burnley look like a team pulling the right direction and can see them grinding out the results needed to survive.

Watford look horrific going forward and defending, I cannot see them getting out of it.

Leeds look a hot mess and are leaking goals all over the shop, not sure what to expect but Bielsa needs to work some magic.

My brief flirtation with idea of Palace getting sucked into things has also ended abruptly - enough decent attacking outlets to see themselves well safe.

 

Still as confident as I can be that we will steer clear of it with relative ease. 2 probably.

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Leeds are in big trouble but you have to expect they'll improve with Phillips and Bamford returning like.

 

Really hope I'm wrong but we needed another forward player in January and big slice of luck with injuries and we've had neither. 

 

See what Saturday brings anyway.

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