The Europeometer™ (2025/26)

[r0cafella]

1 minute ago, Guillaume said:

Chances of us winning 5 from these last 7? 

 

It'll be interesting to what NUFC turns up at Palace.

Despite my own doubts I wouldn't put it past Eddie to pull it out of the hat. 

[Coffee_Johnny]

This charted, preseason, when we were most likely to pick up points (based on opposition, whether home or away etc.) in order to finish 6th (blue columns). As you know we've been miles off. We are now sitting on 42 points at end of March (1.35 points per game) which is just below our average for the premiership era, which would be at this stage 43 points (1.40 ppg). 

 

We are also 5 points away from the average points return for a 7th place team. In short, that is quite a lot to make up in 7 games.

 

For the optimistic among us, a return of 2.3 ppg would take us to 58 points (average for 7th place finish). For the realists, the best we have ever done under Howe (admittedly for a whole half season) is 2.0ppg (last half of 2021-22; and first half of 2022-23). There may well have been times where we picked up 16 points in 7 games (off to check...).

 

Ok, there have been a few times we have picked up 16 points or more in 7 games, e.g. beginning of 2021, end of 2022, later in that 2022-23 season, once in 2023-24, Dec-Jan run 2024-25 and again later in that season. So it isn't impossible to imagine. 

 

We have never quite managed it, under Howe, for the last 7 games of the season though:

15 points in 2021-22

12 points in 2022-23

13 points in 2023-24

10 points in 2024-25.

 

Incidentally, the idea that we always do better at the end of the season isn't supported by the fact that the points return for the last 7 games in Howe's four seasons is worse than the season's average for two seasons (2022-23 and 2023-24) and better for the other two and let's face it, 2021-22 doesn't really count.

 

 

[Keegans Export]

Last 7 games of previous seasons;

24/25 W3 D1 10pts

23/24 W4 D1 13pts

22/23 W3 D3 12pts

21/22 W5 D0 15pts

 

So 12-13pts on average, which would be 54-55pts by the end of the season.

 

Thank you @Coffee_Johnny for doing what I've done but better and faster 

 

 

Edited March 26 by Keegans Export

[Ben]

6 hours ago, Keegans Export said:

Last 7 games of previous seasons;

24/25 W3 D1 10pts

23/24 W4 D1 13pts

22/23 W3 D3 12pts

21/22 W5 D0 15pts

 

So 12-13pts on average, which would be 54-55pts by the end of the season.

 

Thank you @Coffee_Johnny for doing what I've done but better and faster 

 

 

 

 

He must be one of those AI bots that are currently taking over the world 

[Chicken Dancer]

I’d be astounded if we end up winning 5 out of 7 games.

 

We play Palace at a decent time but Brighton and Bournemouth are seemingly as much of a kryptonite to us as the mackems are.

[AngelofTheFourth]

9 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

This charted, preseason, when we were most likely to pick up points (based on opposition, whether home or away etc.) in order to finish 6th (blue columns). As you know we've been miles off. We are now sitting on 42 points at end of March (1.35 points per game) which is just below our average for the premiership era, which would be at this stage 43 points (1.40 ppg). 

 

We are also 5 points away from the average points return for a 7th place team. In short, that is quite a lot to make up in 7 games.

 

For the optimistic among us, a return of 2.3 ppg would take us to 58 points (average for 7th place finish). For the realists, the best we have ever done under Howe (admittedly for a whole half season) is 2.0ppg (last half of 2021-22; and first half of 2022-23). There may well have been times where we picked up 16 points in 7 games (off to check...).

 

Ok, there have been a few times we have picked up 16 points or more in 7 games, e.g. beginning of 2021, end of 2022, later in that 2022-23 season, once in 2023-24, Dec-Jan run 2024-25 and again later in that season. So it isn't impossible to imagine. 

 

We have never quite managed it, under Howe, for the last 7 games of the season though:

15 points in 2021-22

12 points in 2022-23

13 points in 2023-24

10 points in 2024-25.

 

Incidentally, the idea that we always do better at the end of the season isn't supported by the fact that the points return for the last 7 games in Howe's four seasons is worse than the season's average for two seasons (2022-23 and 2023-24) and better for the other two and let's face it, 2021-22 doesn't really count.

 

 

 

With these stats and the fact we are 11th with so many teams fighting for the same spots, I can't believe there are even people claiming we could make a push for UCL (most mot being our own fanbase). 54 points seems about right for what we can expect. which all the top 4 are currently on

[Coffee_Johnny]

3 hours ago, Ben said:

 

He must be one of those AI bots that are currently taking over the world 

More of a whey-aye bot. 

[The Fountain]

On 24/03/2026 at 19:44, RUHRLYASLEEVESUP said:

Fair to say Makams have more chance of Europe than us ? 

We'll finish above them, they'll be back to being average/shit and unable to score more than 1 goal a game.

[RUHRLYASLEEVESUP]

9 minutes ago, The Fountain said:

We'll finish above them, they'll be back to being average/shit and unable to score more than 1 goal a game.

We’ve said that all season 

 

 

[The Fountain]

2 hours ago, RUHRLYASLEEVESUP said:

We’ve said that all season 

 

 

They can't play us again though. 

[duo]

14 hours ago, Guillaume said:

Chances of us winning 5 from these last 7? 

 

It'll be interesting to what NUFC turns up at Palace.

That's the thing - it's not like we aren't capable just need to string performances together longer than 45 mins

[Guillaume]

2 hours ago, The Fountain said:

We'll finish above them, they'll be back to being average/shit and unable to score more than 1 goal a game.

They were average/shit on Sunday, and our defence helped them score 2 in open play in 90 minutes when they'd only previously scored 1 in 8 games.

 

Hard to be positive that we can now go on a run and finish above them.

[Superior Acuña]

In our remaining fixtures last year, we only got 4 points! Might be the only part of the season we do better this time. Last season we lose all three of these home fixtures, and won 1 (Forest), drew 1 (Palace) and lost the other two of our aways.

[Stottie]

Thanks Johnny, always interested to see this kind of analysis.

fwiw, Opta reckon Brentford 55.67 points, Everton, 55.29 points for seventh and eighth, so a couple of points lower than normal. I would have guess a larger dropoff from normal, given the lack of thrashings and likely high points total for the third relegation spot.

 

If we are going to have a shit end to the season, losing to both Forest and West Ham would probably relegate Spurs. Every cloud has a silver lining etc etc.

[Superior Acuña]

On 28/03/2026 at 15:57, Stottie said:

Thanks Johnny, always interested to see this kind of analysis.

fwiw, Opta reckon Brentford 55.67 points, Everton, 55.29 points for seventh and eighth, so a couple of points lower than normal. I would have guess a larger dropoff from normal, given the lack of thrashings and likely high points total for the third relegation spot.

 

If we are going to have a shit end to the season, losing to both Forest and West Ham would probably relegate Spurs. Every cloud has a silver lining etc etc.

7th do have 5 fewer points now than 7th did at the same stage last season. Brentford on 46, Villa were there on 51 after 31 games last year. It finished with Forest there on 65. 

 

 

Edited March 29 by Superior Acuña

[Coffee_Johnny]

I do think it will be a low average season in terms of points totals for the ‘missed the podium’ also rans. 14 points from the last seven games, which isn’t outrageous/undoable, might just sneak us into Europe. 

 

 

Edited March 29 by Coffee_Johnny

[SteV]

5th place now confirmed as a CL spot.

[NSG]

Still think we get 7th or 8th

 

 

Edited April 7 by NSG

[ramirez]

Chelsea- CIty final is in our favour too I guess, even if it just pushes conference down.

[Stifler]

14 minutes ago, ramirez said:

Chelsea- CIty final is in our favour too I guess, even if it just pushes conference down.

Yeah, assuming Chelsea don’t fall off a cliff and and assuming they both make it to the final, then that would mean 8th place gets a European spot.

[Wallsendmag]

Don't see us making up 4 points on Everton and Brentford in the remaining 7 games so for that reason I can't see us finishing any higher than 9th. I think we finish anywhere between 10th-13th.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

2 hours ago, Wallsendmag said:

Don't see us making up 4 points on Everton and Brentford in the remaining 7 games so for that reason I can't see us finishing any higher than 9th. I think we finish anywhere between 10th-13th.

A win and a draw more than them doesn’t seem crazy mind. 
 

Not that it’s reliable to back us to get any particular wins at the moment. But I do expect an improvement. 

[BermyToon]

Can't see Everton getting more than 4 or 5 points from their remaining games. Brentford are pretty much guaranteed the 7th position. Our best bet is the Conference League through the 8th spot.

 

 

Edited April 8 by BermyToon

[SteV]

33 minutes ago, BermyToon said:

Can't see Everton getting more than 4 or 5 points from their remaining games. Brentford are pretty much guaranteed the 7th position. Our best bet is the Conference League through the 8th spot.

 

 

 

I think one thing this PL season has been is unpredictable. Results have been all over the shop. Very difficult to predict with much confidence how things play out.

[Holloway]

It'll be funny when we beat Arsenal